The ceasefire in the Russian-Ukraine conflict remains to be discussed, tariff uncertainty rises, gold price points to the 3,000 mark

Basic news

On Friday (March 14, Beijing time), spot gold trading was around 2987.38, and gold prices soared to a record high on Thursday, approaching the key milestone of $3,000 per ounce, driven by rising tariff uncertainty and betting on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy relaxation; U.S. crude oil rose slightly, trading around $66.86 per barrel, and oil prices fell more than 1% on Thursday. The market weighed macroeconomic concerns, including the risk that the tariff war between the United States and other countries could hit global demand, and the uncertainty brought about by the U.S. ceasefire proposal from Russia-Ukraine.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 1.30% to 40,813.57 points on Thursday; the S&P 500 fell 1.39% to 5,521.52 points; and the Nasdaq fell 1.96% to 17,303.01 points.

Focus on this day

News said that US President Trump and Russian President Putin will have a phone call.

Stock market

U.S. stocks closed down sharply on Thursday, with the S&P 500 confirmed to enter a revised range, after the cooling of inflation data was offset by U.S. concerns that the escalating tariff wars launched by some of its largest trading partners could rekindle inflation and put the economy into recession.

In the latest round of Trump's multi-line trade war, the EU's response to the US's full steel and aluminum tariffs is to impose a 50% tax on whiskey exports from the US, prompting President TrumpThreat on TruthSocial to impose a 200% tariff on imported European wines and spirits. The three major U.S. stock indexes fell across the board, and the declines in technology stocks and technology-related large-cap stocks dragged down the Nasdaq index by nearly 2%. "The market sentiment is very bad, and there are new tariff news every day, which puts pressure on the market. You will see this in some of the more sensitive areas of the market, especially the 'Big Seven' with higher valuations," added Dickson. "It's not feeling good now."

The S&P 500 closes 10.1% below its February 19 record high, confirming that the vane has entered a correction period since then. On March 6, the Nasdaq index closed 10.4% below its all-time closing high set on December 16, confirming that it is in a correction range.

The Dow Jones Transportation Index, widely regarded as a barometer of the US economic health, closes 18.9% below the historical closing high set on November 25; it will be confirmed to be in a bear market after falling below 20% or more. "There is still a lot of uncertainty in the economy. Some of these uncertainties are certainly driven by tariffs, but there are others that lead investors to think that maybe a hard landing will happen eventually," said Chuck Carlson, CEO of Horizon Investment Services. "A Reuters/Ipsos conducted a March 11-12 show that 57% of participants believe Trump's move to revitalize the economy is too capricious, and 53% believe that the tariff war does more harm than good.

The Labor Department's Producer Price Index (PPI) appears to echo Wednesday's CPI data, with lower-than-expected readings seemingly confirming inflation is still winding down as it approaches the Fed's 2% annual target.

This, along with a moderate report on initial unemployment claims, ensures to a certain extent that inflation is currently in the right direction and the labor market has a solid foundation.

The market is also paying attention to the ongoing wrestling on Capitol Hill, where lawmakers scramble to pass a temporary spending bill before a deadline to avoid a partial shutdown of the government.

Of the 11 major sectors of the S&P 500, except for utilities, all sectors closed lower, with avatradescn.communications services and non-discretionary consumer declines the most. Intel jumped 14.6% after the chip maker appointed industry veteran Chen Liwu as CEO.

Gold market

Gold prices surged to record highs on Thursday, approaching a key milestone of $3,000 an ounce, driven by rising tariff uncertainty and bets on the Fed's monetary easing. Spot gold climbed 1.6% to $2979.76 per ounce, setting its 12th record high this year at the beginning of the session.

Stable rise in 2024 2After 7%, gold prices have risen nearly 14% so far this year. U.S. gold futures closed up 1.5% at $2,991.3.

Alex Ebkarian, COO of AllegianceGold, said: Gold is in a long-term bull market, and we predict that gold prices will fluctuate between $3,000 and $3,200 this year.

U.S. President Trump's capricious trade policy helps gold, an asset that is highly favored by investors in geopolitical and economic turmoil. U.S. avatradescn.commerce Secretary Lutnik said that in order to get Trump's economic policies in place, the recession is "worth it."

The Federal Reserve will hold a monetary policy meeting next Wednesday. It is expected that the bank will maintain the indicator overnight interest rate in the range of 4.25%-4.50%. According to the U.S. Department of Labor, producer prices remained unexpectedly flat in February, while the consumer price index rose by 0.2% last month after accelerating by 0.5% in January.

Spot silver rose 1.4% to $33.69 an ounce. Platinum rose 0.6% to $990.25; palladium rose 0.9% to $956.99. Oil market

Oil prices fell more than 1% on Thursday, with the market weighing macroeconomic concerns, including the risk that a tariff war between the United States and other countries could hit global demand, and the uncertainty arising from the U.S. ceasefire proposal from the U.S. Russia and Ukraine ceasefire.

Brent crude oil futures closed down 1.5% and settled at $69.88 per barrel. U.S. crude oil futures fell 1.7% to $66.55 a barrel.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that global oil supply may exceed demand by about 600,000 barrels per day this year, and global demand is currently expected to grow by only 1.03 million barrels per day, 70,000 barrels per day lower than last month's forecast. The report gives reasons for deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, including escalating trade tensions.

U.S. President Trump threatened on Thursday to impose 200% tariffs on wine, brandy and other alcohol imports from Europe, opening a new front for the global trade war. The trade war has disrupted financial markets and sparked concerns about a recession. Phil Flynn, senior analyst at PriceFuturesGroup, said trade tensions have shaken confidence among investors, consumers and businesses, and U.S. stock indexes have fallen, hitting sentiment in oil markets, despite government data showing that oil and refined oil inventories are tighter than expected. "This creates this tug-of-war," he said. "We are focusing on supply and demand (which still looks pretty bullish) and also on tariffs?"

Also on Thursday, Russian President Putin said Moscow agreed with the U.S. ceasefire proposal, but any ceasefire should lead to lasting peace and resolve the root causes of the conflict.

The market is weighing the possibility of a short-term ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, but UBS Group is divided intoAnalyst Giovanni Staunovo said he "still doubt" whether this will boost Russian oil supply.

Citibank analysts said that as Trump publicly promises to lower oil prices, they expect Brent crude to reach $60 a barrel by the second half of 2025.

Foreign Market

The dollar rose against most major currencies, including the Swiss franc and the euro, as investors consolidated their positions after selling the dollar for most of the week, but the dollar outlook remains weak due to concerns that the Trump administration's trade policy will slow economic growth.

U.S. President Trump threatened to impose 200% tariffs on wine, brandy and other liquor imported from Europe, opening up a new front for the global trade war that has disrupted financial markets and raised concerns about a recession.

Trump also threatened on Wednesday to retaliate against the EU's announcement of counter-tariff tariffs on US imports worth $28 billion from next month.

The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) in February was unexpectedly flat on a month-on-month basis, but the tariff outlook is unlikely to lower prices in the avatradescn.coming months, according to data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Thursday. "The dollar has weakened very much over the past few days and weeks, and it feels like we are entering a consolidation period," said Vassili Serebriakov, a foreign exchange strategist at UBS in New York, who raised his year-end forecast for the euro against the dollar to $1.120 from $0.990.

"We do see the possibility of a rebound in the U.S. dollar, which is still hit by tariff news, and the deadline for peer tariffs is approaching in early April."

The U.S. dollar strengthened 0.11% to 0.883, while the euro fell 0.28% to $1.0856 against the U.S. dollar, but is still close to the five-month high of $1.09470, which was hit earlier this week. Germany's fiscal reset plan provides additional support for the euro. Germany's outgoing parliament's lower house will hold a special meeting on Thursday to discuss the 500 billion euro infrastructure fund and the issue of the largest economy in Europe's revision of lending rules to strengthen its defense.

The yen rose 0.39% against the dollar to 147.84 yen, boosted by expectations that Japan will raise interest rates later this year. While the Bank of Japan is expected to keep its key interest rates unchanged at next week's policy meeting, a Reuters survey shows that more than two-thirds of economists expect the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75% in the third quarter, most likely in July.

The dollar index, which measures the dollar's exchange rate against a basket of currencies, including the Japanese yen and euros, rose 0.2% to 103.80. The index is expected to rise for two consecutive days.

The Canadian dollar fell 0.39% against the dollar to 1.4424 Canadian dollars, a day after the Bank of Canada cut its key policy interest rate by 25 basis points, tradeEasy disputes disturb traders.

International News

Putin made a statement on the ceasefire of Russia and Ukraine? Trump and Zelensky spoke out respectively

Russian President Putin expressed support for the proposal of a ceasefire with Ukraine on the 30th, but there are many issues that need to be discussed and resolved. Putin said at a joint press conference after the meeting with Belarusian President Lukashenko that Russia agreed to the proposal to end the hostilities with Ukraine, but the premise is that a ceasefire can bring about long-term peace and eliminate the root causes of the Ukrainian crisis. Putin also said that with Russia controlling the situation in Kursk State, the United States' proposal for a temporary ceasefire on the 30th is beneficial to Ukraine, and he is concerned about how to supervise the ceasefire and other issues. He may call US President Trump on the same phone. When Trump met with NATO Secretary-General Rutt at the White House, he described Putin as making a very promising statement, but it was not avatradescn.complete. He was willing to meet or talk to Putin, emphasizing that the ceasefire agreement must be reached as soon as possible. Ukrainian President Zelensky believes that Putin is ready to refuse the ceasefire proposal, but dare not tell Trump directly that Russia has set conditions for the ceasefire and is trying to delay the ceasefire or make it impossible to achieve.

Putin: Russia agrees to the ceasefire proposal, but many details are still to be discussed or avatradescn.communicated directly with Trump

On March 13 local time, Russian President Putin told the media after meeting with visiting Belarusian President Lukashenko that Russia agreed to the ceasefire proposal, but it is necessary to achieve long-term and stable peace through this ceasefire and eliminate the root causes of conflict. Putin said, "Even if Russia agrees to a ceasefire for 30 days, will the Ukrainian army currently in Kursk Prefecture in Russia be able to retreat unscathed, or will Ukraine order them to put down their weapons and surrender on the spot? There are also such problems on other fronts. In addition, how to supervise the ceasefire is also an important issue." Putin also asked back: "Who will issue a ceasefire order and who is responsible for issuing such orders?" Putin said that the ceasefire proposal is correct, but many issues need to be discussed. He said he might avatradescn.communicate with US President Trump on this.

The U.S. Treasury Department confirms that the license to conduct energy transactions with Russian financial institutions expires

On March 13 local time, the U.S. Treasury Department confirmed that the license to conduct energy transactions with Russian financial institutions has expired as planned on the 12th Eastern Time. It is reported that the Biden administration authorized the license on January 10 to clear the remaining transactions, and also prohibited energy financing transactions with Russian banks including the Russian Federal Savings Bank (Sberbank), the Russian Foreign Trade Bank (VTB). Since the Ukrainian crisis escalated, the United States and other Western countries have imposed multiple rounds of sanctions on Russia. In the financial field, many large Russian banks have been excluded from the Global Interbank Financial avatradescn.communications Association (SWIFT) payment system, and the Russian Central Bank has also been subject to restrictions. The U.S. government issued Executive Order No. 14024 in 2022, banning transactions with Russian banks. In December 2023, the U.S. government issued a temporary release of licenses to allow some Russian banks to enter the country before May 16, 2024.Transactions in the energy sector. This permit was subsequently extended until November 1, 2024.

The United States will impose more sanctions on Russian oil, gas and banking industries

People familiar with the matter said that the Trump administration is further restricting Russia's use of the US payment system, thereby imposing more restrictions on Russia's oil, gas and banking industries. On Wednesday, the U.S. Treasury Department voided the 60-day exemption implemented by the Biden administration in January, which allowed specific energy transactions involving sanctioned Russian banks to continue. If the exemption is invalid, these banks may no longer use the U.S. payment system.

Director of the Ukrainian Presidential Office: Ukraine firmly opposes the "freeze conflict"

On March 13, local time, Yermak, director of the Ukrainian Presidential Office, said that Ukraine firmly opposes the "freeze conflict" and this position has been supported by US partners. Yermak also said that Europe will be included in the peace process, which is just the beginning, and Ukraine still has a lot of work to be carried out urgently. He stressed that Ukraine was not isolated in this process, but received support and collaboration from many partners.

The U.S. Department of Government Efficiency recommends laying off nearly 20% of its employees on the IRS

The "Director of Government Efficiency" led by Musk proposes to significantly reduce the size of the IRS (IRS) and cut nearly 20% of its employees by May 15 (one month after the U.S. tax day). President Trump ordered federal agencies to submit "massive" layoffs by Thursday local time. Details of the IRS proposal have been released in an email from the Department of Government Efficiency and will be discussed at an agency leadership meeting Thursday morning, according to a person familiar with the matter. The latest round of layoffs will lay off nearly 6,800 employees, along with about 6,700 probation workers who have been fired and 4,700 employees who have accepted the Trump administration's voluntary buyout of their seniority program.

The European Spirits Industry Association called on Europe and the United States not to use the industry as a "negotiation chip"

The European Spirits Industry Association called on the 13th to stop using the industry as a "negotiation chip" in the tariff war. On the 12th, the EU announced countermeasures against the US 25% steel and aluminum tariffs, including imposing tariffs on US-made whiskey, and the relevant measures will take effect in April. US President Trump said on social media on the 13th that if the EU does not cancel tariffs on whiskey products that the United States will impose, the US will soon impose 200% tariffs on alcoholic products from EU countries. According to media reports, the European Spirits Industry Association said in a statement on the 13th that the industry is "deeply shocked" by the US tariff threat, "This cycle of 'tit for tooth' tariff retaliation must be stopped immediately! We urge both sides not to use the spirits industry as a bargaining chip for disputes that are not related to us."

WTO: Canada has received avatradescn.complaints from Canada regarding U.S. steel and aluminum tariff measures

WTO said on March 13 local time that the organization has received a request from Canada to negotiate with the United States on the imposition of import tariffs on certain steel and aluminum products from Canada. The request was distributed to WTO members on the 13th. The Trump administration in the United States has introduced tariff measures, imposing a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imported to the United States. The measure officially came into effect on March 12.

The risk of the U.S. government shutdown declines this weekend, and Schumer accepted the Republican draft temporary budget

U.S. Senate Democratic leader Schumer talked about the temporary spending bill at the Senate plenary meeting: "There is no choice at all. It would be worse to shut down the government than (the Democrats accepted the House of Representatives' vote to approve and hand over) the Republican draft temporary spending bill. "This speech means that Schumer gave up his stance to obstruct the Republican draft temporary budget.

U.S. Treasury Secretary: Tariff negotiations can be conducted for all other goods except metals and automobile tariffs

On the 13th local time, US Treasury Secretary Bescent said that everything except metals and possible automobile tariffs can be negotiated. If trading partners want to speed up negotiations, trade surpluses will suffer the biggest blow. When asked about US President Trump's threat of 200% tariffs on EU alcohol products, Bescent said, "not sure why one or two items from one or two trading groups would be a big problem." Regarding the turmoil in the US stock market for several days, Becent said that the United States is concerned with overall market performance and the long-term returns of Americans. He said “detox” does not necessarily lead to a recession. When asked about the weakening of the dollar, Becent said that many factors have been included and the adjustment is "natural". Becent also said that the U.S. government shutdown will have a devastating impact. But he said businesses are generally supportive of getting rid of government spending, and Trump’s tax bill is moving as planned, hoping to make progress in the avatradescn.coming weeks.

Domestic News

6G R&D Presses the "acceleration key" Many listed avatradescn.companies have made arrangements in advance

The 2025 Government Work Report includes 6G technology into the core framework of future industrial cultivation. The industry expects that by 2040, the number of 6G terminal connections will increase by more than 30 times avatradescn.compared with 2022, and the monthly average traffic will increase by more than 130 times, ultimately bringing a broad market development space with a number of terminal connections of hundreds of billions of dollars and a trillion-level GB monthly average traffic. With the continuous advancement of 6G technology, some listed avatradescn.companies have made it clear that they have or indirectly participated in 6G-related services. Among the 6G concept stocks, 15 achieved profitability and improved year-on-year in 2024. Among them, Yiyuan avatradescn.communications, Wote Co., Ltd., Benchuan Intelligent, Tianyin Mechanical and Electrical, and Cixing Co., Ltd. doubled their net profits year-on-year.

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