India's Russian oil supply recovered in March, and short-term trend analysis of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on March 12

Global Market Review

1. European and American market trends

The three major stock index futures rose, with Dow futures mainly blue-chip stocks rising by 0.37%; S&P 500 futures rising by 0.56%; and Nasdaq 100 futures mainly technology stocks rising by 0.71%. European stock markets rose, with the German DAX index rising 1.52%; the French CAC40 index rising 1.07%; and the UK FTSE 100 index rising 0.42%.

2. Market news interpretation

India's Russian oil supply recovered in March

① According to five trade sources and shipping data, India's Russian oil imports recovered in March, close to the usual level, after a three-month decline. ② Non-sanctioned ships are delivering goods, while some supplies have been transferred from Türkiye. ③ The recovery of Russian oil supply has eased supply tensions caused by sanctions. ④This change has had a cooling effect on oil prices of its Middle East avatradescn.competitors. ⑤ As the world's third largest oil importer and consumer, India's oil supply stability is of great significance to the global energy market.

U.S. CPI data affects the trend of Treasury bond yields

① Tickmill's Joseph Dahrieh proposed that the upcoming U.S. CPI inflation data may cause U.S. Treasury bond yields to fluctuate in any direction. ② If the CPI data is stronger than expected, it may push up Treasury yields and curb market expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut. ③ On the contrary, if inflation data performs weakly, it may lead to a decline in Treasury yields. ④In addition, Ukraine and RussiaThe possible ceasefire progress between the two is expected to boost the market's risk appetite. ⑤ The Wall Street Journal survey of analysts shows that the overall and core inflation rate in the United States is expected to decline in February. ⑥ According to data, the 10-year Treasury yield fell slightly by 1.5 basis points to 4.272%.

U.S. Treasury maturity premium is low, and the market is neutral

①Benjamin Melman, global chief investment officer of Edmondde Rothschild Asset Management, proposed that the institution has a neutral position on the fixed income market. ② This position is partly due to the low maturity premium in the US Treasury market, while rising uncertainty and excessive stock valuations are also influencing factors. ③ The maturity premium is the additional rate of return required by investors to hold long-term bonds rather than short-term bonds, which reflects investors' risk avatradescn.compensation requirements for long-term bonds. ④ According to data, the 10-year Treasury yield fell by 1.5 basis points to 4.272%, indicating that the market demand for long-term bonds is relatively stable. ⑤In the current market environment, investors may be more inclined to adopt neutral strategies to balance risks and returns.

Lagarde stressed inflation targets and policy responses

① European Central Bank President Lagarde pointed out that although it is impossible to ensure that inflation always reaches 2%, policies must bring it closer to this target. ② She warned that large-scale shocks could make inflation longer and trade differentiation could lead to greater price changes. ③Lagarde stressed that special attention must be paid to anchoring inflation expectations, and trade, defense and climate issues may affect inflation. ④ She said that although prospective guidance cannot be provided, the response function must be clearly stated. ⑤ Lagarde believes that the ECB needs to clarify its capabilities and limitations and formulate policies to move inflation closer to 2% in the medium term. ⑥ She pointed out that the huge impact will lead to faster transmission of inflation and wages need to gradually keep up with the pace of rising prices.

The euro zone bond market is facing a key node

① According to data, euro zone bond yields remained basically flat in the early trading and stabilized after selling on Tuesday. ②However, the market will face many major events in the future, which may cause volatility. ③ The European Central Bank "ECB and Observers" meeting was held in Frankfurt, and Germany and Portugal will release bond supply data. The Portuguese government collapsed a day before in a vote of distrust. ④ The United States will release key inflation data at 20:30 Beijing time. ⑤In addition, US President Trump's steel and aluminum tariff measures have avatradescn.come into effect, and the EU announced retaliatory tariffs that will avatradescn.come into effect in April, which has aroused market concerns. ⑥Tradeweb data shows that the 10-year German Treasury yield fell 0.4 basis points to 2.890%, and the yield rose about 8 basis points on Tuesday.

Goldman Sachs expects US credit spreads to rise sharply due to tariff risks and the White House may tolerate short-term economic weakness.

Goldman Sachs strategists have significantly raised their forecasts on US credit spreads, mentioning tariff risks and signs of the White House willingness to tolerate short-term economic weakness. These strategists now expect that the US investmentThe spread for capital-grade bonds will expand to around 125 basis points in the third quarter, higher than the previously estimated 84 basis points; the spread for high-yield bonds will rise to 440 basis points in the same period, higher than the previously predicted 295 basis points. "The current spread is still too tight," the bank's credit strategist led by LotfiKaroui wrote in a March 11 note. The U.S. investment-grade credit spread expanded to 94 basis points on Tuesday, the highest level since September.

Growing German spending is expected to support the medium-term growth outlook

Laura Cooper, senior macro strategist at Nuveen, said in a research report that increased German spending will lead to an expansion of the deficit, but after years of underinvestment, the increase in Germany's spending is likely to boost economic growth in the medium term. The senior macro strategist said that in the medium term, Germany's prospects are positive, which bodes well for European asset exposure. "It is important that Germany has stronger fiscal capacity to improve its debt levels, with growth momentum enough to offset concerns about fiscal sustainability," she said. "In the medium term, this should help improve Germany's structural outlook, thereby supporting European asset exposure." Germany announced a large-scale long-term spending plan last week.

The South Korean government plans to invest 6.8 trillion won this year to develop 12 strategic technology fields

It is reported that the South Korean government plans to invest 6.8 trillion won in 12 strategic technology fields this year, an increase of 30% over last year. The program aims to foster startups in these areas. Key objectives of the implementation plan include promoting avatradescn.commercialization and business connections, enhancing national strategic technology response systems, and strengthening mission-oriented investment. In addition, 370 billion won will be allocated to the entrepreneurial support program in the strategic technology field. The government aims to identify representative projects in areas such as hydrogen energy and advanced technologies and enhance corporate support by establishing innovation funds.

3. Trends of major currency pairs in the New York Stock Exchange before the New York Stock Exchange

Euro/USD: As of 20:20 Beijing time, the euro/USD fell and is now at 1.0894, a drop of 0.24%. Before New York, the euro-dollar price tested the $1.0900 mark and rebounded strongly in an attempt to resume the bullish trend expected today, noting that the stochastic indicators are gradually gaining positive momentum, while the EMA50 continues to provide positive support for the price.

GBP/USD: As of 20:20 Beijing time, GBP/USD has risen, now at 1.2955, an increase of 0.05%. Before the New York market, GBPUSD prices showed weak trading since the morning, stabilizing above the $1.2925 level, so today's expected bullish trend has not changed depending on the price stabilized above the above level, while its next target is at $1.3000 and extending to $1.3130.

Spot gold: As of 20:20 Beijing time, spot gold fell, now at 2913.57, a drop of 0.07%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, gold prices continued to fluctuate around $2920.00, waiting to break through this level to confirm the continuation of the bull market and gain more profits in the future, paying attention to the stochastic indicators trying to gain positive momentum to support opportunities to achieve the desired breakthrough.

Spot silver: As of 20:20 Beijing time, spot silver rose, now at 33.017, an increase of 0.30%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, silver prices rebounded upward to break above $32.86 and tried to stay above it, strengthening expectations of continued bullish trends intraday and short term, opening the way for new goals of $33.35 and $33.75.

Crude oil market: As of 20:20 Beijing time, U.S. oil rose, now at 67.130, an increase of 1.33%. Before New York, crude oil prices showed a new bullish tendency to test the $67.05 level, as we mentioned this morning, prices need to stay below this level to keep bear trends active, as breaking through this level will drive prices to rebound to $69.05 before any new negative attempts.

4. Institutional Perspective

Bank: The Bank of England is unlikely to signal a faster rate cut at its March meeting

Bank of America analysts said in a report that the Bank of England is unlikely to suggest that the rate cuts will be faster in its next decision on March 20. Bank of America said: "We expect gradual and cautious guidance in the case of increased uncertainty and high data dependence." LSEG data shows that the market expects the Bank of England to maintain interest rates at 4.50% on March 20 at a 92% chance of keeping interest rates unchanged at 4.50% on March 20. Bank of America analysts expect the Bank of England to cut interest rates three more times in 2025 and once in 2026, with the final rate dropping to 3.5%.

Danish Bank: If the US CPI is lower than expected, the interest rate spread between the US and Germany may narrow.

Kristoff of the Danish Bank Research Departmenthttps://avatradescn.comerKjaerLomholt and FilipAndersson said in a report that if the U.S. CPI data released on Wednesday was lower than expected, it would further narrow the yield gap between the U.S. and German Treasury bonds. The CPI data for February will be released at 20:30 Beijing time. A survey of economists showed that the month-on-month increase of CPI in February was expected to be 0.3%, previously 0.5%; the month-on-month increase of core CPI was expected to be 0.3%, previously 0.4%. Data from the London Stock Exchange Group showed that the yield difference between 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds and German Treasury bonds was 135 basis points, avatradescn.compared with 221 basis points at the beginning of the year.

The above content is all about "[Ava Aihua Official Website]: India's Russian oil supply resumes in March, and the short-term trend analysis of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on March 12" was carefully avatradescn.compiled and edited by the Avatrade foreign exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

In fact, responsibility is not helpless, it is not boring, it is as gorgeous as a rainbow. It is this colorful responsibility that has created a better life for us today. I will try my best to organize the article.