Trump's tariff policy is "immutable"! , the US dollar index fell

On March 5, early trading in Asia on Wednesday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 105.64. On Tuesday, the US dollar index continued to decline and fell near the 105 mark, finally closing down 0.93% to 105.56. The yield on U.S. Treasury rebounded sharply, with the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closing at 4.248%; the yield on two-year U.S. Treasury, which is more sensitive to monetary policy, closed at 4.005%. The euro rose 1% against the dollar during the day, hitting a three-month high as German conservatives and Social Democrats agreed to establish a 500 billion euro infrastructure fund and would reform lending rules to increase defense spending. Against the backdrop of the escalation of trade conflict after US President Trump imposed new tariffs, spot gold continued to rebound, and once surged to $2,920, and finally closed up 0.83% to $2,917.64 per ounce. Spot silver closed up 0.92% to $31.96 per ounce. As OPEC+ confirmed 4https://avatradescn.com's monthly increase in production and Trump's tariff policy will have an impact on crude oil demand, the two oils continued to decline. WTI crude oil continued to fall during the day and fell to an intraday low of $66.53, finally closing down 0.67% to $67.78/barrel; Brent crude oil closed down 0.54% to $71/barrel.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovers around 105.64. Investors sold the dollar after the U.S. confirmed new tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China, but did not lastApproval is approved for postponement. Market volatility has been further exacerbated as Canada and China announced countermeasures. Technically, if the U.S. dollar index closes below the 106.00 level, it will move towards the support level of 105.50–105.70.

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovers around 1.0617. The euro/dollar rose last Tuesday to close at 1.0626, up 1.32%. The US PCE inflation report meets expectations, with overall monthly PCE stable at 0.3%. Core PCE rose slightly to 0.3% from 0.2% in December, while overall PCE for the year was 2.6%, slightly higher than expected but was on par with December’s figures. Core PCE fell to 2.6% from 2.9% revised in December. Technically, the EUR/USD is trying to close above resistance at 1.0515–1.0530. If this attempt is successful, the EUR/USD will move towards the next resistance level 1.0600–1.0615.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.2784. The pound/dollar rose on Tuesday to close at 1.2794, or 0.74%. The pound's gains against the dollar have been extended to two days as U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China avatradescn.come into effect. Although the market is risk averse, traders will punish the dollar as the economic outlook fades. Technically, if GBP/USD climbs above the 1.2730 level, it will move towards the next resistance level 1.2810–1.2830.

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

Which trading was held in Asian trading on Wednesday, gold trading was around 2914.88. Gold prices climbed amid weak dollar as new tariffs escalated with new tariffs avatradescn.coming into effect on Tuesday as the trade war between the United States, Canada, Mexico and China escalated. Therefore, the plunge in the US dollar supported precious metals. Meanwhile, recent U.S. data has sparked concerns about the recession. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model expects GDP in the first quarter of 2025 to be -2.8%, down from 1.6% estimates on Monday.

Technical: After the bottoming out around $2,830, gold buyers seem to have regained control and are ready to push gold to retest the all-time high of $2,954. Although the momentum is bullish, such as the relative strength index (RSI) shows that buyers must first recover $2,950. If the latter and all-time highs are broken, the next resistance will be the $3,000 mark. On the other hand, a gold price drop below $2,900 may pave the way for further declines. The first support level will be the February 14 low of $2877, followed by the February 12 swing low of $2864.

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

On Wednesday, crude oil trading around 67.61. On Monday, OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia said plans to increase oil production will begin in April. This growth follows a series of production cuts carried out by OPEC+ to stabilize the market. U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed that tariffs on Canada and Mexico will take effect on Tuesday. These measures Trump had previously reiterated a new March date, initially setting it to April. In addition, tariffs on Chinese imported goods have been increased from 10% to 20%. Analysts expect tariffs will curb economic activity and energy demand, thereby suppressing WTI prices.

Technical: Crude oil tested a new low as the callback continued. Traders continue to pay attention to OPEC+'s decision to increase production in April. If WTI crude successfully closes below the $67.00-$67.50 support level, it will move to the next level of $62.50-$63.00.

Forex market trading reminder on March 5, 2025

09:45 China's Caixin Service Industry PMI in February

10:10 US President Trump delivered his first speech in Congress

11:30 State Information Office held a briefing to interpret the "Government Work Report"

15:30 Switzerland's February CPI monthly rate

15:45 France's January industrial output monthly rate

16:50 France's February service industry PMI final value

16:55 Germany's February service industry PMI final value

17:00 euro zone Final value of service industry PMI in February

17:30 Final value of service industry PMI in the UK in February

18:00 Eurozone January PPI monthly rate

21:15 US ADP employment in February

22:30 Bank of England governor and senior officials answered questions from lawmakers

22:45 US S&P global service industry PMI in February

23:00 US February ISM non-manufacturing PMI

23:00 US January factory order monthly rate

23:30 US EIA crude oil inventories in the week from February 28

23:30 US>23:30 EIA Cushing crude oil inventories in the week from the United States to February 28

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