The US dollar index returns to the 104 mark, and the market focuses on policy shifts and economic resilience

On March 25, early trading in the Asian market on Tuesday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 104.36. On Monday, the U.S. dollar index returned to the 104 mark as data showed a rebound in corporate activity in March, and finally closed up 0.16% to 104.31. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.3460%; the two-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.0430%. Affected by the strengthening of the US dollar, spot gold continued to pull back after hitting 3033, and finally closed down 0.39% at $3011/ounce. Spot silver finally closed down 0.01% at $33.12 per ounce. International oil prices continue to rise as Trump said he would impose a 25% tariff on countries that buy oil and gas from Venezuela. WTI crude oil finally closed up 1.25% at $69.10 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed up 1.22% at $73.01 per barrel.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovers around 104.36. The U.S. dollar index maintained its upward momentum on Monday, achieving a cumulative rebound of four days. The dollar is benefited by a strong S&P Services Purchasing Managers Index and the cautious attitude of Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Rafael Bostic. U.S. President Donald Trump once again issued a rippling of tariff threats to investors. Investors seized on the hint that Trump might consider tariff exemptions on his own trade policy "strategy" to enhance market sentiment and keep the dollar within a certain range. Technically, the U.S. dollar index is trying to close below resistance level 104.30–104.50 above. If this attempt is successful, it will move towards the next resistance level in the range 105.50–105.70.

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovers around 1.0801. EUR/USD fluctuated, testing fell below the 1.0800 mark, and market sentiment continued to be affected by mixed economic data and ongoing tariff concerns. Investors have found some relief after U.S. President Donald Trump hinted that a tariff exemption could be imposed on April 2, but the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) findings still warn that more problems may arise. The economic data schedule remains at a moderate level in mid-week market trading, but traders will closely monitor the upcoming inflation data of the U.S. personal consumption expenditure price index on Friday. If the EUR/USD closes below the nearest support level 1.0760–1.0775, it will move towards the next support level 1.0630–1.0650.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.2917. The GBP/USD performed poorly on Monday, hovering around the 1.2900 mark as the new week started, and new hesitation emerged. Economic data from the UK and the US were mixed on Monday, with avatradescn.companies surveyed swaying expectations for their PMI. Tuesday's economic calendar data is less, but pound traders will be watching the upcoming UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data for February, which will be released on Wednesday. The annual rate of CPI inflation in the UK is expected to drop slightly to 2.9%, below 3.0%. Technically, if GBP/USD remains below the support level of 1.2935–1.2950, ​​it will move towards the next support level of 1.2810–1.2830.

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

Table of gold trading around 3014.06 on Tuesday. Gold prices continued to decline for the third consecutive trading day, as market sentiment improved due to reports that reciprocal tariffs will be concentrated in some U.S. (US) trading partners. A Bloomberg article shows that the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump will target specific countries on April 2 instead of imposing reciprocity tariffs on most countries. Instead, these measures target the so-called Dirty15 trading partners.

Technical: The rising trend of gold prices still exists, but with XAU/USD fell below $3,010, traders are making profits and may break through the $3,000 mark. Breakthroughs of the latter will expose the swing high of $2956 on February 24, followed by the $2900 mark and the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) $2874. Conversely, if gold remains above $3,000, the first resistance level will be the 21 peaks in March at $3,047, followed by the year-to-date (YTD) highs $3,057 and $3,100 mark.

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

On Tuesday, crude oil trading around 68.97. There is a volatile game between expectations of increased supply brought by the ceasefire negotiations and the support of OPEC+ production cut policies. In the short term, market sentiment may continue to be affected by geopolitical events and OPEC+ policies. In the future, investors need to pay close attention to the progress of Russia-Ukraine negotiations, OPEC+ production policies, and the subsequent impact of US sanctions on Iran to grasp the volatility of oil prices. The total number of new home sales in the United States in February and the US Consultative Conference Consumer Confidence Index in March will be released on this trading day, and investors need to pay attention. In addition, it is necessary to pay attention to the speeches of Fed officials.

Technical: From the daily chart level, crude oil continues to fluctuate around the lower level after falling below the lower edge of the range. Oil prices are suppressed by the moving average system, and the medium-term objective trend is downward. However, from the perspective of momentum, the bearish advantage is not strong, and it is expected that the medium-term trend will still maintain a period of fluctuation, waiting for a downward breakthrough to establish a downward trend. The short-term (1H) trend of crude oil was blocked and fell back on the upper edge of the range, and eventually rebounded and did not break through the record high. The kinetic energy of bulls and bears is anxious, the short-term objective trend direction is unclear, and the subjective direction is upward. It is expected that crude oil will break through the upper edge of the range during the day and continue to rise, with limited space.

Forex market trading reminder on March 25, 2025

①17:00 Germany's March IFO Business Indices

②19:00 UK's March CBI retail sales difference

③20:40 Fed Director Coogler delivered a speech

④21:00 US January FHFA House Price Index Monthly Rate

⑤21:00 US January S&P/CS 20 major cities unseasonally adjusted housing price index annual rate

⑥21:05 US Federal Reserve Williams delivered a speech at an event

⑦22:00 US February new home sales annualized

⑧22:00 US March Consulting Chamber of avatradescn.commerce Consumer Confidence Index

⑨22:00avatradescn.com United States March Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

⑩ The next day is 04:30 USAPI crude oil inventories for the week of March 21

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