Spot gold hit a new high! US PCE has become the focus, UK GDP has attracted much attention in Europe

On March 28, in the early trading of the May 4th Asian market in Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 104.32. avatradescn.comOn Thursday, the US dollar index maintained a downward trend throughout the day, eventually closing down 0.37% to 104.28 as Trump's tariff policy brought uncertainty prospects to the US economy. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.3660%; the two-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.0020%, which is more sensitive to monetary policy. Although U.S. economic growth in the fourth quarter of last year was faster than previously expected, investors are more worried about Trump's announcement of new car tariffs. Spot gold hit a new high, refreshing its all-time high to $3057.85/ounce, and finally closing up 1.23% to $3056.76/ounce. Spot silver finally closed up 2.31% at $34.40 per ounce. As investors are still evaluating the tightening of crude oil supply and the new US tariffs and their expected impact on the world economy, international oil prices fluctuated narrowly, and WTI crude oil eventually closed slightly down 0.05% at $69.84 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed down 0.96% at $73.30 per barrel.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovers around 104.32. The key U.S. data release this week will be the core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index inflation on Friday. Technically, if the US dollar index falls below 50MA of 103.94square, it will move towards the nearest support level 103.20–103.40.

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovers around 1.0793. The euro/dollar took a breath and ended a six-day downward trend on Thursday, during which the euro fell 2% against the dollar. Tariff concerns remain lingering near the center of investors’ attention, but the market received some brief relief Thursday after U.S. President Donald Trump turned his attention to other matters rather than publishing a new round of tariff statements via social media. Technically, the EUR/USD has gained strong support in the range of 1.0760–1.0775 and is trying to gain additional upward momentum. A breakout of 50MA1.0845 will push the EUR/USD toward resistance at 1.0920–1.0935.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.2947. The GBP/USD found momentum to rise on Thursday, reaching 0.5%, climbing back to above 1.2900. The main price mark of 1.3000 is still out of reach for pound buyers, but the struggle for the downside pullback has begun again. The next batch of key UK data will be the fourth quarter final gross domestic product (GDP) and retail sales updates on Friday. UK GDP growth is expected to be on par with previous data in the fourth quarter of 2024, but retail sales data are expected to shrink slightly in February. Technically, the successful test of resistance level 1.2935–1.2950 will push GBP/USD toward the next resistance level 1.3050–1.3070.

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

On Friday, gold trading around 3061.83. US President Trump suddenly announced an increase of 25% tariffs on imported cars, like dropping an economic bomb on the global market. Allies such as Canada, the EU, and Japan quickly showed a counterattack posture, overseas stock markets fluctuated violently, multinational automakers were in panic, a global trade confrontation officially kicked off, gold once again gained favor from safe-haven funds, spot gold hit a high of US$3,059.35 per ounce on Thursday (March 28), setting a new record high again. Investors are currently waiting for data on U.S. personal consumption spending released on Friday to determine the trajectory of further rate cuts after the Federal Reserve decided to keep the indicator rate unchanged last week.

Technical Area: Gold is currently being sorted above the 3000 mark. From a risk management perspective, buyers may get a better risk-return ratio around 2955, while this level together forms support with the upward trend line. The seller needs to wait for the gold price to fall below the trend line to further fall into the 2832 target. On the 4-hour chart, the gold price fluctuates from 3000-3038, and the fluctuation range is relatively tight. The seller may enter the market near the 3038 resistance and set a stop loss above the resistance level to gain the opportunity for gold prices to fall back to the main trend line. The buyer hopes that the gold price can break through the 3038 resistance to open up space to hit an all-time high.

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

On Friday, crude oil trading was around 69.72. Although short-term resistance levels put pressure on crude oil prices, the ongoing supply threat from U.S. sanctions and disruptions in Venezuela's oil supply indicate that oil prices still have upward potential. However, demand concerns and supply signals from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) limit market confidence. Be cautious in the short term, and it is necessary to see technological breakthroughs and guidance from macro signals. Investors are currently waiting for data on U.S. personal consumption spending released on Friday to determine the trajectory of further rate cuts after the Federal Reserve decided to keep the indicator rate unchanged last week.

Technical: The 100 moving average is 68.24, and the 200 moving average is 67.56. The current price is higher than these two moving averages. It shows that from the medium term, crude oil prices are in a relatively strong state, but we need to pay attention to whether we can obtain support at these moving averages when the price pulls back. On the upward side, the current price is close to the 70.22 resistance level. If it cannot effectively break through, the upward space will be limited and may trigger a pullback. Pay attention to the 70.22, 71.13, 72.73, and 73.87 resistance levels above. On the downside, once the price goes down, these positions will test the bulls' defensive strength, with initial support at 68.67, and the support below is 68.15. If the support is effective, the price is expected to rebound; if it falls below, further downward space may be opened. The MACD indicator shows that the market is weak in the short term and the bears have a slight advantage. However, the difference in indicator values ​​is not large, and long-short conversion may be faster. The RSI indicator shows that there is no obvious one-sided trend in the current market buying and selling power, and the bulls and bears are relatively balanced.

Forex market trading reminder on March 28, 2025

15:00German April Gfk Consumer Confidence Index

15:00English fourth quarter GDP annual rate final value

15:00English January seasonally adjusted avatradescn.commodity trade account

15:00English February seasonally adjusted retail sales monthly rate

15:00English fourth quarter current account

15:45English March CPI monthly rate initial value

16:00Swiss March KOF leading economic indicator

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16:55 The number of unemployed people in Germany after seasonal adjustment in March

16:55 The unemployment rate in Germany after seasonal adjustment in March

18:00 Eurozone March industrial prosperity index

18:00 Eurozone March economic prosperity index

20:30 Canada January GDP monthly rate

20:30 US February core PCE price index annual rate

20:30 US February personal expenditure monthly rate

20:30 US February core PCE price index monthly rate

22:00 US February The final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in March

22:00 The expected final value of the US one-year inflation rate in March

The next day, Fed Director Barr delivered a speech

The next day, 01:00, the total number of oil drilling rigs in the week from the United States to March 28

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