Trump's policy triggered a "big catastrophe"! The US Index recorded "four consecutive shades"

On March 7, early trading in Asian market on Friday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 104.15. On Thursday, the US dollar index closed down for four consecutive trading days as the market was still worried about the growth in the United States, falling below 104 for one time, at a low of 103.74, hitting a new low in the past four months, but recovered some of the lost ground in the late trading and finally closed down 0.12% to 104.2. The yield on U.S. Treasury bonds fell, with the benchmark 10-year bonds closing at 4.276%; the yield on two-year bonds, which is more sensitive to monetary policy, closed at 3.971%. Spot gold fluctuated wide, and it once rushed above $2,920 during the session, then quickly gave up all the gains and fell below the $2,900 mark. However, it recovered most of the lost ground in the late trading and finally closed down 0.28% at $2,911.02 per ounce. Spot silver closed down 0.07% at $32.61 per ounce. The two oils fell into turmoil due to the US tariff war and the OPEC+ plan to increase production. WTI crude oil hovered around $66 and finally closed down 0.13% at $66.02 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed up 0.01% at $69.26 per barrel.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovers around 104.15. The number of people who continue to apply for unemployment benefits has climbed to nearly 1.9 million, and the job market is still facing challenges, despite the number of people who apply for unemployment benefits for the first time falling to 221,000. The European Central Bank lowered the deposit interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.50%, in line with market expectations and maintains a steady policy trend. Technically, if the US dollar index remains at 104.3Below 0 horizontally, it will move towards the next support position in the range 103.20–103.40. It should be noted that RSI is in the oversold area, so the risk of rebound is increasing.

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovers around 1.0789. The euro/dollar fell on Thursday to close at 1.0783, down 0.05%. The euro/dollar attempted to rise for the fourth straight day, but the market was approaching the middle ahead of Friday's key U.S. non-farm employment data (NFP) data. The euro fell sharply from the 1.0850 level on Thursday, ending Fiber's three consecutive gains. EUR/USD had a great week, up 4.6% from the bottom up from Monday's opening price. Technically, if the EUR/USD climbs above the 1.0850 level, it will move towards the nearest resistance level 1.0920–1.0935.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.2881. The GBP/USD fell on Thursday to close at 1.2883, down 0.10%. The pound/dollar faltered on Thursday, ending a three-day stunning move, with the pound rising 2.57% from the bottom up from the beginning of the week. A sharp adjustment in the central bank's expectations for a rate cut meant that the spread of the pound would be much smaller than previous expectations, prompting a severe rebalancing in the money market. Technically, falling below the 1.2850 level will push the GBP/USD to support level 1.2810–1.2830.

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

On Friday, gold trading around 2904.76. Gold stopped its three-day gains as investors took profits ahead of the critical U.S. nonfarm payroll report. The rise in U.S. Treasury yields also make holding this yield-free metal less attractive. The controversial trade policy proposed by U.S. President Donald Trump has sparked uncertainty in financial markets. The tariffs imposed on U.S. allies and rivals have sparked revenge from Canada and China. Meanwhile, Mexico delayed tariffs for a month until April 2 after Trump and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum discussed further improvements to fentanyl and illegal immigration.

Technical: Gold prices consolidated for the second consecutive day, and two crosses were printedStar candles, indicating that neither buyers nor sellers dominate. The momentum depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows that buyers have lost some momentum, but the RSI is in the bullish zone. That is to say, the path with the least resistance tends to move upward. The next resistance for gold will be $2950, ​​followed by an all-time high of $2954. Breakthroughs through the latter may expose the $3,000 mark. On the other hand, daily closing prices below $2,900 may risk an uptrend and open the door for a “healthy” pullback. The first support level for gold will be the February 28 low of $2832, followed by $2800.

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

On Friday, crude oil trading was close to 65.87. WTI prices remain on the defensive near three-year lows as traders fear the impact of tariffs between the United States, Canada and China and OPEC+'s plan to increase production. U.S. President Donald Trump issued an executive order earlier in the day to exempt goods from Canada and Mexico for one month under the North American Trade Agreement (USMCA), which means he imposed a 25% tariff earlier this week. However, tariff uncertainty under the Trump administration continues to weaken WTI prices. The increase in U.S. crude oil inventories has further put pressure on black gold. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly report shows that U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 3.614 million barrels in the week ended February 28, avatradescn.compared with a decrease of 2.332 million barrels the previous week. Market consensus estimates inventory will be reduced by 290,000 barrels.

Technical: Crude oil stabilized after the recent sale. From the overall perspective, OPEC+'s plan to increase oil production continues to put pressure on the oil market. If WTI crude oil stays below the $67.00 level, it will move towards the $62.50 to $63.00 support level.

Forex market trading reminder on March 7, 2025

①To be determined China's foreign exchange reserves for February

②10:00 China's January-February trade account-renminbi denomination

③10:00 The third session of the 14th National People's Congress held a press conference

④15:00 UK������ Group��China's Halifax Seasonal Adjusted Housing Price Index Monthly Rate

⑤15:45 France's January Trade Account

⑥17:30 European Central Bank President and several management avatradescn.committees delivered speeches

⑦18:00 Eurozone's Fourth Quarter GDP Annual Rate Revised

⑧18:00 Eurozone's Fourth Quarterly Adjusted Quarterly Rate Final Value

⑨21:30 Canadian Employment in February

>⑩21:30 US unemployment rate in February

21:30 US non-farm employment population after seasonal adjustment in February

21:30 US average annual salary per hour in February

21:30 US average monthly salary per hour in February

23:15 US Fed Director Bowman participated in the group discussion

23:45 US Fed Williams participated in the group discussion

01:20 the next day, Fed Director Coogler delivered a speech

01:30 on the day, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivered a speech

The next day, 02:00 on the next day, total oil drilling rigs from the United States to March 7

The next day, 02:30 on the next day, US President Trump hosted the cryptocurrency summit

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