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Hello everyone, today Avatrade Aihua Foreign Exchange will bring you "[AvaTreade]: European natural gas continues to rise, and short-term trend analysis of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on April 15". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
Global Market Review
1. European and American market trends
Dow futures, mainly blue-chip stocks, rose 0.02%; S&P 500 futures rose 0.08%; and Nasdaq 100 futures, mainly technology stocks, rose 0.17%. European stock markets rose, with the German DAX index rising by 1%; the French CAC40 index falling by 1.02%; and the UK FTSE 100 index rising by 0.83%.
2. Market news interpretation
European natural gas continues to rise in the upward trend of rising avatradescn.competition in Asia
European natural gas prices have expanded as some Asian exporters restrict supply, which may intensify relatively calm fuel avatradescn.competition this year. Benchmark futures rose 3% at one point, rebounding from their lowest level since September. Malaysia, the fifth largest LNG exporter in the past week, has cut fuel exports, coupled with disruptions in factories in Australia and Brunei, has increased support for prices. While contract prices remain well below this year’s peak due to high tariffs and trade disputes expected to hurt global energy demand, markets remain volatile after European gas inventories fell to their lowest levels since 2022 this winter.
The President of the European avatradescn.commission spoke with the Prime Minister of Singapore on a phone call to discuss cooperation
On April 15 local time, European avatradescn.commission President von der Leyen had a phone call with Singapore Prime Minister Wong Xuncai. Von der Leyen said Singapore is a like-minded EU partner, from support for Ukraine to the joint efforts of both sides in climate security and sustainable development. She stressed that this partnership is growing as the bilateral digital trade agreement is about to be signed.
Inflation dataIt is unlikely to have a substantial impact on the Canadian dollar
Dutch International analyst Francesco Pesole said in a report that the forecast of a rise in Canadian inflation data may fuel expectations that the Bank of Canada will suspend interest rate cuts on Wednesday, but the Canadian dollar may not respond much. The dollar against the Canadian dollar is still driven by global stock markets and the dollar confidence crisis, with exchange rates 2% lower than its short-term fair value. This is fully in line with the special risk premium that has led to the US dollar in recent turmoil. Dutch International Group expects it to remain below 1.40 in the near future.
The Bank of Canada is expected to keep interest rates unchanged this week, and expectations of interest rate cuts remain
1. Economists generally predict that the Bank of Canada will keep its main interest rates unchanged at its meeting on Wednesday. Most analysts believe that given the uncertainty of U.S. trade policy and the potential impact of tariffs on inflation, Bank of Canada policymakers may choose to wait and see and wait for the further clarity of the trade situation.
2. NationalBank Financial economist Ethan Currie pointed out that keeping interest rates unchanged should not be regarded as the end of the Bank of Canada's easing cycle. He predicts that the central bank will keep policy interest rates stable at its meeting this week.
3. According to a survey of 14 economists by the Wall Street Journal last week, eight of them are expected to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.75%. If so, this will mark the end of seven consecutive rate cuts since June last year, with a cumulative rate cut of 2.25 percentage points. The Bank of Canada's interest rate cuts during this period were the most radical among the world's major central banks, aiming to curb inflation at an all-time high.
4. However, there are still six economists who believe that given the uncertainty brought by Trump's trade policy, the Bank of Canada may need to cut further interest rates to deal with economic risks.
Growth of global oil demand slows down: trade tensions and supply adjustments
1. In its April 15 report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) stated that global oil demand growth will slow down significantly due to Trump's tariff policy and the trade tensions it triggers, while US oil production growth will also stabilize. The IEA lowered its global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 to 730,000 barrels per day from 1.03 million barrels per day last month, a drop exceeding the adjustment of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on Monday.
2.IEA expects that global oil demand growth will further slow to 690,000 barrels per day in 2026, mainly due to weak global economic outlook and the popularity of electric vehicles.
3. Global oil prices have fallen 13% this month to about $64 a barrel, mainly affected by trade tensions and accelerated production growth of OPEC+. After the IEA report was released, crude oil prices continued to fall. Oil-dependent governments are facing pressure from falling revenues and are preparing to respond by increasing debt issuance and cutting spending.
4. US shale oil producers are also hit by the decline in oil priceshit. The IEA noted that the new tariffs could increase the cost of purchasing steel and equipment, further curbing drilling activities.
5.IEA expects that the total oil supply to non-OPEC+ countries will increase by 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025, far higher than the growth rate of demand, indicating that the market may experience a large surplus. Meanwhile, OPEC also lowered its oil demand expectations for 2025 and 2026 to 1.3 million barrels per day and 1.28 million barrels per day on Monday, down 150,000 barrels per day from the previous month.
The ECB needs to be cautious when cutting interest rates, and the inflation outlook is uncertain
1. Nuveen's analyst Laura Cooper pointed out in a report that the ECB needs to be cautious when cutting interest rates due to uncertainty in the inflation outlook. Although the market generally expects the ECB to cut interest rates this week, the central bank may take a more cautious stance given the high current trade and geopolitical uncertainty.
2. Laura Cooper expects that the ECB will cut interest rates twice after the rate cut this week, lowering the deposit rate to 1.75%. This expectation is based on the negative impact of U.S. tariffs on demand and growth that will emerge before fiscal stimulus has a positive impact.
3. The money market is currently fully included in the expectation of a 25 basis point interest rate cut on Thursday. When formulating interest rate policies, the ECB needs to balance between responding to economic slowdowns and maintaining inflation stability.
German investor sentiment has declined sharply due to US tariff policy
1. German investor sentiment showed the largest drop since the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in 2022, mainly due to the uncertainty brought about by US tariff policy. Data released by the ZEW Economic Research Institute on Tuesday showed that the economic sentiment indicator fell to -14.0 from 51.6 in March, well below the 9.5 points expected by Reuters' survey.
2.ZEW President Achim Wambach said that the repeated changes in U.S. trade policy have had a significant negative impact on Germany's economic expectations. He pointed out: "Not only the possible consequences of the announced retaliatory tariffs on global trade, but the dynamics of its change have also greatly increased global uncertainty."
3. In contrast, the assessment of the current economic situation has improved slightly, with the relevant indicators rising from -87.6 to -81.2. The index is based on a survey of about 350 analysts from German financial institutions, covering banks, insurance avatradescn.companies and large industrial enterprises.
Sweden announces spring budget to stimulate a weak economy
As the global trade war casts shadow on the economic outlook of the largest Nordic country, Sweden has announced spending plans to stimulate a weak economy. A statement released on Tuesday on the Swedish government website showed that the total budget for this spring is 11.5 billion Swedish kroner ($1.2 billion), including tax relief for households. Elizabeth Swantson, Treasury Department, said: "The government has world-class public finances,A spring budget that supports the economy can be submitted while investing in safety and security. "All of this funds will help Sweden's economy accelerate growth. "In the past three years, the Swedish economy has been nearly stagnant, and the Swedish central bank cut interest rates six times since May 2024 to start economic growth. As one of the relatively frugal EU member states, Sweden implemented its most budget stimulus plan in four years last year.
3. Major currency pair trends in the New York Stock Exchange
Euro/USD: As of 20:16 Beijing time, the euro/USD fell and is now at 1.1330, a drop of 0.18%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the euro rose slightly against the dollar at the intraday level as it attempts to gain positive momentum to support it to resume the upward trend. Dominant by the short-term major bullish trend, the relative intensity index (RSI) began to show bullish overlap signals relative to the movement of currency pairs.
GBP/USD: As of 20:16 Beijing time, GBP/USD rose and is now at 1.3236, up 0.36%. Before the New York market, GBPUSD rose slightly, approaching the key resistance level 1.3200, trying to break through this resistance level. Gain an advantage from the positive momentum that dominates the bullish trend in the short term and trade above the EMA50.
Spot gold: As of 20:16 Beijing time, spot gold rose, now at 3222.75, up 0.38%. Before the New York market, gold prices fell on the last trading day, and the price tried to gain positive momentum, which helped to recover and rise again. The main bullish trend dominated, with positive signals avatradescn.coming from (RSI) and trading stability above $3.200.
Spot silver: As of 20:16 Beijing time, spot silver fell, now at 32.320, down 0avatradescn.com.03%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, on the last trading day, silver prices rose slightly. Under the leadership of the short-term bullish correction trend, silver prices fluctuated within a limited range, trying to gain positive momentum that could drive its upwards and trade along the trend line.
Crude oil market: As of 20:16 Beijing time, US oil is downIt fell, now at 61.090, a drop of 0.72%. Before New York, crude oil prices fell in recent intraday trading, affected by negative pressure from the EMA50 and the stability of the stubborn resistance level of the $61.50, trying to gain some positive momentum that could help break through resistance and surpass its negative pressure.
4. Institutional View
Bank of America Survey: Global investors sell U.S. stocks at a record pace
Bank of America Global Research said on Tuesday that global investors have reduced their holdings in U.S. stocks in the past two months, and they believe that the trade war that triggers a global recession is the biggest risk facing the market. In the monthly survey conducted by Bank of America on fund managers, respondents' net reduction in allocations to U.S. stocks was 36%, the highest level in the past two years. In two months, the allocation to U.S. stocks fell by 53 percentage points, setting a record-breaking two-month largest decline. The trend appears to continue, as the record number of respondents also said they intend to cut their allocation to the U.S. stock market. Trump's aggressive tariff plans have triggered a sell-off in U.S. assets, including stocks, dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds. Stocks rebounded on Monday, but the S&P 500 still fell about 8% year to date. Bank of America surveyed 164 investors who manage $386 billion in assets.
The above content is all about "【AvaTreade】: European natural gas continues to rise, and the short-term trend analysis of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on April 15" was carefully avatradescn.compiled and edited by the Avatrade foreign exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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