The performance of US mortgage loan applications is differentiated, analysis of short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on April 2

Global Market Review

1. European and American market conditions

The three major stock index futures fell, with Dow futures mainly blue-chip stocks falling 0.43%; S&P 500 futures falling 0.52%; and Nasdaq 100 futures mainly technology stocks falling 0.65%. European stock markets fell, with the German DAX index falling 1.30%; the French CAC40 index falling 0.68%; and the UK FTSE 100 index falling 0.86%.

2. Market news interpretation

U.S. mortgage loan applications performed differentiated, and interest rates fell slightly

① As of the week ending March 28, mortgage loan applications performed differentiated, with home purchase activities increasing for the fifth consecutive week, while refinancing activities decreased for the third consecutive week. ② The US Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) market avatradescn.comprehensive index fell 1.6% to 243.6. The refinancing index fell 5.6% to 710.4, offsetting the 1.5% increase in the home purchase index, which rose to 158.2. ③The home purchase index has grown by 19.5% since the week of February 21, thanks in part to the start of the spring home purchase season and the decline in interest rates from mid-January highs. avatradescn.compared with the same period last year, the home purchase index increased by 8.7%. ④ By type, the traditional home purchase index rose 2.8% to 202.2, while the government home purchase index fell 1.8% to 98.2. The average home loan scale rose 1.1% month-on-month to $447,500, but is still below the survey high of $460,800 set in early March. ⑤ In terms of refinancing, since most borrowers have already enjoyed mortgage loans with lower interest rates, refinancing applications are not subject to interest rate changes.Very sensitive. Interest rates have been fluctuating narrowly since late February. ⑥ In the refinancing index, the traditional refinancing index fell by 5.2% to 530.7, and the government refinancing index fell by 6.2% to 1649.6. The proportion of refinancing applications in total fell from 40.4% to 38.6%. ⑦ In terms of mortgage loan interest rates, the 30-year fixed interest rate and large-scale loan interest rates both fell by 1 basis point, to 6.70% and 6.76%, respectively, down 21 basis points and 30 basis points respectively avatradescn.compared with the same period last year. ⑧ Since late February, the 30-year fixed interest rate has fluctuated between 6.67% and 6.73%, and the interest rate of large loans has fluctuated between 6.68% and 6.83%. ⑨The government’s home purchase and refinancing applications both declined, resulting in the Federal Housing Administration (FHA)’s share of total applications from 16.5% to 15.8%, and the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA)’s share of the decline from 14.5% to 14.4%. ⑩ Adjustable interest rate mortgages (ARM) rose from 6.3% to 6.5%, although the 5/1 mixed ARM rate rose by 15 basis points to 6.04%, and the spread with the 30-year fixed interest rate and large loan interest rate narrowed to 66 basis points and 72 basis points, respectively.

UBS lowers its 10-year German Treasury yield target

UBS Global Research Analyst Reinout DeBock said in a report that in terms of avatradescn.combined risks, German Treasury yields will fall, especially if the U.S. tariffs on EU imported goods exceed 10%. In view of this view, UBS lowered its target interest rate on its 10-year German Treasury bonds from 2.70% to 2.60%. In this transaction, UBS also lowered its stop loss level from 3.05% to 2.80%. UBS went long on March 14 with a yield of 2.90%, believing that tariff risk was underestimated.

Maersk expects the U.S. economy to continue to grow, but warns of rising uncertainty

① Danish shipping avatradescn.company Maersk said on Wednesday that despite strong U.S. demand, Trump's tariff plan could cast a shadow on the outlook. ②Maersk's global market outlook report points out that US economic growth continues, but geopolitical turmoil increases uncertainty. ③Trump's new tariff plan has disturbed the shipping industry, as the trade war may curb transportation demand. ④Maersk warns that imminent U.S. tariffs could curb global trade flows, and avatradescn.companies are monitoring early signs of slowing global supply chains. ⑤Maersk said that the uncertainty of tariffs has led to a shift in inventory strategies, and some avatradescn.companies accelerate imports and increase storage space. ⑥ The avatradescn.company stressed that the decline in US consumer confidence for four consecutive months is a worrying issue, which may trigger cautious consumption and a ripple effect.

Norwegian Central Bank will not adjust interest rates for the time being, and the Kroner is expectedStay stable

① As expected, the Norwegian central bank kept its policy interest rate unchanged last week. The new interest rate path shows that interest rate cuts are expected to be slower and smaller by the end of 2027. ② The Norwegian Central Bank said that due to rising inflation and higher than expected, premature interest rate cuts may lead to continued rapid price increases. Therefore, the central bank responded to high inflation at the beginning of the year and kept interest rates unchanged. ③ The overall interest rate path is about 25 basis points higher than before. The Norwegian Central Bank believes that there is significant uncertainty in trade conflicts and rising tariffs, and its impact on prices and growth can only be estimated and difficult to predict. ④ Import inflation may rise, but weakening global demand and a stronger Krona may alleviate price pressure. ⑤ Analysts expect Norwegian central bank will not consider interest rate cuts until at least June when it releases a new monetary policy report, which will have more inflation data and economic impact information of trade conflicts. ⑥The Kroner is expected to remain stable in the avatradescn.coming months and defend its gains, possibly even a slight upward trend.

Ukrainian drone attacks have restricted oil exports from the Caspian pipeline

① The Kremlin said on Wednesday that after Ukrainian drone attacked the Caspian oil pipeline infrastructure, Russia imposed restrictions on the Black Sea oil exports of the pipeline. ② After a raid inspection by Russian transport watchdog, the two mooring points at the Black Sea Pier were ordered to close, which handle Kazakhstan oil exports drawn by large U.S. avatradescn.companies Chevron and ExxonMobil.

Italian economic outlook is affected by US tariffs

① The Italian Federation of Industrialists has lowered its economic growth forecast, and it expects Italy's GDP to grow by 0.6% in 2025, only half of the government's official forecast of 1.2%, and also lower than the Federation's estimated growth rate of 0.9% in October. ② The Federation predicts that the GDP growth rate will rebound to 1% in 2026, and Italy's GDP will both increase slightly by 0.7% in 2024 and 2023. ③ Its forecast includes the impact of steel and aluminum tariffs and trade policy uncertainties announced by the United States, but does not reflect the impact of the escalation of the trade war. ④ If the United States imposes a permanent tariff of 25% on all imported goods, the tariffs on China will be raised to 60%, and countries will take retaliatory measures, Italy's GDP growth rate will drop to around 0.2% in 2025 and its economic growth will be around 0.3% in 2026. ⑤Pharmaceuticals, automobiles and other means of transportation and machinery are the industrial fields with the highest dependence on the United States, and the United States is Italy's second largest export market.

The Myanmar earthquake brings new challenges to the Thai economy

① The recent earthquake in Myanmar has brought new difficulties to the Thai economy, and analysts say it may put pressure on Thailand's tourism and real estate industries. ② The earthquake has caused people to worry about the short-term impact of tourism and housing demand. Thailand's economy is already fragile and is slowly recovering from its growth momentum. ③ Some analysts lowered their growth expectations in Thailand, and the slowdown in tourism may exacerbate economic difficulties, which is a key pillar of Thailand's economic growth and employment. ④ According to data from the Thai Hotel Association, the number of tourists visits in the next two weeksIt may fall 10% to 15% or more, with Mitsubishi UFB lowering Thailand's 2025 growth forecast from 2.8% to 2.2%. ⑤ The collapse of skyscrapers under construction in Bangkok may curb activity in the real estate industry, and CGS International economists estimate that the economic impact accounts for about 0.2% of Thailand's GDP. ⑥ Citi analysts said the earthquake could lead to delays in transfers of condominiums, weakening demand for new properties. ⑦ Nomura economists believe that if earthquakes no longer occur, the number of tourists should recover in a V-shaped manner. Economist at OCBC said reconstruction and recovery work may support government spending. ⑧Malayan Bank economists say home buyers' hesitation may be temporary, and the impact of the earthquake may make the Bank of Thailand tend to cut interest rates. ⑨ In addition to the earthquake, Trump's tariff remarks also pose greater concerns for Thailand's economy, which may disrupt Asian trade, and Thailand's economic growth expectations may be further lowered.

3. Trends of major currency pairs in the New York Stock Exchange before the New York Stock Exchange

Euro/USD: As of 20:20 Beijing time, the euro/USD rose, and is now at 1.0801, an increase of 0.08%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the EUR/USD price remained narrowly on the day level, affected by the negative pressure of trading below the 50 candlestick, and was also dominated by the downward correction trend, because the price was traded within the price channel, and after reaching the oversold level, the stochastic indicator showed positive signals.

GBP/USD: As of 20:20 Beijing time, GBP/USD rose, now at 1.2944, an increase of 0.16%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the GBP/USD price fell slightly in recent intraday trading after a trading day marked by side trading. The price was subject to continued negative pressure due to trading below the 50 candle SMA. Although the price was hurt by breaking through the main uptrend line in the short term, it was affected by a series of positive signals from the stochastic indicators, which brought some positive momentum to the price, which helped the price stabilize and resist these negative pressures.

Spot gold: As of 20:20 Beijing time, spot gold rose, now at 3119.43, an increase of 0.17%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, gold prices trade sideways at the intraday level while trying to gather positive momentum to push prices to new record highs, with major uptrends dominating as prices trade along the subtrend line in the short term, with the stochastic signaling after reaching oversold levels.

Spot silver: As of 20:20 Beijing time, spot silver rose, now at 33.733, an increase of 0.20%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, silver prices rose in the latest intraday trading, driven by trading along the upward trend line, and there was continued positive pressure as the trading was above the 50 candlestick, coupled with the positive signal from the stochastic indicators.

Crude oil market: As of 20:20 Beijing time, U.S. oil fell, now at 70.810, a drop of 0.55%. Before New York, U.S. crude oil prices turned from an early decline to a moderate rise in recent intraday trading as it sought a bottom rebound and helped it gather the necessary positive rebound momentum to revise the trend upward in the short term, while stochastic indicators began to form a positive divergence, sending positive signals.

4. Institutional View

Mitsubishi UF: Exchange rate trends show that the market feels "too good" about Trump's tariffs

Mitsubishi UF analyst Derek Halpenny said the trends of the Canadian dollar, as well as risk-sensitive currencies such as the Australian dollar, Norwegian krone and Swedish krone, show that the market is avatradescn.complacent about US tariffs. These currencies performed better than others on Tuesday, which hardly illustrates concerns about tariffs and the rising risk of global trade disruptions. We believe that financial markets underestimate the scale of tariff actions. Risk currencies could fall if the U.S. launches a more aggressive tariff plan than the market fears.

RBC: The tariffs announced by the United States are expected to be avatradescn.comprehensive

RBC Global Asset Management Group expects that in addition to the measures already announced, US President Trump will also announce a avatradescn.comprehensive increase in tariffs. Andrzej Skiba, head of the U.S. fixed income division of asset management group BlueBay, said other countries could follow suit with a wave of retaliatory measures. Even if individual steps can be reversed later by concessions, we believe that most steps will remain the same. The asset management avatradescn.company’s benchmark scenario envisages an average tariff rate of 10%, which is much higher for some countries and industries.

The above content is all about "[Ava Ava Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: The performance of US mortgage loan applications is differentiated, and the short-term trend analysis of spot gold, silver, crude oil, and foreign exchange on April 2" was carefully avatradescn.compiled and edited by the Avatrade Foreign Exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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