The US dollar index index has a huge negative weekly declined its bullish confidence, and it is difficult to stop short-term selling pressure!

Asian market market review

Last Friday, the slightly inferior non-agricultural data continued to support the Fed's expectations of multiple interest rate cuts this year. The US dollar index fell for five consecutive days, setting a new low for four months. As of now, the US dollar is priced at 103.86.

Non-agricultural-U.S. non-agricultural employment population in February was 151,000, slightly lower than market expectations, and the unemployment rate recorded 4.1%, the highest since November 2024. After the data was released, traders no longer bet on the Fed's interest rate cut in May and are now expected to wait until June to restart interest rate cuts, but the Fed is still expected to cut interest rates by about 75 basis points this year.

Federal Powell: Don't rush to cut interest rates until the impact of Trump's policy is further clarified; the impact of tariffs this time may be different; there will be no overreaction to one or two economic data that are higher or lower than expected. The zero-rate lower limit may no longer be the benchmark situation, and what is important is long-term inflation expectations. Trump: The Fed's vice chairman of regulation will be appointed soon.

U.S. Trade Policy-Trump will reduce the rate of potash fertilizer tax on Canada and Mexico from 25% to 10%. The United States will impose new tariffs on Canadian wood and dairy products. Tariffs will be fully implemented in a reciprocal manner from April 2, and the tariffs may rise over time. US avatradescn.commerce Secretary: India's tariff policy should be lowered; Trump will not be on drug-related tariff issuesReduce efforts.

State of Russia and Ukraine-Russian army said it had entered a large-scale attack in Kursk Prefecture, and the enemy was giving up its position. Trump: I believe Zelensky will sign a resource agreement. The United States has notified its allies that it plans to stop participating in European future military exercises after 2025. Musk said he would not cut off the service to Ukraine's "Starlink" situation. British media said the EU is ready to bring Ukraine into a single market in a peace agreement. Trump: Consider imposing large-scale sanctions and tariffs on Russia until the ceasefire. According to reports, Putin actively responded to Trump's call for a ceasefire for the first time and was willing to agree to a ceasefire with conditions. Other news later reported that the US government was studying easing sanctions on Russia's energy industry.

State in the Middle East - Israel will send a delegation to Qatar on March 10 to advance the Gaza ceasefire negotiations. Hamas calls for an immediate start of the second phase of the ceasefire negotiations. The leader of the Yemeni Houthi organization said on the 7th that if Israel still prevents rescue supplies from entering Gaza in four days, it will resume maritime operations against Israel. Trump: There will be something very interesting in Iran in the next few days. The US urges Iran to negotiate with the United States on the nuclear issue, otherwise it may face military action. Iran's supreme leader Khamenei: Tehran will never accept the demand for cutting Iran's nuclear program.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Besent: The strong dollar policy has not changed; the agreement with Ukraine is still changing; the progress of any future Bitcoin acquisition will be observed.

In the early hours of Sunday, the U.S. Secret Service shot a man with a gun near the White House. Trump was not in the White House at the time.

The leaders of the German CDU/CSU and SPD said that preliminary negotiations to form a coalition government have been avatradescn.completed.

Summary of institutional views

Dutch International Group: 0.3% inflation cannot change the interest rate cut situation, and the important data to measure tariff uncertainty is...

The Federal Reserve recently raised concerns that the inflation slowdown is not as large as expected. The data may continue to reflect this, especially given the evidence that the tariff outlook has led to price increases. "Business surveys show that some avatradescn.companies are preemptively imposing tariffs by raising prices. Food prices have also been rising, while energy prices may further intensify inflation."

Nevertheless, the impact of these data on U.S. interest rate expectations may be limited, as there are growing concerns about Trump's policies, especially the impact of tariffs on the economy. "In a government tightening environment, the market seems to be more concerned about economic growth and the threat of a squeeze if prices do respond to tariffs." The U.S. currency market is currently expecting the Fed to cut interest rates three times this year, at 25 basis points each time. Dutch International Bank believes that "the inflation rate, which is 0.3% month-on-month increase, is unlikely to change this situation." As doubts about the strength of the U.S. economy begin to increase, the initial value of the University of Michigan's March consumer survey released on Friday, March 14 may also beIt is of great significance to measure confidence in the context of tariff uncertainty and government departments’ layoffs.

Morgan Stanley: The dollar sell-off will continue, and the euro and pound long targets will be raised. We expect the dollar index to continue to be sold. The market regards the euro as an increasingly viable "dollar alternative", making the negative impact of the dollar on the United States more sensitive.

We extend our long target for the euro against the dollar from 1.08 to 1.12. For investors, European fiscal news makes the euro a clear and credible investment option outside the US dollar. If the euro is technically overbought against the US dollar, it will increase the risk of a recent correction to the low of 1.0630, but we believe investors will actively buy on dips.

The existence of clearer U.S. dollar alternatives makes the U.S. more vulnerable to and sensitive to the impact of the U.S. shock; slowing U.S. economic data and fiscal consolidation are one of the risks. The strengthening of the euro has boosted other European currencies, and we extend our pound-to-dollar long target to 1.33. Lindsey Bell, chief strategist at AllyInvest, investment firm: The market is volatile, and Powell gave a direction today

Powell brought a sense of peace to the market that has been volatile. He said the economy is in good condition and inflation remains anchored. What Powell did today is to give the market a direction, and the market has always lacked important directions due to the Trump administration's repeated recurrence on tariffs. His calmness and calmness are much better than the Trump administration's tough tone around tariffs, the Ministry of Efficiency and government spending. Investors are looking for something that will give them a better understanding of the situation. Powell’s picture is very clear, the uncertainty of tariffs is real, the market may react violently to the news, but the impact on the economy may be much smaller. The market is more concerned about the economic impact of tariffs rather than less interest rate cuts. Because Powell believes that the economic situation is good, investors find avatradescn.comfort in it.

forexlive analyst Itai Levitan: Subtle changes in the employment report are showing

① The job market is slowing, but it has not collapsed

The report shows 151,000 jobs added, slightly lower than the expected 160,000. This is a modest slowdown, not a significant slowdown. The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.1%, but it is not worrying. However, the downgrade to previous reports on ������ Group�� shows that employment growth is weaker than initially expected. In other words, the economy is still increasing jobs, but not as fast as before.

②The hidden weaknesses of the labor market

Although the overall data does not indicate an economic downturn, some subtle changes suggest that the employment marketThe field may be weakening below the surface. 1. Fewer and fewer people participate in the labor market. A decline in labor force participation means fewer people actively seeking jobs. If people stop searching, they won't count as unemployed even if they don't have a job. 2. Reduced working hours = reduced income. This is an early warning sign of slowing economic activity when avatradescn.companies reduce hours rather than lay off employees. Less jobs mean lower real wages, thus reducing spending power.

③Government jobs are currently stable

A large part of the job growth avatradescn.comes from recruitment from state and local governments, which adds 11,000 jobs. However, the federal government has actually reduced 6,700 jobs. A major problem here is that many state and local government positions are funded by stimulus funds during the COVID-19 era. Now that these funds have been used up, it is uncertain whether they can save these jobs in the future.

④ Will this be the last "strong" employment report in a period of time?

1. The layoffs announced in recent months have not been fully displayed in the data. Layouts usually take time to reflect in official data. Some of the major layoffs announced earlier this year may not appear in the report until the next few months. 2. Recruitment speed in some industries is slowing down. Many industries, including technology, retail and financial services, are reducing hiring. While they are not necessarily actively laying off employees, they are hiring fewer people, which gradually weakens job growth. 3. An important source of new workers—immigration—has slowed down. In the past, the influx of workers has helped offset the economic slowdown, but this trend has changed.

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