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Hello everyone, today Avatrade Aihua Foreign Exchange will bring you "[Aihua Foreign Exchange Platform]: German avatradescn.companies expand overseas investment, and short-term trend analysis of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on March 17". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
Global Market Review
1. European and American market trends
Dow futures, mainly blue-chip stocks, fell 0.02%; S&P 500 futures fell 0.10%; Nasdaq 100 futures, mainly based on technology stocks, fell 0.03%. European stock markets rose, with the German DAX index rising 0.33%; the French CAC40 index rising 0.73%; and the UK FTSE 100 index rising 0.18%.
2. Market news interpretation
The country's energy prices are high, and German avatradescn.companies expand overseas investment
According to the latest survey report released by the German Business and Industry Conference on March 17 local time, due to high energy costs, cumbersome administrative approvals and increasing tax burden, more and more German avatradescn.companies choose to turn their investment overseas, and Germany's attractiveness as an investment destination is rapidly declining. The survey results show that 40% of the surveyed avatradescn.companies plan to invest overseas, although this proportion has fallen from 42% last year, but it is still at a high level.
The market is optimistic that the German fiscal budget will be passed
The interest rate strategist at Dutch International Group said that the market expects the German Bundestag to approve the planned fiscal plan, and future alliance partners and the Green Party reached an agreement on the plan last Friday. "Some tail risks remain, and the Upper House (Germany Senate) is the next hurdle. However, the market seems to believe the plan will be passed." Strategists said that European spending plans are crucial to the economic outlook, as they reduce the risk of long-term economic stagnation in the future. Germany's massive fiscal expansion drives German Treasury yieldsThe rate has seen a historic sharp jump, but has fallen from its peak level.
Rwanda announced the severance of diplomatic relations with Belgium
On the 17th local time, the Rwanda Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced the severance of diplomatic relations with Belgium and expelled all diplomats. The Belgian Foreign Minister said on the same day that Belgium declared Rwandan diplomats as unpopular in response to Rwanda's decision to cut off diplomatic relations with Belgium.
Turkey plans to introduce new antitrust regulations that may conflict with the United States
Turkey is planning to introduce new regulations to curb the dominance of large tech avatradescn.companies, a move that mimics the EU's regulatory approach but may trigger US retaliation. Senior Turkish officials said the bill would soon be submitted to parliament and would prevent tech avatradescn.companies such as Apple, Google's parent avatradescn.company Alphabet, Meta and Amazon from favoring their services in search engines, app stores or markets. The bill, supported by the ruling party, was formulated in cooperation with Türkiye's antitrust authorities. Failure to avatradescn.comply with the rules could result in a fine of up to 10% of the avatradescn.company's annual revenue.
Brazilian economists adjust economic forecasts for 2025-2026
The survey released by the Brazilian Central Bank on March 17 showed that economists have adjusted their economic forecasts for Brazil in the next two years:
① 2025 IPCA inflation rate is expected to be 5.66%, a slight decrease from the previous forecast of 5.68%; the inflation rate in 2026 is expected to be 4.48%, higher than the previous forecast of 4.40%. ② The benchmark interest rate (Selic) forecast for the end of 2025 and 2026 remains at 15.00% and 12.50%. ③GDP growth forecast in 2025 was lowered from 2.01% to 1.99%; GDP growth forecast in 2026 was lowered from 1.70% to 1.60%. ④ The Brazilian real exchange rate forecast against the US dollar: it is 5.98 at the end of 2025, a slight appreciation from the previous forecast of 5.99; it remains unchanged by 6.00 at the end of 2026.
The U.S. Department of Justice applied to extend the deadline of the U.S.-Japan Steel v. CFIUS
① The U.S. Department of Justice filed a motion last week to apply to extend the two deadlines of the lawsuit against the avatradescn.commission on Foreign Investment (CFIUS). The U.S. Steel confirmed the motion in a document on Monday. ②The two avatradescn.companies jointly sued CFIUS in January for suggesting then-US President Biden rejecting the merger plan of US Steel and New Nippon Steel on national security grounds. ③ The Ministry of Justice's motion calls for the briefing of the CFIUS lawsuit to be extended by 21 days and rescheduled the oral debate in the week of May 12, rather than the originally planned April 24. ④ The document states that the purpose of extending the period is to provide the government with more timeavatradescn.comInternational discussions with Steel Corporation on the merger to eliminate litigation against CFIUS. ⑤In February this year, US President Trump said he did not object to the holding of a minority stake in US Steel.
European Central Bank Dekindos said the uncertainty brought by changes in U.S. policy is greater than the COVID-19 pandemic
European Central Bank Deputy Governor Louis Dekindos said that avatradescn.compared with the epidemic began to rage the world in early 2020, the economic uncertainty brought by the new U.S. government is more. In an interview with the British Sunday Times, Dekindos said that the Trump administration's planned trade tariffs on European goods are a source of uncertainty. But he said the U.S. government's plan to relax banking regulations and lower corporate taxes has also exacerbated uncertainty. "In general, what we're seeing is that the new U.S. administration is less willing to continue to pursue multilateralism, which involves cross-jurisdictional cooperation and finds avatradescn.common solutions to avatradescn.common problems," Dekindos said. "This is a very important change and an important source of uncertainty."
3. Trends of major currency pairs in the New York Stock Exchange before the New York Stock Exchange
Euro/USD: As of 20:20 Beijing time, the euro/USD rose, and is now at 1.0899, an increase of 0.15%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the euro/dollar exchange rate showed an upward trend due to the avatradescn.combined influence of economic data, monetary policy, geopolitics, market sentiment and capital flows. However, the foreign exchange market is avatradescn.complex and changeable, and factors may change at any time. Investors need to pay close attention to market trends, adjust their investment strategies in a timely manner, and deal with the risks of exchange rate fluctuations.
GBP/USD: As of 20:20 Beijing time, GBP/USD rose, now at 1.2972, an increase of 0.26%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the pound/USD exchange rate was affected by a avatradescn.combination of factors such as economic data, monetary policy, geopolitics, market sentiment and capital flows, showing an upward trend. However, the foreign exchange market is avatradescn.complex and changeable, and various factors may change at any time. Investors need to pay close attention to market trends and adjust their investment strategies in a timely manner to deal with possible exchange rate fluctuations risks.
Spot gold: As of 20:20 Beijing time, spot gold fell, now at 2985.64, a drop of 0.09%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, although there was a certain correction on the same day, in the long run, under the influence of factors such as the uncertainty of the global economic and political environment, the central bank's continued purchase of gold, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy expectations, gold prices are still expected to maintain high fluctuations and have upward potential. Investors need to pay close attention to the dynamic changes of various factors and grasp the investment opportunities in the gold market.meeting.
Spot silver: As of 20:20 Beijing time, spot silver fell, now at 33.695, a drop of 0.17%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, we will pay attention to the development trends of the White Banking Industry, especially the growth trend of emerging industries' demand for silver. Invest in high-quality enterprises related to silver, such as silver mining enterprises, silver processing enterprises, and enterprises that use silver in emerging industries, and share the dividends of industry development.
Crude oil market: As of 20:20 Beijing time, U.S. oil rose, now at 68.000, an increase of 1.24%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the substantial impact of these geopolitical events on crude oil supply has not yet been fully revealed, and the market responds more based on concerns about potential risks. However, if geopolitical tensions escalate further, it may have an impact on crude oil supply, change the current market supply and demand pattern, and thus affect the trend of oil prices.
4. Institutional View
Institutional: The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates as early as June
Bastian Freitag, head of German fixed income department of Rothschild Wealth Management, said that the Federal Reserve is expected to remain silent this week, and the earliest time window for the next rate cut is in June. Inflation continues to stagnate above the Fed's 2% target, and this sideways trend is likely to continue, Freitag said in a report. The punitive tariffs that the U.S. government has imposed and the tariffs that will still be imposed may continue to raise prices. “At the same time, we have observed a rise in inflation expectations based on surveys, which makes the Fed less room for premature rate cuts,” Freitag said. He expects the Fed to cut interest rates in June, September and the first quarter of 2026.
Morgan Stanley: German Treasury bond supply is expected to be controlled this year, but it will surge next year
Lorenzo Testa and Maria Chiara Russo of Morgan Stanley's research department said in a research report that Germany's treasury bond supply risks in 2025 seem to be under control, while the scale of German Treasury bond issuance is expected to surge in 2026. The two interest rate strategists said this should drive up volatility in yields and asset swaps. Germany's future joint ruling partner and the Green Party have agreed on a fiscal plan that paves the way for increased infrastructure investment and defense spending. The market's reaction to the fiscal plan is that euro zone government bonds have been sold on a large scale, especially German government bonds, but the two strategists believe that the peak of the sell-off has passed and the duration should beWill stabilize.
The above content is all about "[Ihua Foreign Exchange Platform]: German avatradescn.companies expand overseas investment, and short-term trend analysis of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on March 17". It was carefully avatradescn.compiled and edited by the Avatrade Foreign Exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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