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Hello everyone, today Avatrade Aihua Foreign Exchange will bring you "[Avatradescn".]: The Australian budget attracted attention, and the short-term trend analysis of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on March 25." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
Global Market Review
1. European and American market conditions
The three major stock index futures fell, with Dow futures mainly blue-chip stocks falling 0.15%; S&P 500 futures falling 0.15%; and Nasdaq 100 futures mainly technology stocks falling 0.25%. European stock markets rose, with the German DAX index rising 0.77%; the French CAC40 index rising 0.99%; and the UK FTSE 100 index rising 0.50%.
2. Market news interpretation
The Australian Budget has attracted attention
The key issue of Australia's 2025-2026 budget is that the government decides to launch a new round of income tax cuts from mid-2026, which will increase the average income by an additional $536 a year by 2027-2028. While these tax cuts contribute little to the household budget, it is unlikely to immediately attract the attention of the RBA because their implementation takes time.
Gold futures approaches historical highs Capital flows and US data have caused price ups and downs
Both strong demand, gold futures prices have risen to near historical highs. Analysts at avatradescn.commerzbank noted in a report that gold speculative net long positions increased significantly for the first time in two months in the last reporting week, while gold-traded open-end index funds have also gained popularity recently. In the past nine trading days to Friday, the world's largest gold ETF had inflows of 8 days, and the ETF recorded an increase in holdings of more than 20 metric tons on Friday - the largest single day in a monthFund inflow. avatradescn.commerzbank wrote in the report that there were a small outflow of funds on Monday, which may be due to better-than-expected U.S. economic data and the resulting market expectations for the Fed's rate cut. Since then, gold prices have recovered these losses.
Wall Street futures fell, Trump's tariff remarks sparked market concerns
①U.S. stock futures hesitated on Tuesday, and investors weighed the upcoming tariff scope after the Trump administration hinted that policies might be more flexible. ② According to Refinit, Trump said not all threatening tariffs will be implemented from April 2, and some countries may receive exemptions, and the market sees it as a signal of flexibility. ③However, futures fell on Tuesday as uncertainty over Trump's tariff rhetoric affected market sentiment. ④ The US consumer confidence index in March will be released at 10:00a.m.ET and is expected to deteriorate further.
Nordic electricity prices rose slightly due to drought weather expectations
①Nordic electricity prices rose on Tuesday, supported by a slight decline in reservoir water levels in the drought weather forecast and hydropower-dependent areas. ② Nordic power base-load contract price rose by 0.55 euros to 24.2 euros per megawatt-hour in the previous quarter. ③EnergiDanmark analyst Karsten Sander Nielsen said the weather forecast was drier than yesterday, but the reason for the price increase was not obvious and the volatility was small. ④Northern Europe has available water reserves in 15 days, down from 10.85 terawatt hours on Monday. ⑤LSEG meteorologist Georg Muller said that the weather will be calm next week, and there will be more sunshine and dry weather in the southern region.
Canadian stock futures rose, driven by oil prices and gold prices
①Canadian major stock index futures rose on Tuesday, as geopolitical tensions and tariff uncertainty drove oil prices, gold prices and copper prices. ②S&P/TSX index futures rose 0.2% to 6.50ET (1050GMT). ③ Crude oil prices have risen for the fifth consecutive day as the United States imposes tariffs on countries that buy Venezuelan crude oil, causing concerns about tightening global supply. ④ Gold prices rose due to uncertainty brought about by US tariffs and their impact on the global economy. ⑤ Copper prices rose slightly due to potential tariff problems that led to their flow to the United States, but the strengthening of the US dollar restricted the gains.
UK retail sales declined, consumer confidence weakened
①UK retailers saw the largest decline in sales in March, and it is expected to improve almost next month, and consumers showed caution. ② The monthly retail sales index of the United Kingdom Federation of Industry (CBI) fell from -23 in February to -41 in March, the lowest level since July last year. ③ The sales expectation index will remain at -30 in the next month. ④CBI chief economist Martin Sartorius said global trade tensions and fall budgets have negative impacts on consumer and business confidence, leading to demandreduce.
The U.S. Treasury yield curve may steeper further
① Henry Allen of Deutsche Bank Research Department said that it is entirely possible for the U.S. Treasury yield curve to go further. ② This kind of steepness may be the result of a decline in short-term yield or an increase in long-term yield. ③ The Federal Reserve plans to cut interest rates further, and it is expected to cut interest rates twice this year, which will lower short-term yields. ④ The potential fiscal stimulus brought by extending Trump’s tax cuts will push up long-term yields. ⑤ Currently, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose 3 basis points to 4.360%, and the two-year U.S. Treasury yield rose 2 basis points to 4.036%.
Indian Ministry of Finance and Central Bank officials will discuss loan plans from April to September
① According to sources, Indian Ministry of Finance and Central Bank officials will meet on March 26 to decide on India's market loan plans from April to September. ② The federal government will borrow from the debt market in the 2025-26 fiscal year to reach 14.82 trillion rupees (approximately US$172.92 billion)
Australia's 2025-26 fiscal year budget focuses on tax cuts and family relief
① Australian Treasury Minister Jim Chalmers announced the 2025-26 fiscal year budget, focusing on further tax cuts and extended family cost relief. The federal election is expected to be held within a few days. ② Based on the tax cut announced in mid-2024, the planned income tax cut will benefit all workers. The average income tax cut for workers in fiscal 2026-27 was AUD 268, and increased to AUD 536 in fiscal 2027-28. ③ Despite Australia's economic recovery, low unemployment rate and strong avatradescn.commodity prices, the budget still expects a deficit of A$42.1 billion in fiscal 2026, with net government debt accounting for 23.1% of GDP by fiscal 2028-29, up from the current 19.9%.
The UK Financial Conduct Authority promotes the review of consumer liability rules
① The UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) outlined the next steps in the review of consumer liability rules on March 25, 2025. ② The FCA plans to review mortgage and loan expectations recommendations to ensure that relevant rules meet current market and consumer needs. ③ At the same time, the FCA will also review some of the contents of the credit advertising rules, especially the lengthy terms and conditions, to improve transparency and understandability. ④ The FCA plans to abolish over 100 pages of outdated guidelines to simplify supervision of consumer finance, investment and mortgage avatradescn.companies. ⑤In addition, FCA's plan also includes re-examining business rules for foreign customers in the UK to adapt to changes in the international market.
It is reported that India is willing to cut tariffs on imports from the United States by 55%
Sources said that India is open to cutting tariffs on imports from the United States by 55% (valued at US$23 billion), with the reduction ranging from 5% to 30%, and can be reduced to zero at least. India estimates U.S. reciprocal tariffs will be worth 66 billion to its exports to the U.S.US dollar goods have an impact. India hopes to obtain exemptions from U.S. reciprocal tariffs under the conditions of cutting tariffs.
European auto market was cold in February. Tesla's new car registration volume plummeted by 40%.
European auto sales in February saw the largest drop in five months, as economic uncertainty prompted consumers to be reluctant to buy cars. The European Automobile Manufacturers Association said on Tuesday that new car registrations fell 3.1% from the same period last year to 963,540 units. Spain is the only major market in the region with rising sales, with electric vehicle registrations rising by 61%. The continued downturn in several of the region's largest economies has suppressed consumer confidence. Meanwhile, U.S. tariff threats and avatradescn.competition from Chinese automakers have also increased pressure. https://avatradescn.comTesla's new car registrations in Europe fell by 40% as consumers remained unhappy with Musk's political stance and his support for the German choice of the party.
3. Trends of major currency pairs in the New York Stock Exchange before the New York Stock Exchange
Euro/USD: As of 20:20 Beijing time, the euro/USD rose, and is now at 1.0822, an increase of 0.19%. Before New York, the EUR/USD price fell in recent intraday trading as the downward correction wave dominated in the short term due to trading below the 50 candle SMA, coupled with negative signals from the stochastic indicators, despite reaching oversold levels.
GBP/USD: As of 20:20 Beijing time, GBP/USD rose, now at 1.2952, an increase of 0.22%. Before New York, the GBP/USD price fell in recent intraday trading due to downward correction waves dominant and prices were hurt by the negative rising wedge pattern formed in the short term, which increased the possibility of more negative pressure.
Spot gold: As of 20:20 Beijing time, spot gold rose, now at 3017.16, an increase of 0.18%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, gold prices expanded their gains during the session, boosted by positive signals from the stochastic indicators after forming a positive divergence, while prices rely on the support of the 50 candlestick, further supporting the price.
Spot silver: As of 20:20 Beijing time, spot silver rose, now at 33.386, an increase of 1.21%. Before New York, silver prices rose in the latest intraday trading, subject to stochastic indicators after reaching oversold levelsThe boost from the positive signal sent, the price retested the important resistance of $33.30, dominating the downward correction wave, while the price was hurt by breaking through the uptrend line.
Crude oil market: As of 20:20 Beijing time, U.S. oil rose, now at 69.630, an increase of 0.77%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, U.S. crude oil prices remained rising during the session, with an upward correction trend dominant in the short term as prices moved along the trend line, and the rise was achieved despite a series of negative signals from the stochastic indicators, and prices tried to vent overbought saturation there.
4. Institutional view
JP Morgan Chase: European banking industry has a long-term valuation lower than the United States
JP Morgan Chase pointed out in a research report that avatradescn.compared with its American counterparts, European banks' current revaluation seems to be a bit too much. The brokerage downgraded the European banking industry's rating from "overweight" to "neutral". "In the long run, European banking stocks are unlikely to receive a valuation premium over U.S. banks that are mainly financial-centric businesses," said analysts at JPMorgan Chase.
The above content is all about "[Ava Ava Foreign Exchange Platform]: The Australian Budget attracted attention, Analysis of the short-term trend of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on March 25" was carefully avatradescn.compiled and edited by the Avatrade Foreign Exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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