The market has digested the impact of tariffs, and the selling pressure of the US index has not decreased!

Asian market market review

On Thursday, the US dollar index maintained a downward trend throughout the day as Trump's tariff policy brought uncertainty prospects to the US economy. As of now, the US dollar is quoted at 104.33.

Feder Collins: Given the outlook, the Fed may keep interest rates stable for a longer period of time.

Federal Barkin: Regarding tariffs, given the recent high inflation, it may have a greater impact on prices, but it is unclear where interest rates will stabilize and how businesses and consumers in affected countries will respond.

Federal Barkin: We are not in a recession.

European avatradescn.commission spokesman: The EU is preparing to respond to the new import tariffs announced by the United States, but the time has not been determined. The EU's response will be timely, powerful and precise; the EU plans to crack down on U.S. service exports, with targeting large tech avatradescn.companies.

Canadian Prime Minister: Canada will respond to US tariffs next week; Canada's Ontario Governor: The United States will give exemptions from automobile tariffs in whole or in part.

Brazilian President Lula: Retaliatory tariffs will be imposed on American products.

Mexico's Minister of Economy: Mexico will issue steel and automobile issues on April 2notify.

The South Korean government will announce emergency measures against automakers in April. The number of initial unemployment claims in the United States recorded 224,000 in the week ending January 11, lower than the expected 225,000; the annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the fourth quarter was revised up to 2.4%, and the annualized quarterly rate of core PCE price index in the fourth quarter was revised down to 2.6%.

The number of initial unemployment claims in the United States recorded 224,000 in the week from January 11, lower than the expected 225,000; the annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the fourth quarter was revised up to 2.4%, and the annualized quarterly rate of core PCE price index in the fourth quarter was revised down to 2.6%.

It is reported that India will relax restrictions on foreign investment to attract foreign capital to return to the stock market. Australia will be elected on May 3.

Summary of institutional views

Dutch International: Japan's inflation data strengthened, providing support for the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike in May

Dutch International Group said that Tokyo's inflation data was stronger than expected, strengthening the reason why the Bank of Japan would raise interest rates as early as May. There are signs that price pressures in both goods and services are expanding. Japan's Tokyo CPI annual rate recorded 2.9% in March, up from 2.8% after correction in February and 2.7% higher than market expectations. Core inflation also rose to 2.4%, surpassing the general expectation of 2.2%. Analysts at Dutch International pointed out that although prices of fresh food and utilities fell slightly that month, wider inflation pressures remained. "This trend reinforces our long-standing view that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates in May," said Dutch International in a report after the data was released.

Fabric Bank: The euro's 1.XX target has been established, and the 1.20 era is about to begin

We believe that the watershed moment of Europe's shift to loose fiscal policy is significantly positive for the euro and will promote https://avatradescn.com to lift global investors out of trading euro foreign exchange positions that have been reduced for many years. Our current goal is to increase the euro to 1.12 against the dollar this year and to 1.20 in 2026. Our forecast for 1.12 is based on the idea that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in 2025 and the European Central Bank cut interest rates twice. In other words, we believe that although short-term spreads move in a favorable direction for the dollar, the euro may still rise this year, as structural factors offset short-term cyclical dynamics.

With short-term interest rate spreads also favoring the euro to higher against the dollar, we expect the euro to reach 1.20 faster than expected. As short-term cyclical dynamics avatradescn.complicate the euro outlook and the euro has risen sharply, we expect more upside potential for other varieties other than the U.S. dollar. However, we believe that the above dynamics have turned to put the euro on an upward trend and the euro decline will be short-lived.

We expect new financesThe measures will contribute 0.2% to the eurozone economic growth in 2025 and 0.3% in 2026 (to 1.1% and 1.3% respectively). We still expect the ECB to lower deposit rates to 2% by June, but we note that risks do not seem to be as inclined to lower terminal rates as before, and that the likelihood of the ECB cutting rates at each meeting has increased. It is crucial for Forex that the ECB rate hike in 2026 is now a reality.

Bank of America: Trump's policy and EU reforms may help the euro strengthen in the next two years

Bank of America analysts pointed out in a report that due to President Trump's policy plans and historic EU reforms, the euro is likely to show a stronger trend in this year and next two years. Analysts believe that Trump's tariff policies and the avatradescn.combination of government spending cuts may lead to the US economy falling into stagflation, that is, high inflation and weak economic growth coexist. At the same time, Germany's fiscal expansion plan and the EU's defense spending plan will become an important turning point in the economic development of the eurozone.

Deutsche Bank: The pressure on the Turkish lira has not been relieved

avatradescn.commerz analyst Tata Gosh pointed out in a report that the pressure on the Turkish lira has not been relieved and officials may be using strict controls and interventions to prevent the lira from falling further sharply. He said policymakers appear to be defending the "bottom line" of the dollar-Turkish lira at around 38. He also said the scale of loss of foreign exchange reserves in such interventions is "neither ideal nor sustainable." Gosh said that unless the turmoil caused by Turkish President Erdogan's rival Ekrem ended, the Lira is likely to break through the current defense soon and depreciate significantly.

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