Gold prices return above 3360, the market digests tariffs to ease sentiment, and buying on dips drives

Basic news

On Friday (April 25, Beijing time), spot gold traded around 3361.70, the market absorbed sentiment about ease of tariffs. The weak US dollar and buying on dips boosted gold prices. The market's attention is still focused on the latest progress in trade relations; US crude oil traded around US$62.84 per barrel, oil prices rose slightly on Thursday, investors weighed the weaker US dollar, the possible increase in production, mixed economic news, conflicting US tariff signals, and related news of the Russian-Ukraine war.

Stock market

U.S. stocks closed higher on Thursday, gaining for the third consecutive day, and a strong boost from technology stocks, investors analyzed a series of mixed corporate financial reports and focused on whether there were signs of progress in the tariff deadlock.

The three major U.S. stock indexes all rose sharply, among which the "Seven Technology Heroes" related to artificial intelligence (AI) pushed the Nasdaq outperform, after AI software avatradescn.company ServiceNow released a better-than-expected quarterly results.

The ease of tariffs "is one of the reasons why chip stocks lead the rise," said Paul Nolte, senior wealth consultant and market strategist at Murphy & Sylvest. There are still many questions around tariffs that we really don't have an answer, so many of us are like groping in the dark."

As the first quarter earnings season is fully rolling out, the impact of uncertainty in the trade war on corporate and consumer sentiment is emerging.

In view of the increasing consumer uncertainty, Procter & Gamble, Pepsi, Chipotle and American Airlines Group all lowered or withdrawn their financial forecasts. Procter & Gamble fell 3.7%, Pepsi fell 4.9%, not allThe financial forecasts of avatradescn.companies are all pessimistic.

ServiceNow's profits were better than analysts expected due to strong demand for AI software. The stock price rose 15.5%.

Of the 157 S&P 500 avatradescn.companies that have released their financial reports so far, 74% of the performance exceeded expectations. According to data from the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG), analysts currently believe overall earnings will grow by 8.9% year-on-year, up from the 8.0% forecast on April 1. In terms of data, the orders for U.S. Durable Caixin are stronger than expected, and the number of initial unemployment benefits is in the range, showing economic resilience.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.23% to 40,093.40 points. The S&P 500 rose 2.03% to 5484.77 points. The Nasdaq rose 2.74% to 17,166.04 points.

Gold market

Gold prices rose on Thursday after falling more than 3% on the previous trading day, driven by weakness in the U.S. dollar and dips buying, the market's attention remains focused on the latest developments in trade relations.

Spot gold rose 1.4% to $3333.90 an ounce. Gold hit an all-time high of $3,500.05 on Tuesday on concerns about the U.S. economy. The settlement price of U.S. gold futures rose 1.7% to $3,348.60.

Independent metals trader TaiWong said that the price of gold rose to $3,500, and the rise was a little too strong and needed to be digested by pullbacks. In the next few trading days, gold prices may be sideways, but they are currently in a bull market, so once they fall sharply, there will definitely be a buy-in.

In other markets, stock markets fluctuate and the dollar rebound momentum weakens. The weakening of the dollar and rising risk aversion sentiment often make safe-haven gold more attractive to investors.

Spot silver fell 0.1% to $33.51 per ounce, platinum fell 0.1% to $971.60 per ounce, and palladium rose 0.4% to $947.93 per ounce. Oil market

Oil prices rose slightly on Thursday, with investors weighing the weaker dollar, the possible increase in OPEC+ production, mixed economic news, conflicting U.S. tariff signals and news related to the Russian-Ukrainian war.

Brent crude oil futures rose 0.7%, with a settlement price of $66.55 per barrel. U.S. crude oil futures rose 0.8% to settle at $62.79.

The number of initial unemployment claims in the United States rose slightly last week, suggesting that the labor market remains resilient despite economic turmoil caused by tariffs on imported goods.

As the trade war initiated by US President Trump has led to higher costs, avatradescn.companies have raised prices and lowered financial forecasts, and the trade war has also disturbed global supply chains. Fed officials said in a TV interview that they don’t think there is a need to rush to adjust monetary policy, and they need more information to determine how trade tariffs affect the economy.

Analysts at Gelberand Associates, an energy consulting firm"The market is still trying to understand the data, with the employment data showing the labor market resilience, while the Fed downplayed optimism by saying the unemployment rate may be affected by tariffs." The U.S. fell widely on Thursday, and investors were pessimistic about the lack of any real progress in easing the trade war.

Iranian Foreign Minister Aragzi said on Thursday that he was preparing to travel to Europe to attend talks on Tehran's nuclear project. France said that if Tehran shows seriousness, European powers are ready to have a dialogue.

The successful negotiations with Europe and the United States may push for lifting sanctions on Iran's oil exports. Iran is OPEC's third largest oil producer, second only to Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Reuters reported on Wednesday that several OPEC+ member states will propose to accelerate the increase in oil production for the second consecutive month in June.

Foreign exchange market

The dollar fell across the board on Thursday as investors' sentiment on lack of progress in easing the U.S.-China trade war has emerged again, and the optimism that had emerged the day before has temporarily subsided.

As of Thursday, the US dollar's gains have all been retiring. Matt Weller, head of market research at StoneX, said: "There seems to be a huge Pacific gap in the view of trade. I think that as long as this gap remains, the rise of the dollar may be just a flash in the pan."

The yen leads the rise, with the dollar falling 0.54% intraday to 142.700, but has not yet returned to the level of the 140 level that it broke last week.

The dollar is the biggest victim of Trump's capricious tariff policy, which has fallen 4.8% so far in April, which will be the biggest monthly drop since November 2022. Investors have been shocked by Trump’s series of verbal attacks on Powell’s reluctance to cut interest rates before economic data support.

The London Stock Exchange data shows that its performance against a basket of currencies is approaching its worst level since the 1970s as investors withdraw sharply from the dollar.

TradeNation strategist David Morrison said: "Everyone hopes that the trade dispute caused by the United States will be eased." He added: "The US attitude has eased and called on them to negotiate. But it turns out that a slap can't be slapped."

This month, the Swiss franc reached its highest level in more than a decade due to a large inflow of safe-haven funds, with the dollar falling 0.33% against the Swiss franc to 0.82795 on the same day.

The pound rose 0.55% to $1.3325. British Chancellor Reeves said on Thursday that she is confident that the UK will reach a trade deal with the United States.

International News

South Africa, the rotating chairman of the G20, warned that there was no official avatradescn.communiqué after the meeting.

The central bank governor of South Africa, the rotating chairman of the G20 (G-20), said that global trade tensions have become "so serious". “This tit-for-tat situation means we may not actually talk to each other," South African central bank governor Lesetja Kganyago said after the G-20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meeting in Washington. "Even if there is an olive branch, we may not see it because the situation has become so tense. ”

Canadian Treasury Secretary: Canada needs to fight against US tariffs

On April 24, local time, Canadian Treasury Secretary Shang Pengfei said at a press conference of the G7 Treasury Secretary Meeting held in Washington, USA that Canada needs to fight against US tariffs and US tariffsavatradescn.com policy has affected a large number of Canadian goods. In addition, U.S. tariffs will also trigger inflation and affect global economic growth. Shang Pengfei said that the G7 is still united, but there are tensions around the issue of U.S. tariffs. He also said that he recently interacted with U.S. Treasury Secretary Becent, and after the Canadian federal election, he will release more details of trade negotiations with the United States. .

U.S. Treasury Secretary Becente expects the U.S. and South Korea to reach an understanding agreement on trade next week

After the U.S. and South Korea talks, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Becente said Thursday that the two countries may reach an "understanding agreement" on trade as early as next week. "Our bilateral talks are very successful," Becente told reporters during a meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and the Norwegian Prime Minister in the Oval Office. "We may be progressing faster than I thought. We will discuss technical terms as early as next week and an agreement will be reached as early as next week. ”

The ECB will consider adjusting its monetary policy strategy to more flexibly respond to price shocks

The ECB will consider adjusting its monetary policy strategy to respond more flexibly in the context of the increasingly volatile global environment. People familiar with the matter said that members of the ECB Management avatradescn.committee will have an in-depth discussion on the ongoing strategic assessment for the first time at an informal meeting in Porto, Portugal, from May 6 to 7, when they will discuss the reasons for the change in monetary policy strategy. The people familiar with the matter said that the meeting will consider the two established for the assessment. A report written by a working group and a monetary policy avatradescn.committee, which is avatradescn.composed of senior economists from the European Central Bank and central banks of 20 countries in the euro zone.

Trump said that the U.S. attitude may change when the U.S. attitude may change. On April 24, local time, US President Trump made a series of remarks on the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Trump pointed out that Ukraine and Russia have a willingness to achieve peace, and both sides must join the negotiations. He also revealed that he has set a deadline on the Russian-Ukraine issue, and after the deadline, the U.S. attitude will be different. However, Russian President's Press Secretary PaceKov said on the 23rd that Trump has never specified any date, and the Russian side believes that setting a deadline for the Russian-Ukrainian ceasefire is not appropriate. Speaking about his attitude towards Russia, Trump expressed his dissatisfaction with Russia's attack on Kiev. When talking about whether sanctions were imposed on Russia, Trump said he "did rather answer the question within a week" but if a deal cannot be reached to end the conflict, "things will happen", stressing that the United States will do its best to cooperate with Ukraine. When asked about Ukraine's cedes territory, Trump said it would depend on which cedes. In addition, Trump believes that Russia is not an obstacle to peace, and the United States is currently putting huge pressure on both Russia and Ukraine to promote the peace process.

The German Treasury Secretary is optimistic about reaching a trade agreement with the United States and says that the 90-day tariff buffer period is "feasible".

Germany Finance Minister Joerg Kukies said that it is realistic and feasible to resolve the trade conflict with the United States during the 90-day tariff buffer period implemented by US President Trump. “We think 90 days are feasible,” Kukies said in an interview during the International Monetary Fund (IMF) spring meeting with the World Bank in Washington. He added that the avatradescn.complexity of the trade conflict is not yet impossible to reach a solution within this time frame.

Domestic News

The May Day holiday is expected to increase the traffic of cross-provincial vehicles and new energy vehicles.

The May Day holiday is avatradescn.coming. The Ministry of Transport stated yesterday (24th) that in response to the congestion that may be caused by free highway traffic, a variety of measures will be taken to clear the congestion and ensure smooth flow. During this May Day holiday, the national toll roads with 7 seats and below will be free of charge during the national toll roads from 0:00 on May 1 to 24:00 on May 5. It is estimated that the average daily flow of expressways nationwide during the May Day holiday will be about 62 million vehicles, with cross-provincial traffic and new energy vehicle traffic both increasing. The average daily flow of new energy vehicles accounts for nearly 20% of the total daily flow, a significant increase year-on-year. From 18:00 to 20:00 on April 30, the peak hours before the holiday; on the first day of the holiday on May 1, medium and long-distance travel across provinces will be concentrated, and there will be a peak of congestion from the city from 10 to 12:00; starting from May 4, the peak of return trip will appear, with prominent congestion from the time period, and there will be a peak of congestion from 16 to 18:00.

National Development and Reform avatradescn.commission: Establishing national venture capital guidance and other funds to broaden channels and provide support for financing for technology-based private enterprises

The Party Group of the National Development and Reform avatradescn.commission issued a document pointing out that it will continue to increase its efforts to implement various relief policies. Deepen regular avatradescn.communication and exchanges with private enterprises, make good use of the avatradescn.comprehensive service platform for the development of the private economy, give full play to the role of the inter-ministerial joint meeting system to promote the development and growth of the private economy, improve the closed-loop mechanism for problem collection-handling-feedback-tracking and follow-up visits, strengthen overall coordination and gather working synergy, and help private enterprises solve more difficult problems from point to surface. Deepen the "Xinyi Loan" work, improve the national integrated financing credit service platform network, promote credit information sharing, and improve the quality and efficiency of credit enhancement. Give full play to the role of the working mechanism to support the financing of small and micro enterprises, and increase the scope of small and micro private enterprisesFinancing support. Establish national venture capital guidance and other funds to broaden channels and provide support for financing for technology-based private enterprises.

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