U.S. recession bets sharply

Basic news

On Tuesday (March 11, Beijing time), spot gold trading was around 2884.36, and gold prices fell on Monday. As profit-taking took off offset the support of safe-haven demand brought by geopolitical uncertainty, U.S. inflation data also became the focus of market attention; U.S. crude oil fell, trading was around 65.68 US dollars per barrel, due to concerns that the US imposition of tariffs on Canada and Mexico would lead to a global economic slowdown and cut energy demand while OPEC+ increased supply.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 2.08% on Monday to 41,911.71 points; the S&P 500 fell 2.70% to 5,614.56 points; and the Nasdaq fell 4.00% to 17,468.32 points.

The key focus of the day: JOLTs job vacancy in the United States in January, China's social financing scale in February, ECB Management avatradescn.committee Renne delivered a speech on economic prospects and monetary policy, and the European Economic and Fiscal Affairs Council meeting.

Stock market

U.S. stocks fell sharply on Monday, with endless tariff debates and growing concerns about a possible shutdown in the federal government, raising concerns about the possible recession of the U.S. economy.

The large-scale selling in the previous week reappeared. As the trading period progressed, the momentum became increasingly fierce, and the three major U.S. stock indexes all fell sharply. The S&P 500 index hit its biggest single-day decline since December 18, with the Nasdaq Index, a major technology stock market, slumping 4.0%, the largest single-day percentage decline since September 2022.

The S&P 500 index hit its biggest weekly decline since September last week, and is currently less than oneThe closing record high set a month ago fell 8.6%.

Last Thursday, the Nasdaq fell more than 10% from its closing record high set on December 19, confirming that it has been in the correction range since then. The S&P 500 closed below the 200-day moving average for the first time since November 2023, which is a support level that the market is closely watching.

Tom Hainlin, national investment strategist at U.S.BankWealthManagement, said the day's decline was huge, but what we saw is a normal decline in the upside market, and concerns are intensifying, and investors are turning to wait and see, but we have not seen growth concerns reflected in the data.

Trump declined to avatradescn.comment on Sunday when asked whether markets’ negative reactions to his tariff actions on U.S. trading partners and whether anxiety related to his capricious policy shifts would push a weak economy into recession.

HSBC Holdings revised its ratings on the U.S. stock market on Monday, citing uncertainty caused by tariffs, and turned to be optimistic about European stocks amid relaxed fiscal reforms.

A Reuters survey of economists shows that the risk of recession in the United States, Canada and Mexico is increasing.

Tech stocks are under pressure from a strengthening yen and sovereign bond yields soaring, and investors close their yen arbitrage trading in anticipation of an upcoming interest rate hike.

Capital Hill lawmakers are racing against time to pass a spending bill to avoid a government shutdown, adding instability to the market.

The CBOE market volatility index, avatradescn.commonly known as the "Fear Index", hit its highest closing level since August 2024.

The technology sector fell the most, down 4.4% among the 11 major sectors of the S&P 500. The growth stock index fell 3.8%, the largest single-day decline since September 2022.

Tess fell 15.4%, the biggest single-day drop since September 2020. Tesla's stock has become less attractive due to the layoffs of the Ministry of Efficiency (DOGE) led by its CEO Musk and the protests triggered by protests.

Gold market

Gold prices fell on Monday as profit-taking offsets the support of safe-haven demand brought about by geopolitical uncertainty, while U.S. inflation data has also become the focus of market attention.

Spot gold fell 0.8% to $2887.67 an ounce, after a 2% increase in the previous week. U.S. gold futures closed down 0.5% at $2,899.40 per ounce. Gold prices paused slightly due to some slight profit-taking and weak stocks, said Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at KitcoMetals. However, we may see some safe-haven buying afterwards.

U.S. stock indexes plummeted as concerns that tit-for-tat tariffs could affect the world's largest economy. President Trump refusesThe stock market is concerned about his tariff action, predicting whether the U.S. will face a recession.

Investors are also paying attention to the U.S. Consumer Price Index data to be released on Wednesday and the producer price index to be released on Thursday. Traders have now fully digested the possibility of a U.S. rate cut in June.

Federal Chairman Powell said last Friday that it remains to be seen whether the Trump administration's tariff plan will lead to inflation.

Spot silver fell 1.5% to $32 per ounce. Platinum fell 0.4% to $959.35; palladium fell 0.9% to $941.38. Oil market

Oil prices fell 1% on Monday on fears that the U.S. tariffs on Canada and Mexico would lead to a global economic slowdown and cut energy demand while OPEC+ increased supply.

Brent crude oil futures closed at $69.28 per barrel, down 1.5%. U.S. crude oil futures closed at $66.03 a barrel, down 1.5%.

Last week, U.S. crude oil futures fell for the seventh consecutive week, setting the longest consecutive decline since November 2023, while Brent crude oil fell for the third consecutive week.

U.S. President Trump's protectionist policy has caused turmoil in the global market, and Trump has pushed for tariffs on Canada and Mexico, the largest U.S. oil supplier.

John Kilduff, a partner at AgainCapital in New York, said, "The oil market is panicking, and there are many factors that need to be digested as the transaction goes on," said the market that the US may experience a recession, which is very worrying for the macro situation. "

Last weekend, U.S. avatradescn.commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Trump will not relax pressure on tariffs on Mexico and Canada.

Investors are now worried that the economy may slow down, thereby curbing oil demand. Stocks continued to fall sharply under the influence of tariff concerns, with the S&P 500 falling 2% in the afternoon and the Nasdaq falling more than 3%. Oil prices often follow the stock market.

On Friday, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Nova k) said OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production starting in April, but could overturn the decision if the market has an imbalance in supply and demand.

In addition, on supply, Trump is trying to stifle Iran's oil exports as part of his efforts to put pressure on Tehran to control its nuclear program. Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Saturday that Iran will not be coerced to negotiate.

Trump said that if Russia fails to reach a ceasefire agreement with Ukraine, the United States willIncrease sanctions on Russia.

The United States is also studying how to relax sanctions on Russia's energy industry if Moscow agrees to end the war with Ukraine.

Later this week, investors will review the International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC monthly reports to understand their supply and demand forecasts.

Foreign exchange market

The dollar weakened against the yen on Monday as investors feared a possible slowdown in the U.S. economy and continued selling off due to continued uncertainty in Trump’s administration’s trade policy.

However, the dollar rose against some major currencies such as the euro, the Swiss franc and the pound as investors took profits on recent long positions in these currencies.

The market has generally been paying attention to trade tensions over fears of a slowdown in the U.S. economy, after U.S. President Trump imposed tariffs on major trading partners, some of which were postponed for a month. Wall Street stocks fell sharply on Monday, with the Nasdaq falling more than 4%, hitting a six-month low, with technology, consumer discretionary stocks and avatradescn.communications services falling one after another.

BannockburnGlobalForex chief market strategist Marc Chandler said: "In addition to the dollar and a small amount of profit-taking, the biggest theme is the continued decline in stock markets and the decline in U.S. interest rates. The decline in U.S. interest rates last week were considered a pressure on the dollar, and today we see a decline in biennium and 10-year yields by 8 to 9 basis points."

The dollar fell 0.47% against the yen to 146.33. It fell to 146.625 during the session, the lowest point since early October last year.

The US dollar fell against another safe haven currency, the Swiss franc, for most of the intraday session, but then rebounded. The dollar strengthened 0.26% to 0.882 against the Swiss franc after falling to its lowest level since early December.

The euro fell 0.08% against the dollar at $1.0823, but hovered around the four-month high as markets expected Europe could increase its spending on military aid to Ukraine. The euro made its best weekly performance in 16 years last week.

Directors expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 75 basis points this year, with the pricing of the interest rate cut in June being fully digested. Investors will pay attention to U.S. inflation data released on Wednesday.

Indicator U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell 9.7 basis points to 4.221%. The yield on the two-year bonds, which usually moves in conjunction with Fed rate expectations, fell 9.6 basis points to 3.906%.

In the currency futures market, investors have cut their net long positions in the U.S. dollar from a nine-year high of $35.2 billion in January to $15.3 billion.

Epstein added: "From the line, it seems to me that the Trump administration obviously wants the dollar to weaken, regardless of what they formally say or don't say."

The Norwegian kroner appreciates against the US dollar and the euro. The Norwegian kroner hit its highest in October, reaching 10.7833, after doubts over the Norwegian central bank's plan to start cutting borrowing costs in March after inflation soared.

The Canadian dollar fell 0.55% against the US dollar to 1.4459 Canadian dollars. Former central bank governor Carney, who won an overwhelming victory on Sunday, became the leader of the Canadian Liberal Party and served as prime minister, may confront the Trump administration on trade tariffs.

International News

Denmark: If necessary, he is willing to send European peacekeeping troops to Ukraine

On March 10, local time, Denmark Foreign Minister Rasmussen and Defense Minister Poulson said that if necessary, Denmark is willing to send European peacekeeping troops to Ukraine. "If it is to the point where European participation is needed to reach a ceasefire or peace agreement, then Denmark is ready in principle," Rasmussen said. However, no real plan has been developed yet, Poulson added. He said: "We have not made any decision to take any specific action. It must depend on how things develop."

The strikes of thousands of flights by employees at major German airports were cancelled

At the call of the German service industry union, staff at major German airports held a 24-hour strike on the 10th, resulting in the cancellation of thousands of flights and the travel of more than 500,000 passengers. 13 airports in Berlin, Frankfurt, Munich and Düsseldorf were affected by the strike. Among them, more than 1,050 flights at Frankfurt Airport were cancelled on the 10th. Affected by the German airport strike, more than 100 flights in Switzerland were cancelled on the 10th.

The Brazilian Central Bank slightly raised the country's inflation expectations for 2025

On March 10, local time, the "Focus Report" released by the Brazilian Central Bank showed that the Brazilian Central Bank raised the country's inflation expectations for 2025 from 5.65% to 5.68%, and the inflation expectations for 2026 remained unchanged at 4.4%. The Brazilian National Monetary avatradescn.commission sets the inflation management targets from 2024 to 2026 to 3%, allowing up and down to float by 1.5 percentage points. The report also shows that the Brazilian central bank's expectations for economic growth remained at 2.01%; the benchmark interest rate expectations for 2025 and 2026 remained at 15% and 12.5% ​​respectively.

Counterattack on the US tariffs imposed by the US. British Columbia, Canada, removes American alcoholic beverages

On March 10, local time, British Columbia, Canada, announced that it will remove all American-made alcoholic beverages in the province's liquor stores. David Ibi said the move is in response to the continued U.S. threat of imposing tariffs on Canadian goods entering the country, and also in response to US President Trump's intention to redefine the border between Canada and the United States. David Ibi said he is passing legislative tools to fight back against the upcoming tariffs on steel and aluminum.

U.S. Middle East Envoy: ZelianSki apologized to Trump for his actions in the White House

U.S. President's Special Envoy for the Middle East, Witkov, said on a Fox News program that Ukrainian President Zelensky has apologized to US President Donald Trump for the White House incident. "Zelensky sent Trump a letter to apologize for the incident that took place in the Oval Office," he said. Witkov said there was a lot of discussion about what happened between teams in the United States, Ukraine and European countries involved in the negotiations.

The British Prime Minister will host an online meeting on the Ukraine issue on the 15th

A spokesperson for British Prime Minister Stamer said on the 10th that Stamer will hold an online meeting with leaders of many countries on the 15th to discuss the situation in Ukraine. The spokesman said the meeting will be based on the London summit on March 2. On March 2, leaders of more than a dozen European and European Union countries, as well as Ukraine and Canada, held a summit in London, England. British Prime Minister Stamer said the meeting reached a four-point plan, including continuing to provide military support to Ukraine, reaching a peace agreement with Ukraine's participation, and establishing a coalition to maintain peace agreements.

Peru plans to send a delegation to meet with U.S. officials to meet the copper tariff challenge

Peru plans to send a delegation to meet with U.S. officials after the Trump administration announced plans to impose tariffs on copper, which could affect the largest export product in the South American country. "Under the new North American government, the rules of the game are changing rapidly," Montero, the country's energy and mining minister, told reporters on Monday. Peru is seeking to "avoid harming certain restrictive measures imposed by the interests of the United States." Montero did not discuss other Peruvian products that could be affected by U.S. tariffs, such as blueberries and table grapes. Montero said: "Peru is a good strategic ally of the United States on business issues, but not just for the United States." "Peru is a non-aligned country, open to everyone's investment and business. We are not avatradescn.committed to a specific geopolitical vision."

Domestic News

As of the end of February, the total scale of the Shanghai Stock Exchange ETF exceeded 2.7 trillion stock ETFs exceeded 2 trillion

The latest data from the Shanghai Stock Exchange shows that with the implementation of a series of policies for deepening reform of the capital market, the scale of the Shanghai Stock Exchange ETFs has grown rapidly and the product system has been continuously enriched. As of the end of February, a total of 638 ETFs were listed in the Shanghai Stock Exchange, with a scale of over 2.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 77% from the end of 2023. Among them, the Shanghai Stock Exchange stock ETF has exceeded 2 trillion yuan, and the total scale of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 ETF is 800 billion yuan, an increase of 2.33 times from the end of 2023; the total scale of the Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF is 170 billion yuan, and the total scale of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF exceeds 150 billion yuan. In addition, the launch of broad-based index products such as CSI A500, CSI A50, and Shanghai Stock Exchange 180 optimization provides more abundant allocation tools for medium- and long-term funds to enter the market. The scale of the Shanghai Stock Exchange A500 ETF is nearly 130 billion yuan, the scale of the A50 ETF reaches 13 billion yuan, and the scale of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 180 ETF exceeds 23 billion yuan.

Wu Qing: Improve the fund share transfer system and further open up diversified exit channels

Wu Qing, Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory avatradescn.commission, said on March 6 that he would continue to improve the regulatory system rules of private equity and venture capital funds, and promote the pilot program of physical distribution of stocks to investors around optimizing the reverse linkage policy for exits. Improve the fund share transfer system and further support the development of private equity secondary market funds (S funds), including mergers and acquisitions funds, to further smooth the diversified exit channels.

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