Trump's tendency to avoid intensifying conflict in the Middle East, tensions in the Middle East have increased, gold prices hit a week's high

Basic news

On Friday (June 13, Beijing time), spot gold trading was around 3384.74, and gold prices hit a week-high on Thursday, helped by intensifying tensions in the Middle East and cooling of US economic data to boost a new round of betting on the Fed's interest rate cut; U.S. crude oil trading was around 68.50 US dollars per barrel, and oil prices closed slightly lower on Thursday as traders took profits after a sharp rise of more than 4% in the previous trading day. Trump said on Thursday that Israel’s crackdown on Iran “is very likely”, but added that he would not call it imminent and tend to avoid conflict.

Stock and P.P. 500 closed higher on Thursday, with Oracle's strong performance outlook boosting market optimism about artificial intelligence (AI), overshadowing concerns about tensions in the Middle East and the impact of Boeing's decline. Oracle rose 13.3%, a record high after the cloud service provider raised its annual revenue growth forecast due to strong demand for AI-related services. Technology giants Microsoft, Nvidia and Broadcom all rose by more than 1%.

B.RileyWealth chief market strategist Art Hogan said Oracle is another part of the mosaic of AI capital expenditure and the ongoing demand for more avatradescn.computing power, which is driving the AI ​​revolution, and when the wind blows in this direction, you will surely see key avatradescn.companies such as Microsoft and Nvidia be boosted.

Boeing fell nearly 5%. A Air India Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner passenger plane that flew to London crashed shortly after taking off from Ahmedabad, killing more than 240 people. The Middle East is in tensionSigns of intensification of the situation have also dragged down the global market.

U.S. President Trump said on Wednesday that U.S. personnel are evacuating the Middle East because it could be a "dangerous place" and that the United States will not allow Iran to possess nuclear weapons. U.S. and Iranian officials are scheduled to hold their sixth round of quarantine dialogue in Oman on Sunday.

The S&P 500 index climbed 0.38% to close at 6045.26 points. The Nasdaq rose 0.24% to 19,662.49 points; the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.24% to 42,967.62 points.

The US exchanges have accumulated a total of 23.5 billion shares, with a large trading volume, with an average daily trading volume of 18 billion shares in the previous 20 full trading days.

Eight of the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 rose, with the utility sector leading the rise, up 1.26%, and the information technology sector followed closely behind, up 1.01%.

As gold prices hit a weekly high, the shares of gold mining avatradescn.companies listed in the United States also rose. Newmont Mining rose 4.9%, HarmonyGold rose 4.1%, and AngloGoldAshanti rose 6.4%.

Producer price data is lower than expected, and initial jobless claims suggests a possible softening of labor markets, which has helped alleviate investors' concerns about price pressures caused by tariffs, while also strengthening expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates.

According to CME’s FedWatch tool, traders expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points by September is 60%.

Goldman Sachs lowered the probability of a U.S. recession from 35% to 30% as uncertainty about Trump's tariff policy eased. Gold prices hit a weekly high on Thursday, helped by rising tensions in the Middle East and a cooling U.S. economic data fueled a new round of bets on the Fed's interest rate cut. Spot gold rose 0.9% to $3,383.22 per ounce, its highest level since June 5. U.S. gold futures closed up 1.8% to $3,402.4.

Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at ZanierMetals, said gold rose for the second consecutive day, mainly due to intensified geopolitical risks. If gold breaks through $3400 again, it will still face small resistance at $3417 and $3431, but it is likely to break through all-time highs in the end.

U.S. President Trump said the United States is evacuating personnel from the Middle East because it "could be a dangerous place." Iranian Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh also said on Wednesday that if Iran is hit, it will retaliate against U.S. military bases in the region.

In addition, data shows that the United States in MayProducer prices rose less than expected. The number of initial unemployment claims last week remained at a high level, and the labor market continued to slow steadily.

Traders expect the Fed to cut interest rates in September at 80%, with a second cut as early as October, while it is expected to be in December before the data is released.

Spot silver rose 0.1% to $36.25 an ounce, reaching its highest since 2012 on Monday. Grant said that under the support of years of supply shortages and a renewed technical strengthening, silver seems to be expected to reach $40 if it breaks through the $38 mark.

Platinum rose 2.8% to $1,291.09 per ounce, hovering at a more than four-year high; palladium fell about 2% to $1,058.08 per ounce. Oil market

Oil prices closed slightly lower on Thursday as traders took profits after a sharp rise of more than 4% in the previous trading day. Oil prices rose on Wednesday, amid concerns that worsening tensions in the Middle East would disrupt oil supply.

Brent crude oil futures closed down 0.6% at $69.36 a barrel. U.S. crude oil futures fell 0.2% to close at $67.97 a barrel.

U.S. President Trump said on Thursday that Israel’s crackdown on Iran is “very likely”, but added that he would not call it imminent and tend to avoid conflict.

The U.S. previous decision to withdraw personnel from the Middle East caused crude oil to rise more than 4% on Wednesday, reaching its highest level since early April.

StoneXEnergy analyst Alex Hodes said that from multiple technical indicators, the surge has brought the market into overbought areas, so a brief pullback may be required.

U.S. and Iranian officials are scheduled to hold a sixth round of talks on Tehran's uranium enrichment plan on Sunday, according to officials from both countries and Oman mediators.

Trump has repeatedly threatened to crack down on Iran if nuclear negotiations fail to reach an agreement. Tehran insists that its nuclear activities are used for peaceful purposes and says it will retaliate if Iran suffers a blow and strikes U.S. military bases in the region.

Analyst Arne Rasmussen, a global risk management avatradescn.company, said in a LinkedIn post: "For the oil market, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is definitely a nightmare."

He added: "If Iran blocks this narrow throat duct, it could affect up to 20% of the world's oil delivery."

JPMorgan said that if the Strait of Hormuz is closed, oil prices could soar to $120-130 a barrel, which the bank believes is serious but has a lower risk.

Foreign exchange market

The dollar fell sharply on Thursday, with U.S. inflation data in May below expectations, suggesting that the Fed may resume interest rate cuts as soon as possible, while the safe-haven yen and Swiss franc were boosted by intensifying tensions in the Middle East.

The euro rose to its highest against the dollar in nearly four years. The dollar fell to two-month lowest against the Swiss francThe yen fell to its lowest level in about a week.

Data shows that the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) rose less than expected in May, and was suppressed by the decline in prices of services such as air tickets. The report suppressed the US dollar. Wednesday's data also showed inflation cooler, with the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) gaining less than expected.

UBS Forex analyst Vassili Serebriakov said that although he noticed that U.S. economic growth appears to be slowing, inflation data has not shown the impact of higher tariffs.

Serebriakov said, "We have digested the expectations of the Fed's interest rate cut twice this year, and the expectations last week were less than twice. These data are believed to have the potential to leave room for the Fed to cut interest rates early or more."

The futures market, which tracks the Fed's policy rates, has increased its bets that will cut interest rates twice in a row starting in September. Before the data was released, the market's bets were to start interest rate cuts in September and to drop again in December.

The U.S. producer and consumer price data in May were lower than expected, and Nomura lowered its expectations for the increase in the core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index from 0.349% before the announcement of the PPI. This will push the core PCE three-month annualized inflation rate to its lowest since November 2020, at 1.52%.

Nomura wrote in a research report: "The monthly core PCE inflation rate has seen a moderate reading for three consecutive times, suggesting that the recent core inflation trend has slowed down."

Also data show that the number of initial unemployment claims in the United States remained flat at a relatively high level last week, and labor market conditions continued to slow down steadily.

Investors are rushing to buy safe-haven assets, and geopolitical risks have become the focus of attention. Earlier, U.S. President Trump said that some American personnel are being transferred, given that "the Middle East may be a dangerous place", and that Washington will not allow Iran to develop nuclear weapons. Analysts point out that the dollar is a key barometer reflecting sentiment in trade dialogue, while geopolitical instability prompts investors to buy Swiss francs and yen. In afternoon trading, the US dollar fell more than 1% against the Swiss franc to 0.8114 Swiss francs, which had previously fallen to its lowest since April 22, of 0.8104. The dollar fell 0.7% against the yen to 143.59 yen, hitting its weekly low earlier.

The euro once hit a high of $1.1632 against the US dollar since October 2021, with New York rising 0.8% at $1.1576 at the end of the trading day.

Some analysts say the euro has also gained support from the hawkish ECB, which has suggested its year-long easing cycle will be paused after inflation finally returns to its 2% target.

In terms of trade, Trump expressed his willingness to extend the July 8 deadline for avatradescn.completing dialogue with other countries. But he added that the U.S. will send letters to dozens of other countries in the avatradescn.coming weeks to clarify trade terms, which can be accepted or rejected by those countries.

Some votesInvestors pointed out that this has allowed the risk of a significant increase in import tariffs in the United States on July 9 to continue, which is a disadvantage for the US dollar. The U.S. dollar index fell 0.5% to 97.95, hitting its lowest since March 2022 at 97.786 earlier.

International News

The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September was 76.3%, a slight decrease from the previous day

According to CME's "Feder Observation": the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in June is 97.9%, and the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 2.1%. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 75.6%, the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 25 basis points is 23.9%, and the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 50 basis points is 0.5%. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 23.7%, and the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 25 basis points and 50 basis points is 59.4% and 16.6% respectively.

IMF: The global trade surge before Trump tariffs has gradually weakened

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said there are signs that the growth of trade and economic activities carried out in advance to avoid US President Trump's tariffs is beginning to weaken, and the global economy is still facing high uncertainty. IMF spokesman Julie Kozack said at a press conference on Thursday that the recent agreement between the United States and the United Kingdom to reduce tariffs, coupled with the White House's April 9 decision to suspend some of Trump's high tariffs, are "a little positive signal to economic activity." But data show that slowing economic activity and doubling U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs constitute a “complex situation.”

Trump hopes to raise the cost of prosecuting policies such as draft tax legislation for prosecutions of his “big beautiful” tax legislation

U.S. President Trump and his allies are seeking an alternative strategy to fend off a growing number of court orders that hinder the implementation of his policies: raising the financial cost of prosecuting government personnel. House Republicans hope to force personnel prosecuting the U.S. government to provide finance to pay for the government’s expenses, provided they win a lawsuit to temporarily stop Trump’s policy but ultimately lose. The measure is included in their "magnificent and beautiful" tax and expenditure bill, which puts judges' power to contempt of court trials against U.S. officials who violate their orders depends on the payment.

Trump says it may raise auto tariffs and further protect the domestic auto industry

U.S. President Donald Trump said he may raise U.S. auto tariffs to boost domestic auto manufacturing, a move that could further intensify tensions with trading partners. Trump spoke at a bill signing ceremony on Thursday. The bill ends California's ban on the sale of new gasoline-powered cars in 2035. It was a long-awaited victory for some automakers and oil avatradescn.companies, who have criticized the rules for not being fulfilled. Trump said raising the current 25% auto tariff level could provide further protection for the domestic auto industry, mentioning that GM plans to invest 40 in U.S. factories in the next two years$100 million to avoid tariffs. "I may raise this tariff level in the near future. The higher you raise, the more likely they are to build factories here."

U.S. President Trump recommends the Fed to cut interest rates by 200 basis points

U.S. President Trump: I hope (the Federal Reserve) lowers interest rates, we have a lot of short-term debt, and I like long-term low-interest debt. If we lower the interest rate by 1%, it means paying 1% less. If interest rates are cut by two percentage points, the interest will be paid less.

The International Atomic Energy Agency passed resolutions involving Iran, Iran responded to the Iranian resolutions. On the 12th local time, Kamal Wandi, spokesman of the Iranian Organization, said in response to the resolutions involving Iran adopted by the Council of the International Atomic Energy Agency that Iran will launch a third uranium enrichment facility and upgrade the first generation of uranium enrichment machines to the sixth generation. Uranium enrichment activity will increase significantly. Kamal Wandi said, "We have warned before that we will adjust our actions."

The United States informs Israel will not directly participate in any military strikes against Iran

According to the AXIOS website, two U.S. sources and an Israeli source said that the Trump administration told the Israeli government that the United States will not directly participate in any Israeli military strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities. It would be a separate mission, not a joint operation, at least in terms of bombing and other offensive operations. Sources did not disclose whether the United States would provide logistical assistance such as intelligence or air refueling. The United States, Israel and Iran are all preparing for what may happen, namely the breakdown of the U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, Israel launches attacks on Iran, and Iran retaliates by attacking Israel and U.S. bases in the region, which may happen around next week.

Domestic News

The domestic trade credit insurance avatradescn.community was established for the first phase to provide 10 billion yuan in insurance coverage

Today (June 12), the domestic trade credit insurance avatradescn.community was officially established. The joint insurance system is avatradescn.composed of many domestic insurance avatradescn.companies. Through the direct insurance and reinsurance connection model, the domestic trade insurance underwriting capacity is improved, and the problems such as insufficient accumulation of domestic trade insurance data and insufficient protection capacity are effectively solved. The first phase of the insured body will provide 10 billion yuan in insurance coverage to support enterprises to expand the domestic demand market and serve the country's consumption strategy.

Li Chunlin, deputy director of the National Development and Reform avatradescn.commission: Support Shenzhen to take the lead in carrying out the pilot of cross-border fund pool business in integrated domestic and foreign currencies. As of the end of May, the business volume reached US$340 billion.

Li Chunlin, deputy director of the National Development and Reform avatradescn.commission, said that in the past five years since the implementation of the Shenzhen avatradescn.comprehensive reform pilot, a large number of innovative measures have been introduced in promoting innovative development, and have achieved significant results in supporting high-quality development. For example, it supports Shenzhen to take the lead in carrying out the pilot of cross-border fund pool business in one domestic and foreign currency, and allows multinational groups to handle centralized collection and payment of domestic and foreign currency by overseas member avatradescn.companies in China, realizing self-selecting of currency, free transfer, and mixed funds. As of the end of May this year, 55 multinational avatradescn.companies participated in the pilot, with a business volume of US$340 billion, betterThe local area coordinates two markets and two resources at home and abroad. Improve the system and mechanism of finance to support scientific and technological innovation, explore the path to realizing intellectual property securitization, and has issued a total of 104 intellectual property securitization products with an issuance scale of 22.5 billion yuan, benefiting 1,535 enterprises, effectively supporting the development of technological innovation enterprises.

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