Trump announces global reciprocal tariffs, U.S. economic outlook hits

On April 3, early trading in the Asian market on Thursday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 103.17. On Wednesday, the U.S. economic outlook hit the dollar index closed down 0.49% to 103.73 as Trump announced the imposition of global reciprocity tariffs. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.1270%; the two-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 3.8630%. Supported by safe-haven demand and weakening of the dollar, gold prices rose to a record high on Wednesday, with spot gold finally closing up 0.83% at $3,139.31 per ounce. Spot silver finally closed down 1.14% at $33.70 per ounce. After Trump's tariff policy was released, international oil prices plummeted sharply, from rising to falling. WTI crude oil finally closed down 0.58% at $70.65 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed down 1.52% at $73.63 per barrel.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovers around 103.17. The U.S. dollar index fell in trading on Wednesday, hovering around the 104.00 region after President Trump confirmed widespread tariffs on global imports. The initial surge in yields and volatility gave way to a more cautious tone, with details showing a 10% general tariff and an additional 25% tariff on imported cars. Despite the boldness of this announcement, the lack of radical color of market concerns has led to a partial pullback of safe-haven funds. Technically, if the U.S. dollar index remains below the 104.00 level, it will move towards the nearest support level, which is in the 103.20–103.40 range.

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovered around 1.0901. On Wednesday, the euro/dollar currency pair experienced a bullish surge following the Trump administration’s announcement of tariff policies, which were less severe than many investors expected as President Trump issued a large number of tariff threats in the past 72 days. Despite the avatradescn.complexity of the specific content of these tariff proposals, U.S. consumers should be prepared to impose a uniform 10% tariff on all imported goods, up to 25% tariffs on all automobiles and auto parts, and “reciprocal” tariffs at different tax rates based on different countries. Technically, if the euro/dollar successfully closes above the 1.0850 level, it will move towards resistance at 1.0920–1.0935.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD hovered around 1.3045. After the Trump administration announced tariffs as a whole lower than many investors' expectations, GBP/USD won new buys at a new high on Wednesday and six months. Since entering the White House 72 days ago, President Trump's tariff threats have been ongoing, and the details of specific tariff proposals remain avatradescn.complex, but U.S. consumers can expect a uniform tariff of 10% on all imported goods, while an additional 25% on all automobiles and auto parts, and Various “reciprocal” tariffs are charged at different levels in each country. Trump also took this opportunity to remind the world that he still intends to issue more tariff plans for copper, microchips and other basic imported consumer goods that support the entire U.S. economy. Technically, RSI is still in a moderate area, so there is enough room for additional upward momentum in the near term. If the GBP/USD remains above the 1.2950 level, it will go to the next resistance level, which is in the range of 1.3050–1.3070.

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trend

1) Analysis of gold market trend

On Thursday, gold trading around 3163.56. Gold prices continued to rise on Wednesday, with an increase of 0.71%, but with the start of the Asian session on Thursday, gold remained unchanged. U.S. Liberation Day finally arrived. U.S. President Donald Trump announced that the United States will impose a 10% tariff on all imports and a 25% tariff on cars. These tariffs will take effect on April 3.

Technical: The upward trend of gold prices remains unchanged; however, buyers lack the avatradescn.commitment to push prices to record highs, keeping gold trading sideways. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) above the 70 level indicates overbought area. Traders should note that due to the strength of the trend, the most extreme reading can reach 80. Therefore, further rise is expected. If gold remains above $3,100, buyers will maintain control. The continuation of the rally will trigger a breakout of the all-time high of $3149, followed by the $3200 mark. Instead, a break below $3,100 will expose the March 20 high, after which the high becomes the support level of $3,057, followed by the $3,000 mark.

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

On Thursday, crude oil trading around 69.25. International oil prices rose slightly as U.S. President Donald Trump is about to announce a plan for reciprocity. The market is generally concerned that the move will increase investment uncertainty, increase the risks of global trade wars, and may put a suppression on crude oil demand.

Technical: From the daily chart, U.S. crude oil prices have failed to break through the resistance level of $71.83 many times, and may then retreat to the range of $70.19 to $70.50 per barrel. The resistance level was determined as the c-wave 161.8% projection level starting from $66.21. It turns out that this is a stronger resistance than expected. The c-wave starting at $66.21 may have been avatradescn.completed around $71.83 as it may be broken down into five smaller waves. The instant resistance is at $71.42 and may rise to $71.83 if it breaks through that resistance.

Forex market trading reminder on April 3, 2025

①09:45 China's March Caixin Service Industry PMI

②14:30 Switzerland's March CPI monthly rate

③15:50 France's March service industry PMI final value

④15:55 Germany's March service industry PMI final value

⑤16:00 Eurozone's March service industry PMI final value

⑥16:30 UK's March service industry PMI final value

⑦17:00 Eurozone's February PPI Monthly rate

⑧19:30 Number of layoffs for challenger avatradescn.companies in the United States in March

⑨19:30 European Central Bank releases minutes of the March monetary policy meeting

⑩20:30 Number of initial unemployment claims in the week from the United States to March 29

20:30 US February trade account

21:45 US March S&P Global Services PMI final value

22:00 US March ISM non-manufacturing PMI

22:30 US March to March 28 EIA Natural Gas avatradescn.comInventory

00:30 the next dayFederal Reserve Vice Chairman Jeffer delivered a speech

Federal Director Cook delivered a speech

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