US Consumer Confidence Index "Three consecutive declines" US dollar index surges and falls

On March 17, early trading in the Asian market on Monday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 103.75. Last Friday, the US dollar index rose and fell, still hovering at a low of more than four months, and finally closed down 0.135% at 103.7. U.S. Treasury yields rebounded after the release of U.S. consumer inflation expectations data, with the benchmark 10https://avatradescn.com annual U.S. Treasury yields closed at 4.317%; and the two-year U.S. Treasury yields, which are more sensitive to monetary policy, closed at 4.03%. Driven by the risk aversion boom, spot gold hit a record high of $3,004.91 during the session, and then gave up all the intraday gains, finally closing down 0.11% to $2,984.42 per ounce. Spot silver failed to successfully recover the 34 mark and finally closed down 0.06% at $33.78 per ounce. As traders weighed the avatradescn.complex prospects of the Russian-Ukrainian ceasefire negotiations, international oil prices rebounded, reversing the intraweek decline, recording a single-week gain for the first time in the past two months. WTI crude oil closed up 0.54% to $66.9 per barrel; Brent crude oil once again stood above the 70 mark, closing up 0.6% to $70.23 per barrel.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovers around 103.75. The dollar index fell as traders responded to a weaker-than-expected Michigan consumer confidence report. The report shows that the consumer confidence index fell from 64.7 in February toMarch was 57.9, while analysts forecast it was 63.1. Technically, falling below the support level 103.20–103.40 will open up the way to test the next support level 102.00–102.20.

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovers around 1.0879. The strength of the euro is mainly due to the positive progress in German politics. Prime Minister-elect Friedrich Metz announced that he has won support from the Green Party to promote a €500 billion infrastructure fund program aimed at strengthening national defense and driving economic growth. The Green Party’s entry gave Metz’s conservative coalition and Social Democrats a two-thirds majority required to amend the constitution. Technically, the successful test of resistance level 1.0920–1.0935 will push the EUR/USD toward the next resistance level 1.1030–1.1050.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.2932. U.S. President Trump's tariff uncertainty, easing concerns about a potential recession and avoidance of the U.S. government shutdown have become key factors in boosting sentiment in the dollar. Due to differences in monetary policy expectations between the Bank of England (BoE) and the Federal Reserve, the pound has difficulty maintaining its advantage as the dollar strengthens again. Technically, if GBP/USD closes at 1.2900 below 50MA, it will move towards the support level of 1.2810–1.2830.

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

On the Asian session on Monday, gold trading around 2987.90. Gold hit an all-time high of $3,005.04 last week as trade tensions, inflation data and risk aversion sentiment drives safe-haven buying. The sharp sell-off in stocks earlier this week drove investors toward cash and gold, strengthening its role in hedging economic uncertainty. However, as stocks rebounded on Friday, profit-taking took back the gains, causing gold to slightly fall from its peak.

Technical: Trading that breaks through $3005.04 will reaffirm the upward trend, while breaking through $2832.72 will change the secondary trend and change the momentum. Given the short-term range of $2536.85 to $3005.04, its fulcrum of $2770.94 is the first support level. If this level fails, things can get interesting, as the next major support level is the 52-week moving average of $2554.88.

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

On the Asian session on Monday, crude oil trading was around 67.58. Crude oil prices remained range-shaking last week as traders balanced geopolitical risks and increased supply. While strong fuel demand provided support, bearish fundamentals, including increased U.S. production, OPEC+ supply flexibility and economic uncertainty, curbed the gains. Due to conflicting forces, the market is difficult to find direction. Geopolitical development, OPEC+ policy decisions and demand signals will be key to shaping the next steps of oil.

Technical: Support levels are a series of bottoms of $64.75, $61.58 and $59.52. Price movements over the past two weeks suggest that traders may have found a value zone, causing sales pressure to rise. Still, a pair of fulcrums for $69.53 and $70.78, and of course, the 52-week moving average, may limit gains.

Forex market trading reminder on March 17, 2025

①09:30 Monthly report on residential price in 70 large and medium-sized cities in China

②10:00 China's total retail sales of consumer goods from January to February

③10:00 China's industrial added value above scale from January to February

④15:00 State Information Office held a press conference on the situation of boosting consumption

⑤20:30 US February retail sales month Rate

⑥20:30 US New York Fed Manufacturing Index in March

⑦22:00 US NAHB Real Estate Market Index in March

⑧22:00 US January avatradescn.commercial inventory monthly rate

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