U.S. employment and inflation both cool down, G7 countries plan to bypass Trump's cuts in Russian oil prices

On June 13, early trading in Asian market on Friday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 98.05. On Thursday, data showed that both U.S. jobs and inflation cooled, supporting the Fed's interest rate cuts twice this year. The US dollar index fell for the second consecutive day, finally closing down 0.78% to 97.864, hitting a new low in more than three years. The yield on the US Treasury continued to decline, with the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield closing at 4.368%, and the 2-year US Treasury yield closing at 3.918%. Benefiting from the tightening of the Middle East situation and the recovery of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut bet, spot gold continued to rise, once approaching the $3,400 mark during the session, and finally closed up 0.94%, closing at $3,386.83/ounce; spot silver took out a V-shaped reversal and finally closed up 0.3%, at $36.36/ounce. As traders took profits after oil prices soared on the previous trading day, international crude oil opened higher and then fell, but the US rebounded before the session and recovered all intraday declines. WTI crude oil fell by more than 2% at one point and finally closed up 0.6% at $67.58 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed up 0.32% at $69.68 per barrel.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovers around 98.05. Risk aversion and hopes for the Fed's interest rate cut are punishing the dollar. The market is increasingly skeptical of Trump's ability to reach a major trade deal. Recent Fed disagreements with the ECB have put additional pressure on the dollar. Technically, the U.S. dollar index is trying to close below the support level of 98.00–98.20. If this attempt is successful, it will go to a range of 96.70–96.90Next support level.

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovers around 1.1552. The euro/dollar rose for the second consecutive day, up more than 0.70%, trading below the three-year high of 1.1631 that was hit earlier, as traders digested the latest U.S. producer price index (PPI) reports and employment data. Technically, if the EUR/USD successfully closes above resistance level 1.1550–1.1570, it will move towards the next resistance level 1.1685–1.1700. RSI is in the overbought area, so the risk of a callback is increasing.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3574. The GBP/USD climbed to a 40-month high on Thursday, closing above the 1.3600 mark for the first time in more than three years. Large-cap investor sentiment climbed after U.S. producer price index (PPI) inflation data fell below expectations, and the dollar was hit hard as investors re-bet on the Fed's interest rate cut in September. Technically, breaking through the resistance level 1.3620–1.3640 will push the GBP/USD to the next resistance level 1.3735-1.3750.

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

On Friday, gold trading around 3405.71. Sentiment remains optimistic after a series of positive inflation reports in the United States that forced the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates as the economy has not yet shown the full impact of tariffs on prices. The labor market continues to show some weakness as the number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the United States exceeded 240,000 for the second consecutive week.

Technical: As the price trend is still constructive, gold prices seem to be ready to test higher levels in the short term. Gold hit a series of higher highs and higher lows, trading at close to $3,400, which could open the door for further gains once liquidated. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is bullish and has broken through its latest peak, indicating that buyers are ready to go. So if gold expands its gains above $3,400, it could test key resistance levels. Next is the $3450 mark, followed by the all-time high of $3500. On the contrary, if gold falls below $3300, look for downward pressure to push gold towards the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) $3,275, followed by high support at $3,167 on April 3.

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

On Friday, crude oil trading was around 70.73. Israel launched a preemptive strike against Iran. According to a reporter from the Israel Times, Israeli Defense Minister Katz declared a state of emergency across the country. Affected by the sharp rise in geopolitical situation in the Middle East, the United States and Lam oil rose rapidly, and the increase rapidly expanded to 4%.

Technical: Crude oil broke the 70 mark in the short term, and the daily level smart money indicator shows that there is a short order block at the 70.25-72 mark, and this is also a band high point, which is expected to limit the rise of its oil price. The support level below first focuses on the 68 mark, and then the market accelerates upward at 67.55.

202avatradescn.comForex market trading reminder on June 13, 5

①14:00UK April three-month GDP monthly rate

②14:00UK April manufacturing output monthly rate

③14:00UK April seasonally adjusted avatradescn.commodity trade account

④14:00UK April industrial output monthly rate

⑤20:30UK initial request for unemployment benefits in the week from the United States to June 7th Number of people

⑥20:30 US May PPI annual rate

⑦20:30 US May PPI monthly rate

⑧22:30 US to June 6 EIA natural gas inventory

⑨The next day, the Federal Reserve released its quarterly financial account report

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