"Small non-agricultural" unexpectedly upset, gold took a roller coaster

On March 6, early trading in the Asian market on Thursday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 104.28. On Wednesday, investors are now starting to price the possibility of a full-scale contraction of the U.S. economy and Trump will postpone some auto tariffs. The U.S. dollar index recorded three consecutive negatives and fell below the 105 mark, hitting a new low in nearly four months, and finally closed down 1.15% to 104.33. The euro hit a record high in nearly four months, with a view to hitting its best performance week since November 2022. U.S. Treasury yields continued to rise, with the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields closed at 4.281%; and the two-year U.S. Treasury yields, which are more sensitive to monetary policy, closed at 4.013%. Despite the weakening of the US dollar, investors still seem to be reluctant to make large-scale bets before the non-farm data were released. Spot gold took a roller coaster, and it fell below $2,900 during the session, then quickly recovered all lost ground and rushed to $2,930, and then fell back, eventually closing up 0.05% to $2,919.12 per ounce. Spot silver continued to rise during the day, finally closing up 2.11% at $32.64 per ounce. Trump's trade war cast a shadow on the outlook for crude oil demand, and international oil prices closed negative for four consecutive trading days, plunging to their lowest point in more than three years as OPEC+ signaled to increase supply. WTI crude oil fell nearly 4% during the day and fell to around $65 at one point, finally closing down 2.46% to $66.11 per barrel; Brent crude oil fell below the $70 mark and finally closedIt fell 2.45% to $69.26 per barrel.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovers around 104.28. The US dollar index fell below key levels, hitting its lowest point since November 2024. The U.S. ADP employment report shows that the U.S. private sector has only added 77,000 jobs, down from the expected 140,000. Technically, the U.S. dollar index is trying to close below support level 104.30–104.50. If this attempt is successful, it will move towards the next support level 103.20–103.40.

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovers around 1.0796. The euro/dollar rose last Wednesday and closed at 1.0788, up 1.54%. Because risk sentiment rose after U.S. President Donald Trump turned to his own tariff strategy again. President Trump once again stepped on the brakes of his own trade strategy, threatening to impose severe import taxes on his citizens in order to punish other countries for their stringent contempt of Donald Trump. Technically, if the EUR/USD closes above resistance level 1.0760–1.0715, it will move towards the next resistance level 1.0920–1.0935.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.2898. The pound/dollar rose on Wednesday to close at 1.2895, up 0.79%. The GBP/USD hit the accelerator and traded strongly again on Wednesday, plunging 0.85% again, firmly bullish for the third consecutive trading day. The pound market is recovering steadily after weeks of uneasy risk appetite, pushing the pound/dollar to a 16-week high. Technically, if GBP/USD remains above resistance level 1.2810–1.2830, it will move to the next resistance level 1.2935–1.2950.

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

On Thursday, gold trading around 2917.76. There are speculations that U.S. President Donald Trump may remove some tariffs, at least the auto tariffs related to the USMCA Free Trade Agreement. As the news continues, gold prices have been hovering around the $2,910 mark during North American period. The Federal Reserve released its Beige Book in anticipation of upcoming monetary policy, saying overall economic activity has risen, but prices are higher under Trump's trade policy. On the data side, ADP shows that private recruitment slowed sharply in February avatradescn.compared to January data. At the same time, according to the latest ISM service industry purchasing managers index in February, the avatradescn.company continues to expand healthily. Despite this, concerns about the possibility of inflation acceleration again remain, as PricesPaid, a subcomponent of PMI, jumped above the 60 level, suggesting producers are paying higher prices, which could trigger a second round of inflation.

Technical: Gold prices stagnated on Wednesday after two consecutive bullish days. Nevertheless, the momentum turned upward, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) showing an upward trend in the bullish region. That is to say, the path with the least resistance of Bullion is the continuation of the upward trend. The next resistance for gold is $2950, ​​followed by an all-time high of $2954. Breakthroughs through the latter could expose the $3,000 mark. On the other hand, if the daily closing price is below $2,900, it could put the uptrend at risk and open the door to a “healthy” pullback. That is, the first support level for gold will be the February 28 low of $2832, followed by $2800.

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

On Thursday, crude oil trading around 66.17. International oil prices fell for the fourth consecutive trading day, and the increase in U.S. crude oil inventories exceeded expectations, further exacerbating market pressure. Meanwhile, investors' concerns about OPEC's plan to increase production from April and the United States' increased tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico continue to heat up.

Technical: Crude Oil Tested its annual low as traders reacted to the EIA report, which showed crude oil inventories increased by 3.6 million barrels from the previous week. If WTI oil prices remain below the $67.00 level, it will move towards the next support level of $62.50 to $63.00.

Forex market trading reminder on March 6, 2025

①14:45 Swiss February seasonally adjusted unemployment rate

②15:00 The third session of the 14th National People's Congress held a press conference

③18:00 Eurozone January retail sales monthly rate

④20:30 Number of layoffs by challenger avatradescn.companies in the United States in February

⑤21:15 European Central Bank announced interest rate resolution

⑥21:30 Number of initial unemployment claims in the week from the United States to March 1

⑦21:30 US January trade account

⑧21:45 European Central Bank Governor Lagarde held a press conference

⑨23:00 US Global Supply Chain Pressure Index in February

⑩23:00 US January wholesale sales monthly rate

23:30 US to February 28 EIA natural gas inventory

04:30 the next day

Federal Governor Waller delivered a speech

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