US dollar index rises slowly, US stocks suffer from "Black Monday"

On March 11, early trading in the Asian market on Tuesday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 103.79. On Monday, the dollar index rebounded and returned to the 104 mark after Trump's remarks about the recession sparked risk aversion sentiment, but the yen's safe-haven appeal restricted its gains and eventually closed up 0.042% to 103.93. U.S. Treasury yields fell collectively, with the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields closed at 4.216%; and the two-year U.S. Treasury yields, which are more sensitive to monetary policy, closed at 4.894%. Affected by profit-taking and sharp drop in the stock market, spot gold fell sharply, once approaching the $2,880 mark, and finally closed down 0.74% at $2,889.33 per ounce. Spot silver closed down 1.32% at $32.1 per ounce. The two oils returned to their six-month lows amid concerns that the U.S. tariffs would slow the global economy and cut energy demand. WTI crude oil followed the US share of risky assets and finally closed down 1.72% at $65.71 per barrel; Brent crude oil finally closed down 1.72% at $68.98 per barrel.

Analysis of major currencies trends

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovers around 103.79. Market participants are preparing for the February Consumer Price Index (CPI), released on Wednesday, which is expected to provide key insights into inflation trends. The Fed entered a silent period before its March 19 meeting, limiting avatradescn.comments from the central bank this week. Technically, the most recent support level of the US dollar index is in the range of 103.20–103.40. Successful testing of this level will push the U.S. dollar index to the next support level 102.00–102.20.

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovers around 1.0845. The euro/dollar remained flat on Monday, closing at 1.0834, up 0.00%. EUR/USD on Monday cycled in a familiar region to start a new trading week in a significantly calming way as fiber traders prepare for this week’s data-intensive data. Stocks rose sharply on Monday, falling almost across the board as investors evacuated in the face of growing recession fears, but fiber traders have tightened their preparations before consolidating bets after awaiting key U.S. inflation data this week. Technically, breaking through the 1.0850 level will push the EUR/USD toward the nearest resistance level 1.0920–1.0935. RSI has recently entered mild areas, so there is plenty of room to get extra power in the near term.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD hovers around 1.2885. The pound/dollar fell on Monday to close at 1.2878, down 0.33%. The trade between the GBP and the US dollar on Monday remained at a familiar level, with a scarce economic schedule. Key U.S. inflation data and U.K. gross domestic product (GDP) data will be released later this week. This week, the U.S. economic schedule will include job openings for JOLTs on Tuesday, followed by a Consumer Price Index (CPI) released on Wednesday. Across the Atlantic, GBP/USD traders will focus on Friday’s GDP data. Technically, if GBP/USD falls below the recent low near 1.2875, it will move towards the support level in the range of 1.2810–1.2830.

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

Tuesday in Asian session on Tuesday, avatradescn.comGold trading around 2887.58. Gold prices began the week, falling 0.70% and falling below $2,900 as investors' concerns about the U.S. (US) recession grew amid a controversial trade policy by U.S. President Donald Trump. Gold traders took profits over fears that the U.S. economy is facing challenges in the stagflation scenario. Recent data suggest that the economy is slowing sharply. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model predicts a first-quarter 2025-2025--a-news--2.4%, which will be the first negative data since the COVID-19 pandemic.

Technical: Gold price fell to a five-week low of $2880, the momentum is about to turn bearish, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is expected to fall below the 50 neutral threshold. If gold closes below $2,900 a day, the seller may be responsible and targeting $2,850. A breakout through the latter will expose the February 28 low of $2,832, followed by the $2,800 mark. Conversely, if gold closes above $2900, the next resistance will be $2950, ​​followed by an all-time high of $2954. Breakthroughs through the latter will expose the $3,000 mark.

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

On Tuesday, crude oil trading was close to 65.28. Oil prices fell on Monday, with markets worried that US tariffs on Canada and Mexico and China impacted the global economy and weakened energy demand, while OPEC increased production further pressured oil prices. Last week, WTI fell for the seventh consecutive week, setting the longest consecutive decline since November 2023, while Brent crude has fallen for three consecutive weeks. President Donald Trump's trade protectionist policy has sparked global market turmoil, with Trump imposing and subsequently postponing tariffs on Canada and Mexico, the largest U.S. oil supplier, while raising tariffs on Chinese goods. In response, both China and Canada have imposed retaliatory tariffs.

Technical: Crude oil is falling as traders worry that tariffs will put significant pressure on oil demand. If WTI crude oil closes below $65.00, it will move towards the support level of $62.50 to $63.00.

Forex market trading reminder on March 11, 2025

① To be determined. US and Ukrainian officials held their first talks in Saudi Arabia

②18:00 US February NFIB Small Business Confidence Index

③22:00 US January JOLTs job vacancy

④EIA released its monthly short-term energy outlook report

⑤EIA next day 04:30 US next day to March 7 API crude oil inventories

The above content is about "[Ihua Foreign Exchange Market Review]: The US dollar index slows to rise, and US stocks suffered "Black Monday"". It was carefully avatradescn.compiled and edited by the Avatrade foreign exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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