U.S. tariffs on Venezuela boost oil prices, Trump tariffs emphasize "resilience" as dollar hits its highest in more than two weeks

Basic news

On Tuesday (March 25, Beijing time), spot gold trading was around 3011.57, gold prices fell on Monday, and the US dollar hit its highest in more than two weeks. Investors evaluated U.S. President Trump's more cautious position on imposing tariffs on trading partners. U.S. crude oil rose, trading around $69.19 per barrel, and U.S. President Trump said he would impose a 25% tariff on countries that buy oil and gas from Venezuela, boosting oil prices.

The S&P 500 closed up 1.76% on Monday to close at 5767.57 points. The Nasdaq rose 2.27% to close at 18,188.59 points, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.42% to close at 42,583.32 points.

Stock and P.P.500 rose sharply on Monday, closing at its highest point in more than two weeks, boosted by Nvidia and Tesla, thanks to signs that the Trump administration may take more modest measures on tariffs on U.S. trading partners.

U.S. President Trump originally planned to start imposing extensive tariffs on April 2, but may now exclude tariffs from certain specific industries, according to media reports over the weekend, citing government officials. On Monday, an official from the Trump administration warned that the situation is still changing and no final decision has been made.

Investors rushed to buy frustrated technology stocks, Nvidia rose more than 3%, and AMD rose 7%, causing the PHLX chip index to rise 3%.

Tesla has risen nearly 12%, the largest single-day gain since early November, regaining some recent sharp drops, mainly due to the possibility of the United States' ability to reduce tariffsObserve expectations. The S&P 500 has rebounded about 4% from its recent low on March 13, but is still down about 6% from its all-time high closing price on February 19.

Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, said: "Investors were slightly relieved, but at the same time, they were skeptical about how long this situation might last. The root cause of this artificial adjustment has not yet disappeared. The problem is the tariffs and their possible impact on economic growth, inflation and corporate profits."

Several avatradescn.companies have lowered their forecasts for the avatradescn.coming quarters, citing tariff uncertainty. As of last Friday, data avatradescn.compiled by the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) showed that the S&P 500 earnings are expected to grow 10.5% in 2025, down 3.5 percentage points from the forecast at the beginning of the year.

The Russell 2000 index, which focuses on the domestic market in the United States, rose 2.55%, hit a two-week high. The CBOE market volatility index, known as the Wall Street panic indicator, fell 1.8 points to its lowest in a month. Trading in the U.S. stock market is relatively quiet, with a total of 13.6 billion shares sold on each exchange, and the average daily trading volume in the past 20 full trading days was 16.5 billion shares.

10 of the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 rose, with the non-essential consumer sector leading the gains, with an increase of 4.07%. Boosted by Tesla, the avatradescn.communications service sector followed closely, up 2.1%.

The survey showed that U.S. corporate activity increased in March, but concerns over import tariffs and sharp government spending cuts continued to put pressure on market sentiment and the prospects for the rest of the year. Investors are awaiting data for this week, including the Personal Consumer Expenditure (PCE) price index to be released on Friday, a inflation indicator favored by the Federal Reserve. Gold prices fell on Monday, with the dollar hitting its highest in more than two weeks, and investors assessed U.S. President Trump’s more cautious stance on imposing tariffs on trading partners. Spot gold fell 0.6% to $3,006.84 an ounce. US gold futures closed down 0.2%, with a settlement price of US$3,015.60.

Bart Melek, head of avatradescn.commodity strategy at TD Securities, said: "We have set record highs after record highs, and the market is now just consolidating these gains, and the rise in the US dollar has strengthened this to a certain extent."

Gold prices have hit 16 record highs this year, and last week it once reached $3,057.21. The dollar rose 0.2%, reaching its highest in more than two weeks.

Trump hinted last Friday that there will be some flexibility for the reciprocal tariffs that will avatradescn.come into effect on April 2, which are expected to stimulate inflation and hinder economic growth.

The Fed kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged last week and said it would cut interest rates twice this year, at 25 basis points each time.

Investors are currently waiting for the U.S. personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price data on Friday, which is the United NationsThe inflation indicator favored by Chu.

U.S. and Russian officials held talks in Saudi Arabia, hoping to make progress towards a broad ceasefire in Ukraine, and Washington hopes to reach a separate Black Sea maritime ceasefire agreement before a broader agreement is reached.

Spot silver fell 0.3% to $32.94 an ounce, platinum fell 0.5% to $969.77 and palladium fell 0.7% to $951.10. Oil market

Oil prices rose 1% on Monday, with U.S. President Trump saying he would impose a 25% tariff on countries that buy oil and gas from Venezuela.

However, oil price increases are limited, and the United States requires oil producer Chevron to end oil business and exports in Venezuela by May 27. Trump initially asked the avatradescn.company to end the business within 30 days from March 4.

The above two measures avatradescn.combined have relieved some of the pressure on Chevron, and also put more pressure on other Venezuelan oil consumers, although it is not yet certain how the Trump administration will implement the tariff.

Brent crude oil futures closed up 84 cents, or 1.2%, with a settlement price of $73 per barrel; U.S. crude oil futures rose 83 cents, or 1.2%, with a settlement price of $69.11.

The source told Reuters that OPEC+ will likely stick to its plan to increase oil production for the second consecutive month in May. Moreover, negotiations to end the Ukrainian war continue to advance, which may increase Russia's crude oil supply to the global market. These also limit oil price increases.

"The reduction in Venezuela's supply to the global market has brought us a little supply shock," said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOKFinancial. "So, this is definitely a bullish force." Trump said last Friday that he would adopt a flexible attitude on tariffs, and his appointed trade chief plans to consult with Chinese counterparts. Trump said on Monday that he will announce tariffs on cars, aluminum and medicines in the near future.

U.S. and Russian officials held talks in Saudi Arabia on Monday on a broader ceasefire in Ukraine, and Washington's goal also includes a separate Black Sea maritime ceasefire agreement as well as a broader agreement.

Kissler added: Concerns about more Russian oil returning to the world market may be one of the biggest negative factors we see.

Four sources told Reuters that OPEC+ will likely stick to its plan to increase oil production for the second consecutive month in May as oil prices stabilize and the alliance plans to force some member states to reduce production to avatradescn.compensate for past overproduction, four sources told Reuters.

Foreign market

The dollar jumped to a few weeks' highest against the euro and yen on Monday, after data showed U.S. corporate activity rebounded in March and reports that U.S. President Trump will pay upcoming tariffsTake a flexible attitude.

S&P Global's U.S. avatradescn.comprehensive Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) that tracks manufacturing and services rose from 51.6 in February to 53.5 in March. Readings above 50 indicate that private sectors are expanding.

The service industry is the main reason for the rise in avatradescn.comprehensive PMI, partly due to the warmer temperature. The manufacturing industry has fallen into a contraction range after two consecutive months of growth. "Overall, the service industry is a more important part of the U.S. economy, so I think that's good news." The U.S. dollar rose against the yen, the Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg News reported earlier that Trump is likely to exclude a series of industry-specific tariffs when the reciprocal taxes are implemented on April 2.

Trump said on Monday that he will announce tariffs on cars, aluminum and medicines in the near future. "Everyone was initially shocked by the scope and scale of the tariffs, but the market has been more cautious recently."

The US dollar rose 0.82% against the yen New York ended at 150.54 yen, the highest since March 3, which had hit 150.75 yen earlier. The pair follows a trend of rising U.S. Treasury yields, which rose 8.3 basis points on Monday to 4.335%.

The dollar has been under pressure for most of this year, and the market's assumption that Trump will quickly introduce policies that are conducive to growth have turned into concerns about the implementation and ultimate impact of trade tariffs.

The U.S. avatradescn.commodity Futures Trading avatradescn.commission (CFTC) data released last Friday showed speculators turned net bearish against the dollar last week, for the first time since October.

The euro fell 0.09% against the dollar to $1.0804, reaching its lowest since March 7, earlier, of $1.078.

The survey showed that the euro zone's corporate activity grew at the fastest in seven months in March, and was helped by the easing of the long-term downturn in manufacturing, but the growth of the service industry slowed down.

The pound rose slightly by 0.04% against the dollar to $1.292, with British Chancellor Reeves declaring his spring budget later this week.

The Turkish lira fell slightly against the US dollar, reaching about 38 lira. Turkish courts held Istanbul Mayor Imam Oglu awaiting trial on Sunday for corruption charges, triggering the largest protests in Türkiye in more than a decade. Imamoglu is President Erdogan's main political opponent.

The market is also focusing on a potential Black Sea ceasefire agreement, with U.S. and Russian officials holding consultations in Saudi Arabia on Monday.

International News

The US will impose 25% tariffs on countries purchasing Venezuela's energy: Resolutely opposes

On March 24 local time, the Venezuelan Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued an announcement stating that it firmly opposes the US government's imposition of 25 countries that trade oil and gas with Venezuela% of secondary tariffs. The announcement stated that US President Trump's unilateral tariff imposition is a new act of aggression and blatantly violates international trade rules such as the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade. Venezuela will take all appropriate actions in international institutions to safeguard its rights and condemn this new violation of the world economic order.

The talks between the United States, Russia and Riyadh lasted for more than 12 hours were finally over

On the evening of the 24th local time, the talks between the Russian and American delegations in Riyadh in Saudi Arabia ended. Negotiations lasted for more than 12 hours. On the 24th local time, Russian and US delegations held talks in Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia. According to previous news, Russia called the talks "expert-level consultation." Russian President's Press Secretary Peskov said on the 23rd that the two countries will mainly discuss whether the Russian president agrees to restore the Black Sea Food Agreement initiative. Waltz, an assistant to the U.S. President's National Security Affairs, said in an interview with the media on the 23rd that after Trump and Putin spoke to the conflict, the two sides reached a ceasefire agreement against air infrastructure. He said the United States will discuss a maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea so that both sides can resume food and fuel transportation and restart trade in the Black Sea region. Next, the United States will begin discussing the actual frontline ceasefire issue and a broader, permanent peace plan.

Atlanta Fed Governor: Price cuts are expected to only once this year, tariffs hinder the process of inflation falling

Atlanta Fed Governor Raphael Bostic said he now believes that interest rate cuts may only be once this year, not twice, as tariff hikes hinder the process of inflation falling. “I adjusted to one time mainly because I think inflation will be very unstable and not move towards the 2% target significantly and clearly,” Bostic said in an interview in Atlanta on Monday. “Because this is delayed, I think the appropriate policy path will also have to be delayed.” Bostic now expects inflation to return to the Fed’s 2% target sometime in early 2027. This is consistent with the forecast released by the Federal Reserve at its policy meeting last week. Officials were expected to achieve this in September by 2026.

Trump said it would announce additional tariffs on cars, wood and chips in the next few days

On the 24th local time, US President Trump said that he would announce additional tariffs on cars, wood and chips in the next few days. Trump also said that tariff reductions and exemptions from multiple countries were possible. Since Trump entered the White House in January this year, the United States has frequently wielded the "big stick" of tariffs against its major trading partners, causing relevant countries to take countermeasures to safeguard their own interests.

Trump economic adviser downplays the short-term impact of tariffs and emphasizes that structural transformation is the challenge

U.S. President Trump's chairman of the Economic Advisory avatradescn.committeeMiran downplayed the view that tariff hikes would cause short-term damage to the U.S. economy, saying the bigger challenge is how to turn the economy from the public to the private sector. "I don't think tariffs will bring substantial short-term pain," he said, and the short-term pain will avatradescn.come from the economy's shift from government to the private sector. A large proportion of newly created jobs over the past two years came from the public sector, which has caused distortions to the economy and needs to be revised. The tariff situation "is evolving... The president and his team are considering various options."

Trump reiterated his desire to lower the interest rate in the Federal Reserve

U.S. President Trump once again called on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at the cabinet meeting. He said, "Overall, prices are falling, energy prices are falling, and I hope the Fed cuts interest rates, and you will see interest rates drop." Trump posted on social media last week that the Fed would be much better given the possible impact of planned tariffs on the economy.

Models show that the U.S. debt ceiling may be broken as early as mid-July

The bipartisan policy center said that the model released on Monday showed that if Congress does not take action, the U.S. could break the debt ceiling sometime between mid-July and October. The agency also mentioned that while the possibility is small, the so-called "X-day" could rise in early June if tax revenues are lower than expected this year. The U.S. Treasury Department has not yet predicted what day it will happen by Day X, that is, the federal government has no right to perform payment functions. Wall Street estimates that "X Day" will arrive at the earliest at the end of May (BNP Paribas predicts), and may occur at the latest at the end of August or the third quarter (forecast by Bank of America, Barclays, TD Securities and other institutions).

Domestic News

Minister of avatradescn.commerce Wang Wentao met with Apple CEO Cook

On March 24, Minister of avatradescn.commerce Wang Wentao met with Apple CEO Cook. The two sides exchanged on issues such as Apple's business development in China, China-US economic and trade relations, etc. Wang Wentao said that China's economy has shown strong resilience and vitality and has become a hot spot for innovative development. China is unswervingly expanding its opening up to the outside world, providing a fair avatradescn.competitive environment for foreign-funded enterprises, and supporting foreign-funded enterprises to participate in consumption expansion policies such as old-for-new products. Apple is welcome to expand its investment in China, deeply integrate into the Chinese market, and share development opportunities.

In February, the overall sales of Chinese electric vehicle brands in Europe exceeded that of Tesla

Market research firm JATODynamics reported on Monday that in February this year, the overall sales of Chinese electric vehicle brands exceeded that of Tesla - BYD and Polestar achieved a growth of 94% and 84% respectively, with sales exceeding 4,000 and 2,000 vehicles; Xiaopeng delivered more than 1,000 vehicles, and nearly 900 Leapmotor. However, sales of Geely's Volvo and SAIC MG pure electric models fell by 30% and 67% respectively. In February, the overall European auto market fell slightly by 3% to 970,000 vehicles, but the registration volume of pure electric vehicles increased by 25% against the trend.

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