Gold prices hover around historical highs, tariff policies are repeated over and over again Trump signs executive order to investigate key mineral safety risks

Basic news

On Wednesday (April 16, Beijing time), spot gold trading was around 3239.70, gold prices rose on Tuesday. Driven by safe-haven demand, US President Trump's uncertain tariff plan made investors nervous, and the overall weakening of the US dollar also provided support; US crude oil trading was around 60.84 US dollars per barrel, investors digest the latest news about US President Trump's repeated tariff policies and try to clarify to what extent the trade war will reduce global economic growth and oil demand.

Focus on this day

State Information Office held a press conference on the operation of the national economy, released China's first quarter GDP and industrial data, the Bank of Canada released its interest rate resolution and monetary policy report, and the WTO released its 2025 global trade outlook report.

Stock Market

U.S. stocks closed slightly lower on Tuesday, affected by high tariff uncertainty, and consumer and health care stocks fell, but banks' optimistic performance provided some support. Bank of America and Citigroup rose after reporting results.

But, however, bank executives warn that U.S. consumer spending will face huge risks if the turmoil caused by President Trump's trade policy continues.

The Federal Register issued a notice on Monday that the Trump administration will launch an investigation into drug and semiconductor imports as part of imposing tariffs on both industries. Trump announced a full increase in tariffs on April 2, triggering market turmoil and exacerbating concerns about a global trade war and a possible recession. Trading was light this week, but investors had no time to take care of the others.

Bair"The profitability of the enterprise is pretty good, but the market is plagued by tariffs and trade uncertainty, which are actually the only important factors that are currently influencing. Without these (drivers), the market will appear to be more lost and lack direction, which is a reflection of today's market trend."

JP Johnson & Johnson's share price closed down 0.5%, and although the avatradescn.company's first-quarter revenue and profit exceeded Wall Street expectations, medical equipment sales were lower than expected.

Barclays downgraded the U.S. auto and mobility industry on Tuesday, saying Trump's tariff measures could put pressure on automakers' profits. Ford closed down 2.7%, General Motors fell 1.3%, and the S&P Consumer Discretionary Index fell 0.8%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.38% to 40368.96 points; the S&P 500 fell 0.17% to 5396.63 points, and the Nasdaq fell 0.05% to 16823.17 points.

Bank of America closed up 3.6% after it reported first-quarter profits exceeded expectations due to increased interest income.

S&P 500 avatradescn.companies have just begun to announce quarterly results to March 31, but changes in U.S. trade policy has made the outlook unclear and executives may be reluctant to give financial forecasts.

Mayfield said that when it avatradescn.comes to first-quarter results, those results basically occur in a world that no longer exists. The next focus of the market will be on the performance guidance provided by the avatradescn.company, but I expect many avatradescn.companies to either not publish or withdraw their previous financial forecasts.

Strategists are also paying close attention to the technical charts, with the S&P 500 50-day moving average downward across the 200-day moving average on Monday, forming a "death cross" pattern, which usually means that a short-term pullback may turn into a long-term downward trend.

The S&P 500 is still 12.2% lower than its all-time high closing level hit on February 19, and has fallen about 8% so far this year. Gold prices rose on Tuesday, driven by safe-haven demand, U.S. President Trump's uncertain tariff plan has made investors nervous, and the overall weakening of the dollar also provides support.

Spot gold was $3230.18 per ounce, up 0.6%, setting a record high of $3245.42 on Monday. US gold futures rose 0.4%, with a settlement price of $3,240.40. "Traders are waiting for the next major fundamental development that drives the gold market, but the technology chart is still bullish. There is still a demand for hedging."

The U.S. government is advancing an investigation into drug and semiconductor imports, aiming to impose tariffs," said Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at KitcoMetals.

Trump said on Sunday that he will announce his entry in the avatradescn.coming weekTariff rate for OP semiconductors. As a safe-haven asset in a period of political and financial uncertainty, gold has risen more than 23% so far in 2025 and has set new highs.

Investors are currently awaiting a speech scheduled for Fed Chairman Powell on Wednesday to get more clues about the interest rate path.

Spot silver fell 0.1% to $32.32 per ounce; platinum rose 0.9% to $959.75; palladium rose 1.7% to $972.57. Oil market

Oil prices changed little on Tuesday, as investors digested the latest news about US President Trump's repeated tariff policies and tried to clarify to what extent the trade war would reduce global economic growth and oil demand.

Brent crude oil futures fell 0.3%, with a settlement price of $64.67 per barrel; U.S. crude oil futures fell 0.3%, with a settlement price of $61.33.

The swing of U.S. trade policy has brought uncertainty to the global oil market, prompting the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to revise its demand forecast on Monday.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted Tuesday that global oil demand is expected to grow at its slowest rate in five years due to concerns that Trump's trade tariffs will affect economic growth. Tariff uncertainty has led several banks including UBS, BNP Paribas and HSBC to lower their forecasts on crude oil prices.

UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said: If the trade war escalates further, our downside risk scenario, namely, the deepening of the U.S. recession and a hard landing in China's economy -- could bring Brent crude prices to $40-60 (a barrel) in the next few months.

Trump said on Monday that he is considering adjusting the 25% tariff on foreign cars imported from places like Mexico, which has given some support for oil prices. Despite Trump's policy of supporting oil drilling. But the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said Tuesday that U.S. oil production will peak at 14 million bpd in 2027 and will maintain that level by 2030 before falling rapidly.

Analysts predict that U.S. crude oil inventories are expected to drop by about 1 million barrels in the week ending April 11. In avatradescn.comparison, inventory increased by 2.7 million barrels in the same period last year, avatradescn.compared with an average increase of 4.2 million barrels in the same period in the past five years (2020-2024).

Foreign market

The dollar rose against the euro and yen on Tuesday, showing temporary signs of a rebound after the dollar index plummeted by more than 3% last week.

However, investors remain cautious due to concerns about the impact of U.S. President Trump's trade tariffs on the U.S. economy. The change in tariffs has reduced confidence in U.S. policymakers, causing investors to seek calm waters outside the United States, which spurred a sharp rise in U.S. Treasury yields last week and weakened the attractiveness of the dollar.

UBS Forex and"The dollar is driven mainly by asset flows rather than traditional short-term drivers, such as interest rate spreads," said macro strategist Vassili Serebriakov. "The dollar seems to be driven by reflection on the U.S. exceptionalism." Serebriakov said factors that drive away from the U.S. include: slowdown in the U.S. economy, uncertainty in tariffs, broader U.S. policy uncertainty, improvements in confidence in Europe, etc.

Tues on Tuesday showed that U.S. import prices fell unexpectedly in March due to rising costs of energy products, the latest sign of inflation fading before Trump's full tariffs came into effect. Trading so far this week has been relatively calm, but investors remain cautious while waiting for further clear tariffs.

Prashant Newnaha, senior interest rate strategist at TD Securities in Asia Pacific, said last week's theme was deleveraging, clearing positions and asset reconfiguration, and withdrawing U.S. assets. This week is a week due to a decrease in holiday trading days, and the market tone is relatively calm.

Most U.S. markets will be closed on Friday due to the Good Friday holiday, but the foreign exchange market remains open. The euro fell 0.70% against the dollar on the day to $1.127, hitting a three-year high of $1.1473 last week.

Euro/USD is one of the most overvalued currency pairs, suggesting that the euro is acting as the "top channel for losing confidence in the dollar," said Francesco Pesole and Benjamin Schroeder in a report.

The transfer from U.S. assets to European assets, coupled with a weakening of the dollar's hedge appeal, may continue to justify the euro's overvaluation, they added.

Tues on Tuesday showed that German investor confidence showed its strongest decline since the Ukrainian problem in April due to uncertainty caused by U.S. tariffs. The ECB is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points when it ends its two-day meeting on Thursday.

The dollar rose 0.12% against the yen to 143.16 yen, not much the same as the six-month low of 142.05 hit last Friday.

Japanese Economic Regeneration Minister Ryomasa Akazawa said on Tuesday that Japan will seek to avatradescn.completely cancel additional tariffs imposed by Trump, and he will launch a three-day visit to Washington.

The US dollar rose 0.91% against the Swiss franc to 0.822 Swiss francs. The dollar fell to a 10-year low against the Swiss franc last week. The pound rose 0.15% to $1.3209, after hitting $1.3252, the highest since October 3.

The Australian dollar rose 0.32% against the US dollar to US$0.6345; the New York dollar rose 0.39% against the US dollar to US$0.5899, and earlier hit US$0.5943, the highest since November 13.

International News

Trump signs executive order to investigate the United StatesSecurity risks of relying on imports of key minerals

On the 15th local time, the White House said that US President Trump signed an executive order to investigate the national security risks of the US relying on imports to process key minerals and its derivatives.

Spanish Economy Secretary: The U.S. Treasury Secretary intends to reach a tariff agreement with the EU

Spanish Economy Secretary Carlos Cuerpo said that U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Besent signaled that he hopes the United States and the EU will reach an agreement on tariff issues. "Treasury Secretary Becent conveyed a clear message: the United States wants to reach an agreement with its major trading partners, which confirms the door to dialogue that opened last week with a 90-day (tariff) suspension," Cuerpo said in Washington on Tuesday, describing the talks between the two sides as “helpful and constructive”.

EIA expects U.S. crude oil production to peak at 14 million barrels per day in 2027

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Tuesday that U.S. oil production will peak at 14 million barrels per day in 2027 and maintain this level by 2030 before falling rapidly. The U.S. Department of Energy's statistics department said in its Annual Energy Outlook that by 2050, the world's largest oil producer will see oil production drop from about 13.7 million barrels per day this year to about 11.3 million barrels per day. At the same time, forecasts show that the recovery of U.S. oil demand after the COVID-19 pandemic will end next year. In 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic, the average U.S. oil consumption was 20.54 million barrels per day. The record is 20.8 million barrels per day in 2005.

The U.S. Republicans are reportedly considering setting a 40% tax rate for millionaires to offset the cost of tax cuts

Republicans in the White House, Senate and House are drafting an analysis to study how to best set new tax ratings for the wealthiest people in the United States. This move shows that the Republicans under U.S. President Donald Trump are seriously considering the idea of ​​raising taxes to the rich. According to people familiar with the matter, the House of Representatives' proposal plans to set the taxpayer tax rate of $1 million and above at 40%. Sources pointed out that economic policy advisers in the Senate and Trump administration are also studying the idea. A White House official said Trump is open to setting up a new top tax rating. But the official stressed that the threshold for higher tax rates should be much higher than $1 million.

Nigeria plans to build a strategic oil reserve this year to cope with international market turmoil

Nigeria's petroleum products regulator said at a press conference that Nigeria plans to establish a national strategic oil product reserve this year to protect its economy from the impact of international market turmoil. Farouk, Director of the Nigerian Petroleum Middle and Lower River Regulatory Bureau? Ahmed said the country's oilThis reserve under the law will ease the supply shock and enhance the country's energy security. Although Nigeria has abundant oil resources, it often faces fuel shortages and long queues to refuel. The country aims to leverage its expanding domestic refining capacity, especially the Dangot refinery with a capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, to enhance its ability to resist global supply fluctuations. Ahmed said that while Nigeria currently maintains oil product reserves that can meet about 30 days of supply, the new national strategic reserves built on the basis of the US strategic oil reserves will be much larger.

The US economy may lose billions of dollars this year as foreign tourists decreases and boycotts US products, the US economy is expected to lose billions of dollars in revenue by 2025. In March, the number of non-U.S. citizens arriving in the United States by plane fell nearly 10% year-on-year, with international tourists spending in the United States reaching a record $254 billion last year.外国游客数量的下降归因于边境敌对情绪加剧、地缘政治摩擦加剧以及全球经济不确定性，一些国家和机构建议不要前往美国。

The White House Budget Office proposes to cancel U.S. funding for UN peacekeeping missions

On April 15 local time, internal planning documents show that the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) proposes to cancel U.S. funding for UN peacekeeping missions. The move is a response from the White House Budget Office to the U.S. State Department budget cuts. The new budget must be approved by Congress. During Trump's first term, he proposed to cut about one-third of his diplomatic and aid budget, but Congress refused.

Domestic News

The endogenous driving force of consumption continues to recover, and institutions are optimistic about the trend of consumer stocks

Driven by the continuous release of policy dividends and the "high-cut low" rotation effect of funds, the A-share and Hong Kong stock consumption sectors have risen across the board recently, with northbound funds ambushing ahead of schedule, and funds continue to increase their holdings in related ETFs. Judging from the first quarter data, the endogenous driving force of my country's consumption continued to recover, and the offline consumption hot index in the first quarter increased by 14.2% year-on-year, an increase of 9.1 percentage points from the previous quarter. Institutional personnel believe that with the further increase in the policy of stabilizing growth and the rebound in effective demand, the consumer sector is ushering in the dual allocation opportunity of "risk aversion defense + trend reversal".

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