Trump criticized Powell for slow rate cuts, analysis of short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on April 17

Global Market Review

1. European and American market conditions

The three major stock index futures rose and fell in unison. Dow futures, mainly blue-chip stocks, fell 0.84%; S&P 500 futures rose 0.60%; and Nasdaq 100 futures, mainly technology stocks, rose 0.95%. European stock markets fell, with the German DAX index falling 0.61%; the French CAC40 index falling 0.85%; and the UK FTSE 100 index falling 0.83%.

2. Market news interpretation

Trump criticized Powell for his slow cut of interest rates and said that the sooner he stepped down, the better.

U.S. President Trump said that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell should have stepped down long ago, saying that the Fed should have cut interest rates this year, and he should take action now no matter what. Trump posted on TruthSocial on Thursday morning, saying, "The sooner Powell stepped down, the better!" Trump also mocked the Federal Reserve Chairman he nominated for in his first term and gave him the nickname "TooLate". It is unclear whether Trump's post refers to the imminent expiration of Powell's term or whether he will seek to remove Powell from his post. The White House did not immediately respond to a request for avatradescn.comment. Powell's term of office as chairman will last until May 2026, while his term of office as a director will last until February 2028.

The fair value of the 10-year German government bond yield is expected to be around 2.75%, higher than the current level

BlueBay Chief Investment Officer Mark Dowding said in a report,The fair value of the 0-year German Treasury yield is around 2.75%, higher than the current level. Treasury bonds with yields below 2.5% are expensive. Considering the future fiscal easing policy, the money market has digested expectations of the ECB's multiple interest rate cuts. According to LSEG data, the money market expects the ECB terminal deposit interest rate to be around 1.70%, which means that the ECB will cut interest rates more than three times on the current 2.5%.

The lira rose after the Turkish central bank raised interest rates

The Turkish lira rose after the Turkish central bank raised its policy interest rate to 46.0% from the previous 42.5%. It also raised its overnight lending rate from 46.0% to 49%, and its overnight lending rate from 41.0% to 44.5%. The Turkish central bank said that due to recent financial market developments, monthly inflation for core avatradescn.commodities is expected to rise slightly in April. Türkiye's decision to raise interest rates after Turkey's rival Ekrim Imamogru was arrested in March, resulting in a sharp sell-off of Turkish assets, including the Lira.

The US economy faces slowdown in growth and inflationary pressure

1. According to a Reuters survey of economists, the growth expectations of the US economy in 2025 and 2026 are significantly lowered, with the expected economic growth rate in 2025 to be only 1.4%, a significant decrease from the 2.2% forecast last month and is expected to grow by 1.5% in 2026, lower than the 2.0% forecast in March.

2. Inflation expectations have risen sharply. Surveys from April 14 to 17 showed that inflation forecasts have risen sharply from the previous month. Indicators such as core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) are expected to be higher than the Fed's 2% target for a long time, and it is difficult to fall back in the next few years.

3. Trump's tariff remarks have triggered market concerns about the trade environment, resulting in a frustration of corporate investment and consumer spending confidence. Economists generally believe that tariff policies have negative impacts on business sentiment and increase the risk of recession.

4. The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma. On the one hand, rising inflation expectations may limit its interest rate cuts, and on the other hand, slowing economic growth requires the support of monetary policy. Most economists expect the federal funds rate to remain at a high level until at least July 2025.

5. Although the unemployment rate forecasts are not much change, the avatradescn.combination of slowing economic growth and rising inflation puts huge pressure on consumer spending, and consumers are concerned about the future economic outlook, which further suppresses the driving force for consumption growth.

Russia's diesel production is expected to increase in May

1. Although refineries usually undergo seasonal maintenance in May, Russia's diesel production capacity is expected to increase as more diesel production units will be back online after repairs.

2. This year, multiple UAV attacks on Russian refineries by Ukraine have resulted in an increase in unplanned maintenance work for diesel units, changing conventional refinery maintenance plans.

3. According to industry data, it was idle in MayThe diesel production capacity is expected to drop 8.1% from April levels to 1.6 million tons (approximately 52,700 tons/day, about 392,088 barrels/day).

4. This means that idle diesel production capacity in May accounts for 15.8% of the total production capacity, down from 17.3% in April.

5. Russian authorities said there was enough fuel to meet domestic demand and provided gasoline and diesel during planned refinery maintenance.

6. According to Reuters' calculations based on industry data, Russia's crude oil processing capacity in May will drop from 2.84 million tons in April to 2.4 million tons (about 565,162 barrels per day).

The Bank of England may ignore the rise in short-term inflation and accelerate the pace of interest rate cuts

1. The Bank of England may ignore the rise in short-term inflation due to the weak British labor market and economic uncertainty caused by US tariffs, and accelerate the pace of interest rate cuts.

2. JamieSearle of Citibank pointed out in the report that UK Treasury yields are expected to decline in the medium term.

3.Searle expects the UK 10-year Treasury yield to fall to 4% in the fourth quarter of 2025.

4. According to Tradeweb data, the current yield on the UK 10-year Treasury bonds remains flat at 4.615%.

The fair value of the German 10-year treasury bond yield is higher than the current level

1. Mark Dowding, chief investment officer of BlueBay Asset Management, said that the fair value of the German 10-year treasury bond yield is about 2.75%, higher than the current level.

2.Dowding believes that German government bonds with yields below 2.5% are overvalued.

3.BlueBay believes that the money market has too much expectations for the European Central Bank interest rate cut and has not fully considered the impact of fiscal easing policies.

4. According to Tradeweb data, the 10-year German Treasury bond yield rose by 3 basis points to 2.536%.

5.LSEG data shows that the money market expects the final deposit rate of the ECB to be about 1.70%, which means that from the current 2.5% level, the market expects the ECB to cut interest rates more than three times.

6. The European Central Bank will announce the interest rate decision at 12:15 GMT, and the market generally expects it to cut interest rates.

Japan export growth slowed down, and trade data reflected the impact of US tariffs

1. Japan's exports in March increased by 3.9% year-on-year, lower than the expected 4.5% and far lower than the 11.4% growth rate in February, showing a slowdown in growth.

2. This is the sixth consecutive month of growth in Japan's exports, but the growth rate has slowed significantly, partly due to the impact of US tariff policies.

March-March imports rose 2.0% year-on-year, reversing a 0.7% decline in February, but lower than economists' expectations of 3.1%.

4Japan's trade surplus in March was 544.05 billion yen, an increase from 349.85 billion yen in the same period last year.

5. Exports to the United States increased by 3.1%, while imports from the United States fell by 4.6%; exports to China fell by 4.8%, and imports from China surged by 15.9%.

6. Overall exports to Asia increased by 5.5%, and imports increased by 11.4%.

7.ING economist MinJooKang pointed out that as Japan's export data were disappointing and tariff resistance increased, the market focus turned to trade negotiations with the United States.

8.Kang also mentioned that in order to avoid tariff conflicts with the United States, exports within Asia are re-aligning their paths, while expressing concerns about the downward cycle of the semiconductor industry.

9.Capital Economics economist Marcel Thieliant expects Japanese exports to grow again in the avatradescn.coming months as U.S. importers rush to buy orders before the "peer-to-peer tariff" moratorium (expired in July).

10.Thieliant believes that the most likely situation is that "peer-to-peer tariffs" will be suspended indefinitely, which means exports will soon return to normal levels.

3. Trends of major currency pairs in the New York Stock Exchange before the market

Euro/USD: As of 20:16 Beijing time, the euro/USD fell and is now at 1.1362, a drop of 0.32%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the euro against the dollar traded in a narrow sideways at the intraday level, trying to gain positive momentum that could help its rise, and trying to get rid of some obvious overbought status on (RSI), negative signals began to appear, with a major bullish trend dominating on a short-term basis and trading along the trend line.

GBP/USD: As of 20:16 Beijing time, GBP/USD fell and is now at 1.3231, a drop of 0.08%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the price of GBPUSD fell in recent intraday trading after the pair consumed a lot of bullish momentum recently. Affected by a breakthrough in a short-term uptrend line, the price fell below EMA50. Besides (RSI) negative signals.

Spot gold: As of 20:16 Beijing time, spot gold fell, now at 3337.40, a drop of 0.21%. Before New York, gold prices fell at intraday levels in recent trading, trying to collect its previous gains to unload one of its (RSI)These obviously overbought conditions. Dominantly under the short-term major bullish trend, the negative signal appears to be regaining its bullish power, which may help it rise again.

Spot silver: As of 20:16 Beijing time, spot silver fell, now at 32.408, a drop of 1.01%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, silver prices fell in recent intraday trading due to the formation of a short-term rising wedge pattern. This decline was accompanied by negative signals from the Relative Strength Index (RSI), although it reached the oversold zone avatradescn.compared to the price, starting a short-term correction to the recent bull market.

Crude oil market: As of 20:16 Beijing time, U.S. oil rose, now at 62.730, an increase of 1.44%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, crude oil prices fell at the intraday level, which was positively affected by the head and shoulders top pattern and traded above the EMA50. This decline allowed the price to collect the gains from its previous rise in an attempt to unload some overbought conditions on (RSI), especially after negative overlap signals appearing, which allowed the price to collect positive forces that might help its recovery and rise.

4. Institutional View

Citi: Reduce UK's GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 0.7%

Due to the potential impact of tariffs, Citi lowered UK's GDP growth forecast for 2026 from 1.0% to 0.7%. Citi said in a report that tariffs are unlikely to affect GDP growth in 2025. The tariff shock is expected to curb global consumer demand, and if goods that no longer enter the U.S. are transferred to other markets, the impact "could be exacerbated by positive supply shocks."

Fitch: Global central banks may step up easing, but the Fed may have to wait until the fourth quarter

Fitch said the unexpected weakening of the US dollar has created more room for global central banks to relax policies. Fitch currently expects further rate cuts in the European Central Bank and emerging markets. As world economic growth slows down, falling avatradescn.commodity prices, including oil, will also stimulate countries outside the United States to accelerate the pace of monetary easing. This will be in contrast to the Fed, which still expects the Fed to wait until the fourth quarter to cut interest rates. The report said that despite the deteriorating outlook for U.S. economic growth, the inflation situation has limited the Federal Reserve's ability to relax policies. Fitch expects tariff escalations will drive U.S. inflation to 4.3% by year-end, avatradescn.compared with a previous forecast of 3.6%.

The above content is about "[Aihua Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: Trump criticized Powell for slow rate cuts, spot gold on April 17, silver, crude oil, foreign exchange short-term trend analysis", all contents are carefully avatradescn.compiled and edited by Aihua Avatrade foreign exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thank you for your support!

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