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Hello everyone, today Avatrade Aihua Foreign Exchange will bring you "[Aihua Ava Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: The US dollar index rebounded, and gold once approached the $2,880 mark." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
Global stock markets plummeted and US Treasury rebounded, investors generally turned to safe assets, pushing the Bloomberg dollar index higher on Monday, and finally closed basically flat. The yen outperformed in the G10 currency.
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond fell 10 basis points to 4.21%; the S&P 500 fell 2.5%, and the Nasdaq 100 fell 3.5%.
Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn GlobalForex, said: "In addition to the dollar trend and partial profit settlement, another major focus of the market is the continued decline in U.S. stocks and the decline in U.S. interest rates."
The market as a whole is still focusing on trade tensions. After U.S. President Trump imposed tariffs on major trading partners, he decided to postpone some tariff measures by one month due to concerns about a slowdown in the U.S. economy.
In the currency futures market, investors cut net long positions in the U.S. dollar, down from a nine-year high of $35.2 billion in January to $15.3 billion.
Eugene Epstein, head of trading and structural products at Moneycorp, said: "From all signs, the Trump administration clearly wants the dollar to weaken, whether they admit it publicly or not."
The yen is rising at a time when broader risk aversion in the macro market appears. The US dollar/yen closed down 0.53% on Monday to 147.23, and fell to 146.63 during the session, the lowest since early October last year.
The rise in Japan's treasury bond yields also support the yen, with Japan's 10-year treasury bond yields rising to its highest since 2008.
The data on Monday showed that Japan's real wages rose 3.1% in January, up from 2.6% after revised in December last year, the largest increase since 1992.
The outside world expects the Bank of Japan to keep interest rates unchanged at its policy meeting from March 18 to 19, but officials have repeatedly stressed that it is necessary to observe whether wage growth is sustainable, which is also a key consideration after the rate hike in January.
Asian Market
Australia's NAB Business Confidence Index fell from 5 to -1 in February, erasing last month's gains and returning to below average levels. While business conditions slightly improved to 4 from 3, the decline in confidence showed that businesses remained cautious despite the recent RBA rate cuts and the fourth-quarter GDP data.
NAB chief economist Alan Oster pointed out that the boost in sentiment in January did not continue, indicating that there is continued uncertainty in the business environment. Continuous cost pressures and sluggish profitability appear to be key factors that suppress market sentiment, leaving confidence below the long-term normal.
In the business environment, trading conditions rose from 7 to 8, and profitability situation rose slightly from -2 to -1, but remained in the negative area. However, employment conditions dropped from 5 to 4.
Cost pressure remains a worrying issue, with procurement cost growth accelerating from 1.1% to 1.5% in quarterly equivalents. On the positive side, labor cost growth slowed to 1.5% from 1.7%, indicating that wage price pressure is gradually cooling down. Meanwhile, final product price growth slowed from 0.8% to 0.5%, although retail price inflation stabilized at 1.0%.
The Australian Consumer Confidence Index rebounded strongly in March, with Westpac Consumer Confidence Index rising 4.0% month-on-month to 95.9, the highest level in three years, not far from the neutral 100 mark.
Western Pacific attributes the improvement to slowing inflation and the RBA rate cut in February, which boosts household confidence. A positive view on employment security indicates that “a soft landing has been achieved.” Still, “disturbing overseas news” continues to put pressure on the broader economic outlook.
Looking forward with the upcoming meeting of the RBA from March 31 to April 1, Westpac expects the central bank to keep its cash rate unchanged. The RBA made it clear that the 25 basis points cut in February "does not mean that further rate cuts can be cut at subsequent meetings."
Westpac added that "a further slowdown in inflation will give the RBA enough confidence to make more rate cuts this year, and the next move will be taken at its May meeting".
European Market
Peter Kazimir, a member of the ECB Management avatradescn.committee of Slovakia, stressed the need for monetary policy flexibility and warned against making a decision to cut interest rates too early.
In a blog post, he stressed that inflation risks remain “inclined”On the upside.” He added that historical precedents show that tariffs tend to slow economic growth while pushing up prices – exactly what the ECB is trying to avoid.
In view of these uncertainties, Kazimir stressed the importance of keeping “all options open”, suggesting that the ECB could continue to cut further or suspend interest rates.
He made it clear that he was still seeking “undeniable confirmation” before approving any easing measures that the current deflation trend will continue to exist.
Because inflation dynamics remain avatradescn.complex, he stressed that “it is not a time for automatic decision-making or rushing. href="https://avatradescn.com/">avatradescn.com".
The Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index jumped from -12.7 to -2.9, far exceeding the market expectations of -10, reaching the highest level since June 2024. The status index improved relatively moderately from -25.5 to -21.8. The expected index soared from 1.0 to 18.0, the third consecutive rise and the highest reading since July 2021. The surge was the biggest monthly gain since 2012, indicating a huge shift in investor sentiment.
The German shift is even more impressive. The investment confidence index rose from -29.7 to -12.5, the best level since April 2023. The status quo index climbed from -50.8 to -40.5, the highest level since July 2024. Meanwhile, expectations soared from -5.8 to 20.5, the highest level since July 2021.
According to Sentix, this optimism is largely rooted Investor sentiment in the U.S., by avatradescn.comparison, has deteriorated significantly. The Sentix investor confidence index plummeted from 21.2 to -2.7, the lowest since 2023. The status index fell from 35.3 to 13.5, the lowest since September 2024, while the expectation index fell from 8.0 to -7.8, the lowest since November 2022.
Sentix will slump this time It is said to be a "historic turning point", the current value and expected value fell sharply at the same time, and it was only observed once during the 2008 financial crisis.
U.S. Market
U.S. Energy Secretary: U.S. President Trump may cancel tariffs on Canadian oil in April.
The Trump administration plans to cancel the Biden-era oil sale plan.
The latest consumer expectations survey of the New York Fed shows that short-term inflation expectations in the United States rose in February, medium- and long-term inflation expectations remained stable, and the public's expectations for a worsening financial situation in the next year are 2023The strongest since November.
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