Trump suddenly accused Powell of severe accusations, Federal Reserve officials suddenly blew up the "interest rate cut"

The US dollar index fell on Thursday, and trade uncertainty re-shrouded the market, erasing the optimism of the previous day.

China said that no economic and trade negotiations have been held recently and urged the US side to revoke all unilateral tariff measures if it is really sincere in solving the problem, which brings investors' clarity about the situation back to the level at the beginning of this week.

According to CCTV, on Thursday morning, senior U.S. officials revealed that the Trump administration is considering a variety of tariff plans. The first option is that the tariff rate imposed on Chinese goods may be reduced to about 50%-65%. The second option is called the "grading plan". The United States will divide goods imported from China into so-called "no threat to US national security" and so-called "strategic significance to US national interests."

CCTV reported that in the "grading plan", the US will impose a 35% tariff on the former category of goods, and the tariff rate on the second category of goods is at least 100%. White House press secretary Levitt said Trump's position on tariffs on China "has not softened."

Matt Weller, head of market research at StoneX, pointed out: "The perception of trade between the two sides is as far away as it is across the Pacific. I think that as long as this gap exists, the rebound of the US dollar will not last long."

Affected by Trump's sometimes tough and sometimes concessional tariff policies, the US dollar index has fallen 4.8% so far in April. If this trend continues, it will record the largest single-month decline since November 2022.

TradeNation strategist David Morrison pointed out: "The market was originally looking forward to the beauty."Only by expressing goodwill in trade disputes with countries around the world. ”

In the past few days, Trump has verbally criticized Fed Chairman Powell for his unwillingness to cut interest rates early without the economic data yet, which has shaken investor confidence and started to withdraw the dollar.

Cleveland Fed Chairman Hamak made a clear statement in an interview on Thursday that the Fed had basically ruled out the possibility of interest rate cuts in May. But she also released key information saying that if there is clear evidence of the economic direction, there is room for policy action in June.

Harmak said this when asked whether a rate cut is possible in June: "If we get clear and convincing data before June, then I think the avatradescn.committee will take action, provided we are clear about the correct policy direction at the time. "As soon as Hamak's remarks came out, the market responded quickly, and interest rate swaps showed that the probability of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in June climbed to about 65%.

Asian Market

Japan Statistics Bureau on Friday showed that Tokyo's overall consumer price index (CPI) increased by 3.5% year-on-year in April, avatradescn.compared with 2.9% last month. Meanwhile, Tokyo's CPI except fresh food and energy was 2.0% in April, avatradescn.compared with 1.1% in March.

In addition, Tokyo's CPI except fresh food rose by 3.4% year-on-year in April, higher than expected 3.2% and higher than last month's 2.4%.

The Chinese Ministry of Finance said on Friday that the current world economic growth momentum is insufficient, and tariffs and trade wars have further affected economic and financial stability. He called on all parties to further improve the international economic and financial system by strengthening multilateral cooperation.

European market

Germany European Central Bank Administrative avatradescn.committee member Joachim Nagel admitted yesterday that Germany faces significant downward risks due to US tariffs.

He warned: "In terms of economic growth, this certainly depends on the level of their respective tariffs, and the impact on Europe will be huge for Germany.

But in terms of inflation, “we are relatively sure that the impact on U.S. inflation will be greater than that of the euro zone,” Nagle added.

In addition, Philip Lane, chief economist at the ECB, told Bloomberg News that while the tariff shock could drag down the euro zone's growth, the region is not automatically on the road to recession.

Ryan highlighted the EU's diversified trade relations outside the United States, which could serve as a buffer against a more severe recession.

The German Ifo business prosperity index rose slightly in April, rising from 86.7 to 86.9, surpassing the market expectations of 85.2. The current assessment index climbed from 85.7 to 86.4. Although expected to be slightly lower than 87.7 to 87.4 in March, it is still higher than expected 85.0.

However, a closer look at the industry segment reveals that differentiation and vulnerability are increasing. Manufacturing confidence deteriorates further, from -16.6 to -18.1, while trade confidence is affectedto a significant blow, down from -23.8 to -27.0. On the other hand, the slight growth in the services sector (from -1.1 to -0.8) and the construction sector (from -24.3 to -21.9) provided some relief, although both remained in negative areas.

IfoInstitute warned that “the uncertainty among avatradescn.companies has increased”, adding that “the German economy is preparing for turmoil.”

U.S. market

As of the week ended April 19, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the United States increased by 6k to 222k, in line with expectations. The four-week moving average of initial jobless claims fell -1k to 220k.

As of the week ended April 12, the number of people who renewed unemployment benefits fell by -37k to 1841k. The four-week moving average of the number of people who continue to apply for unemployment benefits fell -1.5k to 1864k.

U.S. durable goods orders soared 9.2% month-on-month to USD315.7B in March, far exceeding the expected 1.5% month-on-month growth. The sharp rise was almost entirely driven by a surge in transportation equipment, which rose 27% month-on-month to $124.6B, marking the third straight month of gains.

Orders excluding defense also achieved a strong 10.4% increase to $30�����������㡿$0.0B, highlighting the significant growth in civil aircraft and related avatradescn.components.

However, the potential momentum of business investment seems far less strong. Core orders excluding shipping were flat at $191.1B, below the 0.2% monthly growth forecast.

Cleveland Fed Chairman Beth Hammack told CNBC that it is "too early" to consider relaxing interest rates at the FOMC meeting from May 6 to 7. Hamak stressed the need for patience, saying she would rather “take it slow” and monitor how the economy develops rather than act too early.

While Hammack stressed that every meeting should be open, she suggested a clearer direction might appear before June.

"If we have clear and avatradescn.compelling data by June, then I think you'll see the avatradescn.committee take action," she said, noting that any decision will depend on whether the incoming information provides a strong signal for the appropriate policy path.

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