Trump staged a "face-changing show", the US index approached 100 mark

On April 24, early trading in the Asian market on Thursday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 99.75. On Wednesday, as Trump and Becente released optimistic signals in trade negotiations, the U.S. dollar index continued to rebound and finally closed up 0.932% to 99.9. U.S. Treasury yields rose and fell mixed, with the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields closed at 4.393%; and the two-year U.S. Treasury yields, which are more sensitive to monetary policy, closed at 3.885%. The decline in risk aversion sentiment and the rise in the US dollar caused spot gold to plummet by more than $100, once hitting the $3260 mark, and finally closed down 2.77% to $3288.44 per ounce. As demand outlook boosted, spot silver trends and gold differentiated, and eventually closed up 3.29% at $33.55 per ounce. International crude oil plunged after sources said OPEC+ would consider accelerating its oil production growth in June, but easing of trade tensions has limited its decline. WTI crude oil hit a low of $61.4 per barrel and finally closed down 2.02% at $62.13 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed down 1.81% at $65.24 per barrel.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovers around 99.75. Market volatility stems from remarks by U.S. President Trump, who said he would not fire Fed Chairman Powell (although he expressed dissatisfaction with high interest rate policies). Trump's remarks have caused the market to have certain doubts about US policies, which in turn affects the trend of the US dollar. On the daily chart, https://avatradescn.comThe trend of the US dollar index shows a certain weakness, with prices not exceeding the 101.00 level above recently and continue to fluctuate in a lower range. Technically, the US dollar index closed above 50MA at 99.39 and tried to close above 99.70. If this attempt is successful, the U.S. dollar index will move towards the next resistance level 100.20–100.40.

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovers around 1.1343. Although the euro is facing pullback pressure against the US dollar in the short term, based on current fundamentals and technical analysis, the medium- and long-term bullish trend is still intact. The current market sentiment is in a clear contradictory state. On the one hand, the euro's decline from a high level in the short term has triggered some profit settlements; on the other hand, concerns about uncertainty in U.S. trade policy and the independence of the Federal Reserve continue to exist. The market generally believes that the Trump administration's stance is volatile and unpredictable, which increases the volatility of the foreign exchange market. Technically, if the EUR/USD remains below the 1.1350 level, it will move towards the nearest support level 1.1275–1.1290.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3279. The pound's rally against the dollar has been paused as traders assess mixed UK economic data and changing Fed policy expectations. While a pullback may occur in the near future, if the key support levels remain, a rise may occur again from a broader trend. Technical indicators show that the market will further consolidate before the next decisive action. Technically, if GBP/USD successfully closes below 50MA, it will move to the next support level, which is in the range of 1.3180–1.3200.

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

On Thursday, gold trading around 3336.79. Earlier, US President Trump said he did not intend to fire the Federal Reserve Chairman and hinted that it had made progress on tariff issues, investors' appetite for risky assets has improved, the US dollar and US stocks rebounded, suppressing the gold price. After the gold price was blocked at the 3500 mark, more short-term long profit settlement also dragged down the gold price. This trading day will be released on the initial monthly rate of durable goods orders in the United States in March and the number of initial unemployment claims in the United States for the week ending April 19. Investors need to pay attention to it. In addition, we need to continue to pay attention to the relevant news about the international trade situation and geopolitical situation.

Technical: From a technical perspective, the daily gold K-line chart shows that the current price has significantly separated from the recent high and entered the adjustment stage. As of Wednesday, the 50-period moving average is at US$3033.82, far lower than the current quote, indicating that the medium- and long-term trend is still on the rise. However, in the short term, the profit-taking pressure after the rapid price rise is obvious. The Relative Strength Index (RSI14) is currently at 63.76, and has fallen from the overbought area (above 70) in the previous few days to the normal trading range , suggesting that the market overheating sentiment is fading. Industry analysts pointed out that if RSI falls further to around 50, gold prices may test the key support level of $3,167 in early April. Looking ahead, the gold market will maintain high volatility under the dual influence of fundamentals and technology. In the short term, the cooling of risk aversion sentiment caused by Trump's moderate statement may continue to put pressure on gold prices, and the support levels of $3,282 and $3,167 will become key test points. If these levels are lost, the market may enter Step down to the medium-term moving average support near US$3,100. On the contrary, if the dollar weakens or geopolitical risks (such as the situation in Russia and Ukraine) heat up again, gold may rebound quickly, challenging US$3,415 or even higher resistance.

2) Analysis of crude oil market trend

On Thursday, crude oil trading was around 62.18. Market sentiment was boosted by the new round of US sanctions on Iran, and the US Treasury Department announced the core personnel of the network for liquefied petroleum gas and crude oil exports to Iran New sanctions were imposed by Vasaid Asadora Emamjomech and his corporate system. This round of oil price increases reflects the short-term positive for geopolitical and inventory side, but from a structural perspective, the market remains reserved for the demand outlook. Investors need to pay attention to this trading day, and in addition, we need to continue to pay attention to the news about the international trade and geopolitical situation.

Technical: From the daily chart level, crude oil is arranged downward, and the medium-term trend moving average system is arranged downward. After the oil price hits the low point of 55.20, the formation of bulls and bears frequently alternates, and accumulates the momentum of short positions in the medium term, and is expected to further decline to the 50 position in the later period. The short-term (1H) trend of crude oil fluctuates upward, and is well supported by the moving average system, and the short-term objective trend direction is upward. From the perspective of K-line distribution, short-term alternation of rising trends, and the repetition of upward trends Strong, it is expected that crude oil will continue to fluctuate repeatedly during the day and continue to hit new highs.

Foreign exchange market trading reminder on April 24, 2025

To be determined. G20 Finance and Central Bank Ministerial Meeting was held

15:15France April Manufacturing PMI preliminary value

15:30German April Manufacturing PMI preliminary value

16:00Eurozone April Manufacturing PMI preliminary value

16:30 The initial value of the manufacturing PMI in the UK in April

16:30 The initial value of the service PMI in the UK in April

17:00 The post-season adjustment trade account in the euro zone

21:30 The speeches of the Federal Reserve Mousalem and Waller

21:45 The initial value of the global manufacturing PMI in the US in April

21:45 The initial value of the global service PMI in the US in April

22:00 The total number of new home sales in the US in March

22:30 The US to 4 EIA crude oil inventories in the week of the 18th of the month

22:30 EIA Cushing crude oil inventories in the week of the United States to April 18th

22:30 EIA strategic oil reserve inventories in the week of the United States to April 18th

The next day, the Federal Reserve announced the Beige Book of Economic Conditions

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