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Hello everyone, today Avatrade Aihua Foreign Exchange will bring you "[Aihua Foreign Exchange Platform]: Be careful that the United States suddenly flew out of the "black swan" this week!". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
The US dollar index fell more than 3% last week, marking its largest single-week decline since November 2022. Monday’s economic calendar won’t release any data that has a greater impact, allowing investors to continue to focus on geopolitics and headlines around U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade policy.
In early March, the dollar suffered huge losses against major currencies, as disappointing macroeconomic data releases, coupled with Trump administration tariffs, re-raised concerns about a downturn in the U.S. economy. In early Monday, the U.S. dollar index fell slightly below 104.00, while U.S. stock index futures fell 0.4% to 0.6%.
On Friday, data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that non-farm employment increased by 151,000 in February. This figure is lower than the market expectations of 160,000 points. Other details of the employment report show that the unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.1% from 4% in January, while the participation rate fell to 62.4% from 62.6% in the same period. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell pointed out in his last public appearance before the March policy meeting on Friday that the uncertainty of Trump administration policies was high, reiterating that they could maintain policy restraint for longer if inflation progress stagnates, or if the labor market unexpectedly weakens.
Basic foreign exchange market trend:
Euro/USD maintains bullish momentum, rising more than 4% the previous week. In early European trading on Monday, the pair remained near 1.0850, in a consolidation phase.
GBP/USD benefited from widespread weakness in the U.S. dollar and rose more than 2.5% last week. Bank of England (BoE)A quarterly avatradescn.communiqué will be released later that day. As of press time, the pair had little change in the trading price of the day around 1.2920.
The USD/CAD gained traction and ended its three-day decline on Friday. In early European session on Monday, the pair fluctuated in a narrow channel just above 1.4350. On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada (BoC) will announce monetary policy decisions. Meanwhile, Trump told FoxNews over the weekend that tariffs planned to be imposed on April 2 on some goods imported from Canada and Mexico could be raised.
The USD/JPY remained sluggish and traded in the negative area below 148.00 to start the new week. Data from Japan earlier in the day showed that after a 4.4% increase in December, labor cash income rose 2.8% year-on-year in January, lower than market expectations of 3.2%.
Bulle market fundamentals:
Gold recorded weekly gains, but it is difficult to accumulate bullish momentum after recovering $2,900. Gold stabilized around $2,910 and began the European session.
Analysis of major currency trends:
Euro: The intraday bias of the euro/dollar is still moderately upward. The current rebound from 1.0176 should target 161.8% forecast of 1.0176 to 1.0531, from 1.0358 to 1.0932. A resolute breakthrough will pave the way for the next step to return to the key resistance level of 1.1274. On the downside, the secondary support level below https://avatradescn.com1.0764 will turn to bias neutral and bring consolidation, and then rise again.
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