The core PCE of the United States exceeded expectations in February, and gold ignored everything and hit a new high!

On March 31, in the early trading of Yiya Market in Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 103.85. Last Friday, amid concerns about the US falling into a recession, the market focused more on spending data than inflation data. The US dollar index did not rise but fell under the favorable PCE data. In the end, the US dollar index closed down 0.26% to 104.01. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.2390%; the two-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 3.9220%. Trump's latest tariff policy has sparked investors' concerns about the outbreak of a global trade war, and risk aversion has increased. Spot gold hit a new high, closing up 0.94% to $3,084.33 per ounce, setting its 18th record high this year. Spot silver closed down 0.77% at $34.11 per ounce as investors settled profits. International oil prices have pulled back due to concerns that the US tariff war may trigger a global economic recession. WTI crude oil closed down 1.25% to $68.97 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed down 1.23% to $72.40 per barrel.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovers around 103.85. U.S. core PCE rose 0.4% in February, higher than expected 0.3%, heightening concerns about ongoing U.S. inflation. Overall PCE growth rate was 0.3%, in line with expectations and did not cause major surprises for traders. Trump's recent tariff measures, including a 25% tariff on cars starting April 2, disrupting global trade sentiment. EU officials warned that if the tariffs were implemented as planned, the EU would respond “strong and timely”. Technically, if the US dollar indexClosed at 104.04 below 50MA, it will move towards the next support level in the 103.20–103.40 range.

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovers around 1.0841. Trump announced high tariffs on imported U.S. cars and parts, posing a major threat to the EU (EU). European Central Bank (ECB) chairman Pierre Winche pointed out that tariffs have increased uncertainty about the ECB's interest rate outlook. European Central Bank President Lagarde also said that the trade war could push up EU inflation and be unfavorable to economic growth, suggesting that the European Central Bank may have to continue to cut interest rates to meet the challenges. Technically, if the EUR/USD climbs above the 50MA at 1.0830, it will gain additional upward momentum and move towards resistance levels 1.0920–1.0935.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.2940. After a brief break above the high of 1.3000, the GBP/USD pair entered a clear range of volatility, with a range of between 1.3000 and 1.2870. The dollar's recovery is mainly due to President Trump's proposed reciprocal tariff measures and stronger-than-expected U.S. S&P Global Preliminary Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data that ease market concerns about a slowdown. Technically, if GBP/USD closes above the 1.2950 level, it will move towards the next resistance level 1.3050–1.3070. The RSI is in a mild area and if the right catalyst appears, there is enough room for power.

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

On the Asian session on Monday, gold trading around 3084.09. In the early trading of the Asian market on Monday, gold prices rose to about $3,090. The precious metal has maintained an upward trend as it approaches its all-time high amid concerns that the latest tariff measures by U.S. President Donald Trump could trigger a global trade war. Trump announced last week that it had imposed a 25% tariff on imported cars and light trucks, which is scheduled to take effect on April 3. The measure is based on a fixed tariff of 25% on steel and aluminum, and Trump will also announce the upcoming reciprocal tariffs on Wednesday. Continuing concerns related to trade wars and global economic uncertainty have driven this traditional safe-haven asset - Huangavatradescn.comThe price of gold rose.

Technical: The relative strength index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart has risen above 70, pointing to an overbought state in the short term. The direct resistance above is at $3100 (psychological mark), followed by $3130 (the upper limit of the four-month upward return channel) and $3200 (psychological mark). If gold shows a technical correction, $3060 (the midpoint of the ascending channel) may be considered the first support level, followed by $3000-2990 (static level, lower limit of the ascending channel) and $2980 (20-day simple moving average).

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

On the Asian session on Monday, crude oil trading was around 69.86. International oil prices rose, boosted by a decline in U.S. energy inventories and concerns over tightening global supply. Earlier, U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to impose tariffs on countries that purchased Venezuelan crude oil, raising concerns about escalating geopolitical risks. According to data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday, U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 3.3 million barrels to 433.6 million barrels in the week ended March 21, far exceeding the 965,000 barrel decline expected by analysts in a Reuters survey.

Technical: From a technical perspective, the market faces resistance in the pivot zones of $69.31 and $70.57. However, the most important obstacle is the 52-week moving average of $70.72. Overcoming this level may accelerate the upside, with the next target of $72.11.

Forex market trading reminder on March 31, 2025

①09:30 China's official manufacturing PMI in March

②16:30 UK Central Bank Mortgage License in February

③20:00 Germany's March CPI monthly rate initial value

④21:45 US Chicago PMI in March

⑤22:30 US Dallas Fed Business Activities Index in March

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