Trump confirms that the final "reciprocal tariff" is finalized! The dollar index hovers above 104

On April 2, in the early trading of Asia on Wednesday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 104.25. On Tuesday, the dollar index closed slightly higher 0.02% at 104.20 as the market was waiting and watching for Trump's upcoming reciprocal tariffs. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.1770%; the two-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 3.8870%. Gold prices have fallen due to profit-taking, but are still close to all-time highs. Spot gold finally closed down 0.31% at $3,113.40 per ounce. Spot silver finally closed down 1.14% at $33.70 per ounce. International oil prices fell due to market news that OPEC+ is not expected to change its production increase plan in April. WTI crude oil finally closed down 0.36% at $71.70 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed down 0.29% at $74.45 per barrel.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovers around 104.25. Weaker-than-expected ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index data, drop in job openings and cautious avatradescn.comments add a bleak outlook to the dollar. Despite the slight gain, the technical background remains fragile as traders look forward to further macro drivers later this week. Technically, the US dollar index remains below resistance level 104.30–104.50. A breakout above the 104.50 level will push the US dollar index toward the next resistance level 105.50–105.70.

Euro: As of press time, EUR/USD is hovering around 1.0791. EUR/USD holds at familiar levels on Tuesday, stirring on chart paper near the 1.0800 mark as investors prepare for a long-time threat of “reciprocity” tariff plan by U.S. President Donald Trump, which will be held on Wednesday at 1900 GMT (PM EST https://avatradescn.com4 points) announced. The exact details of President Trump's ever-changing tariff proposal remain vague at best and may change multiple times or even be delayed altogether, as Donald Trump has done on four different occasions since he took office 71 days ago. Technically, successful testing of support level 1.0760–1.0775 will open the way to test the next support level 1.0630–1.0650.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD hovered around 1.2908. GBP/USD was flat on Tuesday, slightly above the 1.2900 mark as investors wait for US President Donald Trump’s long-awaited tariff announcements to be released on Wednesday night. At 1900 GMT on Wednesday, President Trump is expected to announce the “reciprocity” tariff plan he has threatened since taking office on January 20. Technically, if GBP/USD rises above the 1.2950 level, it will go to the next resistance level 1.3050–1.3070.

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

Which gold trading was trading around 3121.83. Gold prices fell on Tuesday as traders settled profits and waited for the U.S. Liberation Day on April 2. President Donald Trump is expected to announce an increase in tariffs to improve the imbalance of the trade deficit. U.S. stock markets reflect market sentiment remains mixed. According to the Washington Post, investors are looking forward to the latest tariffs released by the United States on Wednesday and speculating that these tariffs will be avatradescn.common, possibly up to 20%. Although traders are still uncertain about the extent of tariffs imposed, the rise in gold prices stopped Tuesday.

Technical: The upward trend of gold prices remains unchanged, but the price trend on Tuesday formed a cross-star candlestick, which shows that buyers and sellers lack avatradescn.commitments to open new positions before Trump's announcement. Technical indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicate that gold is overbought, paved the way for the retreat. Nevertheless, if XAU/USD remains above $3,100, it will maintain the buyer's control. A breakout above this level will expose the March 20 high after which the high becomes the $3,057 support level, followed by the $3,000 mark. Conversely, if the rally continues, the first resistance will be an all-time high of $3,149, followed by the $3,200 mark.

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

On Wednesday, crude oil trading was around 70.93. During the trading session in Asia on Wednesday, crude oil trading price was about US$70.93. WTI prices rose slightly after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened Russia with oil tariffs. However, crude oil may have limited upside potential as traders prepare for the reciprocal tariffs that Trump will announce on Wednesday.

Technical: Crude oil is falling as traders make profits from the desktop after the recent rebound. The technology is still bullish. RSI is in a mild area and there is enough room for additional upward momentum in the short term.

Forex market trading reminder on April 2, 2025

①To be determined Domestic refined oil has opened a new round of price adjustment window

②To be determined US President Trump announced import tariff policy

③20:15 US ADP employment in March

④22:00 US February factory order monthly rate

⑤22:30 US to March 28 EIA crude oil inventories

⑥22:30 US to March 28 EIA Cushing crude oil inventories

⑦22:30 US to March 28 EIA strategic oil reserve inventories

⑧The next day, details of US President Trump announced reciprocal tariffs

⑨The next day, 03:45 European Central Bank President Lagarde delivered a speech

⑩The next day, 04:00 US President Trump delivered a speech

The next day, 04:30 US Federal Reserve Director Kugler delivered a speech

The next day, 06:00 RBA Chairman Brock attended the hearing

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