The non-agricultural market is slightly inferior, the US dollar index falls, but Powell remains patient!

On March 10, early trading in the Asian market on Monday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 103.65. Last Friday, the slightly inferior non-farm data continued to support the Fed's expectations of multiple interest rate cuts this year. The US dollar index fell for five consecutive days, setting a new low for four months. However, after Powell reiterated that he was not in a hurry to cut interest rates, it finally closed down 0.298% to 103.89, the largest single-week decline since November 2022. The yield on the U.S. Treasury continued to rise after Powell's speech, erasing all the intraday declines. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.301%; the two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to monetary policy, closed at 4.002%. As safe-haven funds inflows and lower than expected non-farm employment growth in February, spot gold stabilized at a high level and finally closed up 0.03% at $2,910.79 per ounce, and the weekly line resumed its positive. Spot silver closed down 0.31% at $32.53 per ounce. Affected by the news headlines of successive bombings, the two oils took a roller coaster. After the U.S. Department of Energy announced plans to prepare for supplementing SPR and Trump considered large-scale sanctions on Russia, WTI crude oil soared 2% to a new day high. Subsequently, Putin was said to have agreed to a conditional truce with Ukraine. WTI crude oil plunged during the session, and the final increase narrowed to 1.18% at $66.86/barrel; Brent crude oil trended similarly, eventually closing up 1.31% at $70.19/barrel.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovers around 103.65. The U.S. dollar index fell to a four-month low last Friday, down 0.22% to 103.905 as weaker employment data strengthened expectations for the Fed's multiple rate cuts. Technically, beautifulThe nearest support level of the Meta Index is in the range of 103.20–103.40. If the U.S. dollar index falls below the 103.20 level, it will move towards the next support level 102.00–102.20.

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovers around 1.0859. The euro/dollar rose last Friday and closed at 1.0833, up 0.45%. The euro/dollar started a positive start this week, amid concerns about a possible slowdown in the U.S. economy. San Francisco Fed Chairman Mary Daly said late Sunday that rising corporate uncertainty could curb demand in the U.S. economy but would not justify changing interest rates. Technically, if the EUR/USD closes above the 1.0850 level, it will move towards the nearest resistance level 1.0920–1.0935.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.2938. The pound/USD rose last Friday to close at 1.2921, up 0.30%. The GBP is supported by expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) cut rates slower than other central banks, including the Federal Reserve. It turns out that this is another factor that contributes to the buying tone of the GBP/USD pair and validates the positive outlook. Without any relevant market mobile economic data release, both in the UK and the US, the US dollar will continue to affect spot prices and allow traders to seize short-term opportunities. Technically, the successful test of resistance level 1.2935–1.2950 will push GBP/USD toward the next resistance level 1.3050–1.3070.

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

On the Asian session on Monday, gold trading around 2915.81. Last week, U.S. President Donald Trump issued an executive order on Thursday to exempt goods from Canada and Mexico two days after implementation under a North American trade agreement called the USMCA. However, U.S. avatradescn.commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said late Sunday that the 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, which was scheduled to take effect on Wednesday, is unlikely to be delayed. Uncertainty surrounding Trump’s tariff policy could promote safe-haven capital flows, which would benefit gold prices in the short term.

Technical: Technically speaking, the market is still in a strong upward trend, but the top of the closing price reversal released in the week of February 28 has stopped its upward momentum. Trading above $2956.31 will offset the potential bearish chart pattern and herald the recovery of the uptrend. Take out $2832.72 to confirm the chart pattern. This could trigger a 2-to-3 week correction with the first target of $2746.58.

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

Weekly avatradescn.com In the Asian session, crude oil trading was close to 66.58. Crude oil prices tried to rebound Friday after a sharp sell-off, but continued supply pressure and geopolitical uncertainty have left the market bearish. Brent crude oil rose slightly after hitting a multi-year low, but the $70-a-barrel resistance remained firm. Market sentiment remains cautious as traders weigh OPEC+ production increases, U.S. tariff disputes and potential sanctions on Russian oil.

Technical: Technically speaking, the market is in a weak position after closing at the 50% bearish side. Both indicators are resistance levels. WTI crude oil is also trading below the 52-week moving average of $71.24. The tone will remain bearish and traders may continue to sell and rebound until the moving average indicator is surpassed.

Forex market trading reminder on March 10, 2025

U.S. President Trump meets with executives of American giants

15:00Germany January seasonally adjusted industrial output monthly rate

15:00Germany January seasonally adjusted trade account

16:00Swiss February consumer confidence index

17:30Eurozone March Sentix Investor Confidence Index

23:00US February New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations

The above content is about "[Ihua Foreign Exchange]: Non-agricultural exchange is slightly inferior, the US dollar index is falling, but Powell is patient!", all the content is carefully avatradescn.compiled and edited by the Avatrade Foreign Exchange editor, I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

Due to the author's limited ability and time constraints, some content in the article still needs to be discussed and studied in depth. Therefore, in the future, the author will conduct extended research and discussion on the following issues: