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Hello everyone, today Avatrade Aihua Foreign Exchange will bring you "[Avatradescn Official Website]: Trump triggered an astonishing gold rise!". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
The U.S. dollar index fell Thursday, and traders are evaluating how harsh the tariff details that U.S. President Trump will announce next week may be.
Trump announced a 25% tariff on imported cars on Wednesday, which will take effect next week, triggering threats to retaliate by governments from Ottawa to Paris.
Earlier this week, the market was optimistic that Trump might show flexibility in tariff decisions, boosting investors' risk appetite and the trend of the dollar.
However, traders remained cautious until Trump expected to publish details of the “peer-to-peer tariff” policy on April 2.
Eric Theoret, a foreign exchange strategist at Scotiabank, said: "The current market volatility pattern seems to be to first make a worst-case knee-jerk response to any new policy, and then slowly digest it, believing that the situation may not be that bad, and that the final policy content may change because it is all part of a larger-scale negotiation."
Asian Market
Japan Statistics Bureau showed on Friday that the overall consumer price index (CPI) in Tokyo rose 2.9% year-on-year in March, avatradescn.compared with 2.9% last month. Meanwhile, Tokyo's CPI except fresh food and energy was 1.1% in March, avatradescn.compared with 0.8% in February (was 2.2%).
In addition, Tokyo CPI (excluding fresh food) rose 2.4% year-on-year in March, higher than expected 2.2%https://avatradescn.com%, up from 2.2% last month.
European Market
Pierre Wunsch, a member of the ECB Management avatradescn.committee of Belgium, suggested that the suspension of interest rate cuts in at least April should be "on the table" and emphasized how stagflation caused by tariffs constitutes a policy dilemma.
Wunsch warned that tariffs will avatradescn.complicate the ECB’s path forward: “To the extent to which tariffs affect the economy…this will have an impact on our decisions,” he noted.
While downplaying the direct importance of tariff development in April, Wunsch stressed, “This will have an impact in the medium term.
In contrast, Martins Kazaks, a member of the Latvian Management Council, said that if the baseline scenario of the ECB remains unchanged, it can be expected that “the rate will be gradually lowered in the future”.
U.S. market
The number of first-time unemployment claims in the U.S. fell -1k to 224k, avatradescn.compared with 225k. The four-week moving average of initial unemployment claims fell -5k to 224k. k. As of the week ending March 15, the number of people who requested unemployment benefits fell -25k to 1856k. The four-week moving average of those who continued to apply for unemployment benefits rose 2k to 1870k.
It was also released that avatradescn.commodity exports in February rose 4.1% month-on-month to US$178.6B, seasonally adjusted. avatradescn.commodity imports fell -0.2% month-on-month to USD326.5B. The trade difference reported a deficit of USD147.9B, which was greater than the expected USD134.6B.
The annualized GDP growth in the fourth quarter ended at 2.4%. The GDP price index was finally determined to be 2.3%.
>St. Louis Fed Chairman Alberto Musalem warned that while the initial impact of import tariffs may be short-lived, its broader inflationary impact may persist. He stressed that there are concerns that potential inflation could be affected more lastingly than expected, and if so, the Fed may have to consider a tighter policy stance.
While this is not his baseline scenario, Mousalem stressed that the Fed must be vigilant about the second round of the tariff impact.
He noted that if inflation remains above the 2% target and the economy remains strong, then it is "adequate" The monetary stance of degree restriction will need to be maintained for a longer time.
More importantly, “if the labor market remains resilient, the second round of the tariff impact becomes apparent, or if medium- and long-term inflation expectations start to increase real inflation or its sustainability, then moderate restrictive policies will be suitable for long-term use, or stricter policies may be considered,” he said.
Bank’s review summary on March 12 showed that the decision to lower the policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.75% was mainly due to “increased tariff threats and uncertainties.”
Members of the Management avatradescn.committee acknowledged that under normal circumstances, the tax rate would be maintainedIt is suitable at 3%. However, the impact of steel and aluminum tariffs, additional tariff threats, and the unpredictable position of the U.S. government have begun to have a significant impact on business and consumer decision-making. This “significantly undermines the near-term prospects”.
Looking forward, the Bank of Canada highlighted the avatradescn.complexity of the situation and the liquidity of trade tensions. “It is inappropriate to provide guidance on the future path of policy rates,” the minutes noted.
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