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Hello everyone, today Avatrade Aihua Foreign Exchange will bring you "[Aihua Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: The offshore and energy ceasefire of Russia and Ukraine limits the increase in oil prices, and safe-haven demand supports gold prices. Iran is open to negotiations." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
Basic news
On Wednesday (March 26, Beijing time), spot gold trading was around 3021.38, gold prices rose on Tuesday. Supported by safe-haven demand, the tariff plan to be announced by US President Trump next week is uncertain, which may stimulate inflation; U.S. crude oil rose, trading was around 69.30 US dollars per barrel, oil prices rose and fell on Tuesday, and a maritime and energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine offsetted concerns about tightening global supply due to the U.S. threat of tariffs on countries that purchased Venezuelan oil.
The S&P 500 closed up 0.16% on Tuesday to close at 5776.65 points. The Nasdaq rose 0.46% to 18,271.86 points; the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.01% to 42,587.50 points.
Stock Market
U.S. stocks closed higher on Tuesday, Apple rose and Nvidia fell, investors assessed consumer confidence data and bet the Trump administration will adopt a more flexible trade policy stance next week.
U.S. President Trump said on Monday that car tariffs are about to be introduced, but he hinted that not all proposed tariffs will be implemented in the April 2 announcement, which Wall Street is closely watching. "I don't think we can get the clarity the market wants, but investors are eager to get it in that regard," said Ross Mayfield, investment strategist at Baird.Clear information of any kind. To some extent, it would be a big day if they could get some. "
Affected by concerns that Trump tariffs will fuel inflation and hurt economic growth, the S&P 500 has fallen about 2% so far in 2025 and is expected to record its first quarter decline since June 2023.
Rating agency Moody's said on Tuesday that U.S. fiscal strength may continue to decline for years as budget deficits expand and debt affordability declines.
Another report showed that the consumer confidence index fell, falling to 92.9 in March, the lowest since February 2021.
Apple rose 1.4%, helping the Nasdaq close higher, while Nvidia fell 0.6%.
Electric car maker Tesla shares rose 3.45%, Continuing the 12% gain on the previous day. The avatradescn.company's market share in Europe continued to shrink in February, with sales falling for the second straight month, despite overall growth in EV registrations in the continent.
Seven of the 11 industry indexes of the S&P 500, with avatradescn.communications services leading the rise, up 1.43%, followed by consumer discretionary products, up 0.98%.
Federal governor Coogler said the Fed's interest rate policy is still restrictive, but progress in bringing inflation back to the 2% target has slowed down. New York Fed Chairman Williams said "increased uncertainty" about the future economy among businesses and households.
A series of planned announcements this week Among the economic indicators, the Fed's preferred inflation indicator - the personal consumption expenditure price index will be released on Friday.
Gold market
Gold prices rose on Tuesday. U.S. President Trump's tariff plan to announce next week is uncertain, which may stimulate inflation. Spot gold was $3,021.88 per ounce, up 0.3%. U.S. gold futures closed up 0.3% higher and settled at $3,025.90.
CPMGroup executive partner Jeffrey Christian said: Investors are worried about the world situation, especially the U.S. policy, so they buy gold as a replacement asset because they are worried that the U.S. government may put the world in a global way. Recession.
Gold has risen more than 15% this year and hit a record high of $3,057.21 on March 20. Trump said that not all tax measures he threatened will be implemented on April 2 and some countries may receive relief. The Financial Times said Trump is considering implementing the tariff system in two steps next week.
Trump's tariff policy is widely expected to drag economic growth, trigger further trade tensions and push up inflation.
Atlanta Fed Chairman Bostic said he expects the benchmark interest rate to be cut by only 25 basis points by the end of the year, and the Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged last week, while suggesting a 50 basis point cut later this yearpoint.
Investors are currently awaiting the U.S. Personal Consumer Expenditure (PCE) price index to be released on Friday to look for hints about further policy trends in the Federal Reserve.
The United States said it had reached agreements with Ukraine and Russia respectively to ensure the safety of navigation in the Black Sea and to prohibit the two countries from launching a crackdown on each other's energy facilities.
Spot silver rose 1.9% to $33.61 per ounce; platinum rose 0.5% to $978.15; palladium rose 0.4% to $955.0. Oil markets
Oil prices rose and fell on Tuesday, with a maritime and energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine offsetting concerns about tightening global supply due to the U.S. threatening to impose tariffs on countries buying Venezuelan oil.
Brent crude oil futures closed up 0.03%, with a settlement price of $73.02 per barrel. U.S. crude oil futures fell 0.16% to settle at $69.
The United States reached an agreement with Ukraine and Russia on Tuesday, with Russia and Ukraine agreeing to a ceasefire in the Black Sea and suspending attacks on energy facilities, and Washington also pledged to push for the lifting of some financial sanctions on Moscow.
Kiev and Moscow both said they would rely on Washington to implement the agreement, while doubting whether the other party would avatradescn.comply with the agreement. Phil Flynn, senior analyst at PriceFuturesGroup, said: "If Russia and Ukraine ceasefires, it could open the door to reduce sanctions on Russian oil."
Crude oil from both major indicators rose more than 1% on Monday, with oil as Venezuela's main export product.
Meanwhile, four sources told Reuters that OPEC+ may increase oil production for the second consecutive month in May as oil prices stabilize and the alliance plans to force some member states to reduce production to make up for past overquota production, four sources told Reuters.
Foreign market
The dollar weakened against the yen on Tuesday and remained stable against the euro as uncertainty over U.S. President Trump's plan to impose tariffs has kept traders cautious. The dollar rebounded the day after the dollar rebounded due to optimism about Trump's possible flexibility in imposing import tariffs.
MonexUSA forex trader Helen Given said, "Today (Tuesday), global trading models tend to be risk aversion, while yesterday (Monday) had a more risk-oriented approach, noting that Monday's market volatility "is basically based on some news titles and has no substantial basis. ”
Trump said on Monday that not all tariffs that threaten to impose will be implemented on April 2, and some countries may receive relief.
The dollar weakens due to concerns that tariffs will cause a slowdown in the U.S. economy and rekindle inflation. However, the optimism about tariffs will not heat up as bad as people fear, helping the dollarIt has stabilized in the past few weeks.
On Monday, S&P Global released its initial U.S. Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) value, which helped offset concerns about the recent contraction of the U.S. economy.
But Tuesday's data showed that U.S. consumer confidence fell for the fourth straight month in March, with households pessimism about the future at its highest level in 12 years.
The dollar fell 0.58% to 149.81 yen, reaching a three-week high of 150.94 earlier. The trend of this interest rate-sensitive currency pair occurs when U.S. Treasury yields fall in the day.
Bank of Japan's decision-makers discussed the pace of further rate hikes after deciding to raise short-term interest rates to their highest point in 17 years, according to the minutes of the January meeting released by the Bank of Japan on Tuesday.
Last week, the Bank of Japan maintained interest rates stable and warned of increased uncertainty in the global economy, suggesting that the timing of further rate hikes will largely depend on the impact of U.S. tariffs.
The euro has changed little after volatile trading, and earlier, a survey showed that German business morale rose in March, with avatradescn.companies expecting a recovery in Europe's largest economy to experience two years of shrinkage, boosting the euro.
At the same time, French central bank governor Villeroy de Galo told a German newspaper that the ECB still has room to lower interest rates further, with the 2.5% deposit rate likely to drop to 2% before the end of the summer.
The euro fell 0.02% to $1.0798 in late trading. It had hit $1.0774 earlier, the lowest level since March 6. Moments in the end-of-month and end-of-quarter positioning later this week and next Monday could boost the dollar.
Speculators turned net bearish against the dollar last week, the first time since October, according to the avatradescn.commodity Futures Trading avatradescn.commission data on Friday.
The Australian dollar climbed after the Australian government launched new tax cuts and announced other cost-of-living relief measures on Tuesday, vigorously regaining dissatisfied voters. The Australian dollar rose 0.19% to $0.6296 in late trading.
The pound rose 0.19% to $1.2943, and traders are looking forward to a spring statement issued on Wednesday, where the Chancellor of the Exchequer Reeves is expected to cut government spending in the statement to meet fiscal regulations.
Traders are also paying attention to negotiations on a possible peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine. The U.S. reached a deal with Ukraine and Russia on Tuesday over a truce in the Black Sea and a moratorium on attacks on energy facilities, and Washington also pledged to push for some financial sanctions on Moscow.
International News
The U.S. Republican Party is approaching a tax cut plan with a focus on a debt ceiling agreement
U.S. Republican Party (Senate and House) leaders said they are approaching agreement on a plan to extend Trump's 2017 tax cuts and raise debt ceilings, and Congress hopes to approve an economic plan by the end of May. U.S. House Speaker Johnson at the Treasury Department on Tuesday"I don't want to be ahead of what the Senate is going to do. But it sounds like our differences aren't too far, and that's a good thing, so we'll be able to take action," said Johnson. "The Senate is "turning" to support raising debt ceilings as part of the legislation. Senate Majority Leader Thun said he believes “a consensus is being formed” around the debt ceiling plan, a question that has been a key crux of the Senate and the House for weeks. Earlier this month, the House passed a plan to raise the debt ceiling as part of tax legislation, but Senate Republicans have been slow to accept the idea. Incorporating wording on debt ceilings into the tax bill puts pressure on the Republicans to pass legislation before the federal debt ceiling is broken.
The U.S. Treasury Department plans to lay off employees on a large scale in response to the Department of Government Efficiency Downs initiative
According to court documents submitted by U.S. Treasury officials, the Treasury Department is planning a large-scale layoff in response to the push of Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) to reduce the size of federal government employees. The Treasury Department is determining a final layoff plan and implementing the executive order signed by President Trump on the implementation of the DOGE initiative. According to court documents, these plans will be customized for various agencies under the Ministry of Finance, and in many cases it will reduce a large number of jobs through layoffs. The U.S. Treasury Department's IRS, the Bureau of Finance, the Mint and the Bureau of Currency Supervision, have a total of more than 100,000 employees. Finance Minister Bescent once stressed that the focus of the DOGE program is to improve the efficiency of the public sector.
Russia and Ukraine banned attacks on energy facilities within 30 days. Russia and Ukraine announced a list of energy facilities.
On March 25 local time, the Kremlin website released a list of energy facilities agreed by Russia and the United States for ban attacks on Russia and Ukraine. The list includes: refining avatradescn.companies, including oil and natural gas pipelines and oil and gas storage facilities, power stations, substations, transformers, distribution equipment and other power generation and power transmission infrastructure, nuclear facilities, hydropower station dams. Attacks to the above-mentioned categories of Russian-Ukrainian energy facilities are prohibited within 30 days from March 18, 2025. The relevant agreement can be extended, and the other party may withdraw from the agreement if either party defaults.
Iranian Foreign Minister: The channels for indirect negotiations with the United States are open
According to the news agency of the Islamic Republic of Iran on March 24, Iranian Foreign Minister Aragzi reiterated that Iran and the United States have "open channels for indirect negotiations", but Iran will not negotiate directly with the United States unless the US government adjusts its policy toward Iran.
Russia announced the results of the Saudi talks: The Black Sea navigation security agreement will take effect after the partial sanctions against Russia
On March 25 local time, the Russian Kremlin website issued a statement on the main results of the Saudi talks between the Russian and American expert groups. The statement stated: 1. According to the agreement reached by the Russian and American presidents, the two sides agreed to ensure the implementation of the "Black Sea Initiative", which includes ensuring the safety of navigation in the Black Sea waters, not using force, and not allowing merchant ships to be used for military purposes.The necessary measures will be taken to manage the inspection of the vessel. 2. The United States will promote Russia to resume exporting agricultural products and fertilizers to the international market, reduce maritime insurance costs, and expand the scope of ports and payment systems involved in avatradescn.completing relevant exchanges. Points 1 and 2 will take effect under the following conditions: lift the sanctions restrictions on the Agricultural Bank of Russia and other financial organizations that ensure the avatradescn.completion of international food (including fish products) and fertilizer trade, incorporate them into the SWIFT system, and avatradescn.complete the opening of relevant accounts; lift the restrictions on trade and investment behavior; lift the sanctions restrictions on grain (including fish products), fertilizer producers and exporters, and lift the restrictions on relevant insurance avatradescn.companies; lift the restrictions on port service restrictions on Russian ships engaged in food (including fish products) and fertilizer trade and the sanctions on Russian ships; lift the restrictions on supplying agricultural machinery and other goods related to grain (including fish products) and fertilizer production to Russia. 3. Russia and the United States agreed to formulate specific measures to implement the agreement reached by the heads of state of the two sides to ban attacks on Russia-Ukrainian energy facilities within 30 days from March 18, 2025. The agreement can be extended and the other party may withdraw from the agreement when either party defaults. 4. Russia and the United States welcome third-party countries to provide good faith assistance to the implementation of the energy and maritime agreements. 5. Russia and the United States will continue to work hard to achieve a stable and lasting peace.
The U.S. consumer confidence index fell to its lowest level in four years. Inflation expectations rose sharply
The U.S. consumer confidence index fell to its lowest level in four years in March. In the context of escalating tariffs, inflation and economic outlook are worrying. Data released by the World Federation of Large Enterprises on Tuesday showed that the consumer confidence index fell 7.2 points to 92.9, with economists surveyed by Bloomberg estimates a median of 94. The expected indicator, which looks to the outlook for the next six months, fell nearly 10 points to 65.2, the lowest level in 12 years. The decline in the current status indicators was slightly moderate. Inflation expectations for the avatradescn.coming year have risen to their highest levels in two years. The one-year inflation forecast in the University of Michigan survey in early March hit its highest since 2022. "Consumer optimism about future income has basically disappeared, and concerns about the economy and labor market are beginning to affect consumers' assessment of their own financial situation," said Stephanie Guichard, senior economist at the World Federation of Large Enterprises.
Domestic News
Vivo Chief Operating Officer: Robots are the future of the mobile phone industry
"Robots are the future of the mobile phone industry. It will become a bridge connecting the physical world and the digital world." On March 25, Hu Baishan, executive vice president, chief operating officer, and director of the vivo Central Research Institute, said during the 2025 annual meeting of the Boao Forum for Asia that the current AI and robots represent the top technical achievements of the digital world and the physical world respectively, but the two worlds are still in a relatively independent state and cannot be perfectly linked.
Humanoid robot manufacturer has exploded, overseas technology bloggers fall in love with domestic robots
Since this year, domestic robots haveThe market is constantly "new" and the popularity of humanoid robots remains high. The person in charge of a robot manufacturer in Suzhou said that the order for humanoid robots has been scheduled to May and June, and now every one is sent off the line, one will be delivered. With evolving skills and relatively low prices, the "new technology favorite" made in China is also attracting the attention of consumers around the world. As one of the main players of overseas buyers, many technology bloggers have shared unboxing videos of themselves purchasing Chinese robots on video websites.
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