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Global Market Review

1. European and American market conditions

The three major stock index futures fell, with Dow futures mainly blue-chip stocks falling 0.72%; S&P 500 futures falling 0.50%; and Nasdaq 100 futures mainly technology stocks falling 0.01%. European stocks fell, with the German DAX index falling 2.94%; the French CAC40 index falling 2.98%; and the UK FTSE 100 index falling 2.80%.

2. Market news interpretation

The trade war hits air travel, Delta lowers its performance expectations

Depending on the uncertainty of global trade, Delta has withdrawn its full-year performance guidance, which is a clear sign that Trump's tariff policy has brought turmoil to the American business avatradescn.community. While Delta still expects to make a profit in 2025, it declined to reiterate its forecast released in January, when the avatradescn.company said adjusted annual earnings would exceed $7.35 per share. Delta reported better-than-expected first-quarter results on Wednesday and said it will update its performance outlook later this year as the situation becomes clear.

The EU transfers the third batch of frozen Russian assets to Ukraine

On April 9, local time, Ukrainian Prime Minister Smegal confirmed that the EU has transferred the third batch of frozen Russian assets to Ukraine, with an amount of 1 billion euros (about 1.1 billion US dollars). This funding isThe third transfer under the framework of the G7 Aid Ukraine initiative has previously handed over 5 billion euros. According to the G7 resolution, it is planned to provide Ukraine with a total of US$50 billion in aid by freezing Russian assets, of which Europe will bear US$20 billion.

Indonesia palm oil industry organizations urged the government to reduce palm oil export tax to 0%

On Wednesday, Indonesia's palm oil industry and farmers' groups urged the government to reduce export costs to offset the impact of the 32% "reciprocal" tariff imposed by the U.S. on Indonesia's exports. "By reducing export tariffs and special export taxes to 0%, the decline in farmers-level prices can be offset to help stabilize the price of palm fruits." Indonesia imposed an export tariff and special export tax of USD 196 per metric ton on crude palm oil exports.

Delta Air Lines withdraws its full-year guidance, and its economic growth prospects are unclear.

① On April 9, 2025, Delta Air Lines announced the withdrawal of previous expectations that 2025 will be the best financial performance in its 100-year history. ②Delta CEO Ed Bastian said broad economic uncertainty in global trade has led to stagnation in growth. The avatradescn.company has revoked its adjusted earnings guidance of $7.35 per share and said it will provide updated data by the end of the year after visibility increases. ③avatradescn.comDelta and other airlines previously expected that customer demand for leisure and business travel will be very strong this year. However, due to changes in the economic situation, Delta now plans to reduce capacity growth in the second half of the year and focus on managing costs. ④ Nevertheless, Delta's stock price rose 3.7% to $37.20 in pre-market trading.

Turkey's current account deficit in February is expected to reach US$4.3 billion

① According to Reuters on April 9, Turkey's current account deficit in February is expected to be US$4.3 billion, and the full-year deficit in 2025 is expected to expand to US$20 billion. The forecast is based on a Reuters survey of eight economists, with a forecast ranging from $3.9 billion to $4.65 billion. ② Türkiye's current account deficit was mainly driven by strong domestic demand, resulting in an increase in imports. To improve this situation, the Turkish government has taken measures to limit domestic demand and promote investment and exports. The central bank's tight monetary policy has also helped stabilize demand. ③ Türkiye's foreign trade deficit (the main part of the current account deficit) rose 14.8% to US$7.77 billion in February. The cumulative deficit from January to February rose 18.2%, to US$15.31 billion. The full-year deficit in 2024 was US$9.97 billion. ④ Despite uncertainty over global markets due to new U.S. trade protectionist measures, falling oil prices are expected to help narrow Türkiye's current account deficit. In addition, the government has increased profitsMeasures such as rates limit strong domestic demand related to gold trade to reduce imports. ⑤ February data does not include the impact of recent U.S. tariff hikes and the market volatility caused by the detention of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamolu in March. The Turkish Central Bank will release its current account data for February at 07:00 on April 14 (GMT).

The European Central Bank's expectation of interest rate cuts has heated up

① On April 9, as the US reciprocal tariff measures took full effect, the market's expectations for global economic growth have been significantly lowered. ② The market focus turns to the response measures of central banks in various countries. Based on interest rates repricing, the market generally believes that the central bank will be forced to speed up the pace of interest rate cuts to cope with the shock of economic growth. ③For the European Central Bank (ECB), market sentiment has changed from "when will interest rate cut" to "rate and amplitude of interest rate cuts". Since the March meeting, market expectations for the April meeting have shifted from a 50% chance to a 100% rate cut, with a rate cut of 25 basis points. Meeting expectations for June and July have also been significantly adjusted. ④ The remarks of ECB official Olli Rehn supported this dovish expectation, pointing out that the downside risks of economic growth have emerged since the last meeting, and the reasons for supporting interest rate cuts are more fully supported. Meanwhile, ECB sources said the drag on economic growth by tariffs may exceed 1 percentage point, twice the previous estimate of 0.5 percentage points. ⑤ Although the market is almost certain that the ECB will cut interest rates at its April meeting and that the statement may be dovish, the euro remains resilient as traders shun the dollar.

The Bank of India strengthens risk management of gold loans

① The Bank of India proposes a number of measures to strengthen risk management of gold loans. This includes setting appropriate single borrower limits and industry limits for gold loans to avoid excessive concentration risks. ②The Bank of India also proposed to include gold collateral loan specifications in credit and risk management policies to ensure that the end use of the loan avatradescn.complies with regulations, thereby enhancing the stability of the financial system.

Germany reached a coalition government agreement

①On April 9, 2025, German conservatives reached a coalition government agreement with the center-left Social Democrats (SPD) under Friedrich Mertz, aiming to revitalize the growth of Europe's largest economy, while global trade conflict threatens the recession. ②Murts won the February election but failed to win a majority, and the far-right German Choice Party (AfD) jumped to second place. The joint agreement ended weeks of difficult negotiations between the two sides. ③ As US President Trump imposes extensive import tariffs, the urgency of the German government has further increased. ④Murts criticized the United States as an unreliable ally and promised to increase defense spending to deal with Russia's threat, while supporting avatradescn.companies facing high costs and weak demand. ⑤Murts also plans to take stricter measures on immigration policies, in contrast to former Prime Minister Angel Merkel's loose policy during the 2015 European immigration crisis. ⑥ The joint agreement still needs to be approved by members of the Social Democratic Party. ifPassed, conservatives will retake the premiership after a three-year term as Social Democratic Prime Minister Scholz.

3. Trends of major currency pairs in the New York Stock Exchange before the market

Euro/USD: As of 20:18 Beijing time, the euro/USD rose, now at 1.1050, an increase of 0.86%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the euro (euro-dollar) fell during the session after approaching the key resistance level 1.1100. The pair are trying to gain positive momentum through this decline, which may help break through resistance. Meanwhile, it is trying to alleviate some of the overbought conditions shown by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) as the main uptrend remains under control in the short term, with prices trading along the uptrend line.

GBP/USD: As of 20:18 Beijing time, GBP/USD rose, now at 1.2778, an increase of 0.11%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (GBPUSD) price rose at the intraday level in recent trading, supported by the short-term major bullish trend line and accompanied by positive signals from the Relative Strength Index (RSI), causing it to recover and attack the current resistance level of 1.2864 after reaching oversold levels.

Spot gold: As of 20:18 Beijing time, spot gold rose, now at 3062.65, an increase of 2.71%. Before New York, gold prices rose strongly in recent intraday trading, supported by positive signals from the Relative Strength Indicator (RSI), reaching our first target to test the current resistance at $3,053. This happens when the main uptrend is dominant and trading occurs near the trend line.

Spot silver: As of 20:18 Beijing time, spot silver rose, now at 30.440, an increase of 2.18%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, silver rose in the intraday level in recent trading, and after reaching the highly oversold area, the relative intensity index (RSI) showed a positive signal. This makes the price try to correct some oversold situations and recover some of the previous losses.

Crude oil market: As of 20:18 Beijing time, U.S. oil fell, now at 56.220, a drop of 5.61%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, crude oil prices showed some stability in early trading and resumed their decline at the recent level, trying to recover some of the previous losses. This occurs when the relative strength indicator (RSI) sends a negative signal.Bear market trends dominate in the short term.

4. Institutional View

Citi: Lower Malaysia's economic growth expectations

① On April 9, 2025, Citi expects Malaysia's GDP growth in the first quarter of 2025 to 4.8% from 5.0% in the fourth quarter of 2024, and lowers its full-year growth forecast for 2025 from 5.0% to 4.3%. ②Citi analyst Wei ZhengKit pointed out that the cyclical slowdown in electronics and electrical exports and rising tariff risks are the main reasons. Although the low costs and advantages brought by the Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone will continue to support the long-term investment outlook, short-term uncertainty may put pressure on the economy. ③He also mentioned that policies to raise wages may boost consumption, but employment risks brought about by weak exports still exist. ④ As the downside risk increases, Citigroup expects the probability of the Malaysian Central Bank cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in May or the second half of 2025 is 30%, and this probability will rise to 40% by 2026. ⑤ Although fundamentals support the value of ringgit (Malaysian currency), tariff pressures may prompt policy makers to allow greater exchange rate flexibility to absorb external shocks.

The above content is all about "[Ihua Foreign Exchange]: Trade War Strikes Air Travel, Analysis of Short-Term Trends of Spot Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, and Foreign Exchange on April 9". It was carefully avatradescn.compiled and edited by the Avatrade Foreign Exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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