Trump opened a new front for the global trade war, and gold hit a new high and directly hit a 3,000 mark!

On March 14, early trading in Asian market on Friday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 103.94. On Thursday, after Trump's latest threat to impose tariffs on European imports, the US dollar index surged and fell above the 104 mark, and then quickly gave up the gains, eventually closing up 0.251% to 103.84. U.S. Treasury bonds rose under the support of risk aversion sentiment, with U.S. Treasury yields collectively falling, with the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields closed at 4.273%; and the two-year U.S. Treasury yields, which are more sensitive to monetary policy, closed at 3.98%. As the global trade war intensified to stimulate demand for safe-haven, spot gold hit a record high again, approaching the $2,990 mark, and finally closed up 1.9% to $2,988.89 per ounce. Spot silver closed up 2.15% at $33.86 per ounce. International oil prices fell as market trade-offs include macroeconomic concerns about escalating trade tensions and progress in the Russian-Ukrainian ceasefire negotiations. WTI crude oil closed down 1.38% to $66.47 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed down 1.29% to $69.81 per barrel.

Analysis of major currency trends

Dollar Index avatradescn.com Number: As of press time, the US dollar index hovers around 103.94. The U.S. unemployment benefits application report that week showed that the number of initial unemployment benefits was 220,000, lower than the expected 225,000. The number of people who renewed unemployment benefits fell to 1.87 million, down from the forecast of 1.9 million. Producer Price Index in February (PPI) was weaker than expected, with the overall monthly data of 0.0%, expected to be 0.3%, and the core PPI fell by 0.1%. From a year-on-year perspective, the overall PPI fell to 3.2%, lower than the expected 3.3%, while the core PPI fell from 3.6% to 3.4%. The market initially believed that weaker inflation data would be good for the dollar, but the rally quickly reversed as traders interpreted weaker PPI data as signs of weak demand. Technically, if the U.S. dollar index successfully closes above the 104.00 level, it will move towards resistance levels 104.30–104.50.

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovers around 1.0854. The euro/dollar further gave up its recent gains on Thursday, falling about a third of 1% as Europe prepares for long round-trip talks with U.S. President Donald Trump on trade tariffs. The Trump administration began levied a 25% global import tax on all steel and aluminum that crossed the border into the United States, triggering a wave of retaliatory tariffs from most of the (formerly) closest trading partners in the United States. The EU announced a series of tariffs on key, targeted U.S. products, particularly Harley-Davidson motorcycles and U.S. distilled whiskey, which sparked anger from President Trump on Thursday. Technically, if the EUR/USD closes below the 1.0850 level, it will move towards support at 1.0760–1.0775.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.2952. The GBP/USD stirred the chart for the second consecutive day, maintaining stability south of the 1.3000 mark as GBP traders took a breather and watched market headlines widely surpass GBP. The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) business-level inflation eased faster than expected in February. However, as U.S. President Donald Trump continues his campaign, triggering a global trade war between the United States and other countries, markets have never had the opportunity to experience any happiness from the slowdown in inflation data. Despite the ongoing geopolitical headlines, the cable market remains relatively unaffected by tariff negotiations as the UK is silent. Technically, if GBP/USD successfully closes above the 1.2950 level, it will move towards resistance at 1.3050–1.3070.

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

On Friday, gold trading around 2987.34. Gold futures may experience a technical correction after closing at record highs in recent months, causing gold prices to fall slightly. Market analyst Fawad?Lazak Zada ​​said gold prices are increasingly likely to reach or even exceed the $3,000 per ounce in the avatradescn.coming trading days. The analyst added that the dollar continues to be under pressure, and that the decline in U.S. Treasury yields and stock market volatility are a favorable environment for safe-haven assets.

Technical: After breaking through the year-to-date (YTD) high of $2,954 on February 20, the gold price is currently at a historical high of $2,989. The momentum remains unusually bullish, with a higher slope target of the Relative Strength Index (RSI), but there is room for room before turning overbought. That being said, the next resistance level for gold will be $3,000. Breakthroughs the latter will expose the $3,050, and then the $3,100 mark. Conversely, if gold falls below $2950, ​​the next support level will be $2900 instead of $2850. The following support will be the February 28 low of $2832.

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

On Friday, crude oil trading around 66.49. The latest report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) warns that the escalation of global trade war is curbing demand for oil consumption, which has put pressure on international oil prices. The IEA said global oil supply is expected to exceed demand by about 600,000 barrels per day this year, as the trade war weakened the macroeconomic environment. In addition, U.S. stock markets have also fallen due to uncertainty brought about by the trade war.

Technical: President Donald Trump threatens to impose a 200% tariff on wines and other alcoholic beverages from Europe in case the EU taxes on US whiskey. If WTI crude oil closes below $65.00, it will move towards its nearest support level $62.50 – $63.00.

Forex market trading reminder on March 14, 2025

To be determined that the current temporary appropriation bill of the US government expired

To be determined that China holds a meeting between China, Russia and Iran in Beijing on the Iran nuclear issue

To be determined. US President Trump and Russian President Putin have a phone call

Germany February CPI monthly rate final value

U.K.B.C.B.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C. Monthly Output Rate

French CPI Monthly Rate in February

Canada January wholesale sales monthly rate

Open value of the expected inflation rate in the United States in March

Initial value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in March

The next day 01:00 US to March 14 total oil drilling rigs

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