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Hello everyone, today Avatrade Aihua Foreign Exchange will bring you "[Aihua Ava Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: Several US financial institutions lay off employees, and the short-term trend analysis of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on March 19." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
Global Market Review
1. European and American market trends
The three major stock index futures rose, with Dow futures mainly blue-chip stocks rising by 0.13%; S&P 500 futures rising by 0.27%; and Nasdaq 100 futures mainly technology stocks rising by 0.34%. European stock markets rose, with the German DAX index falling 0.39%; the French CAC40 index rising 0.40%; and the UK FTSE 100 index falling 0.14%.
2. Market news interpretation
Several US financial institutions lay off employees
Information sources revealed on the 18th that Morgan Stanley Bank in the United States plans to lay off 2,000 employees by the end of this month. Previously, many large U.S. financial institutions announced layoffs. Goldman Sachs Group has accelerated employee performance appraisal, with expected layoffs of 3% to 5%, affecting nearly 1,400 employees. The investment banking department of Bank of America has laid off 150 junior positions. BlackRock announced in January that it would lay off about 1% of its employees.
The US and Russian presidents have a long conversation. The outside world expects to improve. Experts say that the peace process requires long-term efforts.
On the 18th local time, US President Trump spoke with Russian President Putin on the phone. This is the second time after more than a month. Russia said it expressed support for the US proposal that Russia and Ukraine would give up attacking each other's energy infrastructure within 30 days. The White House said that the two sides agreed that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict needs to end in a long-term peace. How did the Russian media view this call? Russian experts said in an interview with a reporter from the Central Taiwan Taiwan that there is no shortcut to achieve peace, and achieving long-term peace cannot be achieved one.It will be achieved within two days, two days or thirty days. At the same time, experts pointed out that a ceasefire is not the ultimate goal, it is just a step towards lasting peace.
Turkey political turmoil may force the central bank to raise interest rates again
① On March 19, ChathamHouse researcher and emerging market economist Timothy Ash pointed out that the Turkish lira plummeted to a record low due to political events on Wednesday, and the Turkish central bank may have to raise interest rates again. ②Turkish official media reported that the mayor of Istanbul was detained by the police and he was President Erdogan's main opponent. ③This incident has caused trouble for the Turkish central bank. The central bank had just begun to cut interest rates after consecutive interest rate hikes. The rate hike measures have effectively suppressed inflation and supported the lira exchange rate. ④Ash said policy makers can currently use foreign exchange reserves to support the lira, but may eventually have to raise interest rates again. ⑤ He stressed that this incident undoubtedly brought new challenges to the Turkish central bank's fight against inflation.
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, and economic forecasts become the focus
① On March 19, the Federal Reserve expects to keep the policy interest rate unchanged in the range of 4.25%-4.50%. ② Policymakers will release new economic forecasts that reveal their views on the Trump administration’s early actions. ③ New policy statements and forecasts will be released at 18:00, and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will hold a press conference in half an hour. ④ Since President Trump took office on January 20, uncertainty among policymakers about the impact of the new administration's plans has increased. ⑤ The initial impact has affected the stock and bond markets, resulting in a decline in confidence and a decrease in government employment. ⑥TSLombard chief American economist Steven Blitz said that Trump's "trade shock" may put the economy on a low growth track and monetary policy will be difficult to offset the impact of tariffs. ⑦ The inflation and unemployment data that the Federal Reserve is concerned about have not shown the significant impact of Trump's plan. The unemployment rate in February was 4.1%, with 151,000 jobs increasing; inflation remains above the 2% target, but is expected to decline this year. ⑧The Fed's new forecast will cover all 19 policymakers' year-end forecasts for growth, unemployment, inflation and interest rates, and the market usually focuses on the median reading. ⑨ Investors expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points twice before the end of the year, reducing the overnight interest rate to the range of 3.75%-4.00%. ⑩ Steve Englander, head of North American macro research at Standard Chartered Bank, said the Fed may focus more on government policies than it is willing to admit.
German fiscal reform helps European economic growth and corporate income
① On March 19, Barclays stock strategists pointed out in their report that Germany's fiscal reform is expected to promote economic growth and corporate income in Germany and the euro zone in 2026 and beyond. ② Barclays raised its 2026 earnings per share growth forecast for the European Stock 600 Index from 4% to 8%, reflecting the process of increasing spending into profits. ③ Although European stock markets have rebounded since the beginning of the year, some of the positive news has been digested by the market, and US trade tariffs are stillMay bring challenges. ④ Nevertheless, the medium-term growth prospects in Europe have improved. ⑤ Barclays raised the end-of-year target of the European Stock 600 index from 545 points to 580 points, while the index fell 0.1% on the day to close at 553.51 points.
The fake breakthrough of South African rand triggered a sudden reversal
① On March 19, the US dollar against the South African rand (USD/ZAR) was expected to achieve two consecutive trading days of gains after falling below the 200-day moving average for the fourth time this month, and may recover some of the lost ground in the decline range from March 12 to 18 (18.4575-18.0025). ② Based on the Fibonacci retracement level from February 28 to March 18 (18.7175-18.0025), the rising targets of the US dollar against the South African rand are 18.2656 (38.2% retracement level) and 18.3600 (50% retracement level) respectively. ③Previously, the US dollar against the South African rand had a possibility of further decline after falling below the 200-day moving average on Monday, but Tuesday's rise and closing price above the 18.1230 moving average triggered a rebound on Wednesday. ④ The 200-day moving average is currently flat, and the technical significance has weakened, but if the closing price on Wednesday is higher than the 10-day moving average of 18.2273, it may enhance the reversal momentum of the US dollar. ⑤ External shocks, uncertainty in South Africa's budget and a slight pullback in gold prices put pressure on the South African rand on Wednesday. ⑥ The 18.00 level and weekly line equilibrium cloud bottom 18.0525 now provides support for the US dollar against the South African rand. ⑦ The closing of this week is crucial because the weekly hammer-shaped candlestick chart is being formed, and the long-term kinetic energy indicators also show signals supporting reversals.
The Danish economy remains balanced in uncertain times
① On March 19, 2025, the National Bank of Denmark stated that the fundamentals of the Denmark economy are balanced and are expected to achieve good growth, sustained high employment and low and stable inflation in the next few years. ②Danish economic growth will rely more on the domestic economy, and the activities of large Danish multinational avatradescn.companies overseas will also contribute to growth. ③Denmark National Bank President Christian Kettel Thomsen pointed out that Denmark's economic growth is expected to be 3.6% this year, including the development of Denmark's overseas production and the reopening of the Tyra oil field. If these two factors are excluded, the expected growth rate is 1.4%. ④Thomsen mentioned that despite the positive economic outlook of Denmark, challenges such as trade conflicts and increased defense spending may affect the economy. If global trade conflicts or tariff barriers intensify, it will have a significant impact on international trade. ⑤ Denmark and Europe's defense spending has increased significantly, which may put pressure on economic production capacity. If the production capacity pressure rises significantly, it should be alleviated through fiscal measures. ⑥ National Bank of Denmark expects that Denmark's HICP inflation rate will be 2.0avatradescn.com% this year,It will be 1.7% in 2026 and 2027; GDP growth is expected to be 3.6%, 2.3% and 2.0% respectively.
The bidding for the second batch of reserve rice of the Japanese government was launched on the 26th
The Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries announced on March 19 that the second batch of bids aimed at the release of government reserve rice will be held from the 26th to the 28th. Including the first batch of unwinning bids, the additional 70,000 tons of rice will be sold to merchants and put into the market from mid-April. The first batch of rice bids were implemented from March 10 to 12, equivalent to 94.2% of the total 142,000 tons won the bid.
The president of the Japan Automobile Industry Association said that U.S. tariffs may lead avatradescn.companies to adjust production
① The head of a Japanese auto industry lobby group warned on Wednesday that U.S. President Trump's plan to start tariffs on April 2 could force automakers and suppliers to make major adjustments to production plans. Masashi Katayama, president of the Japan Automobile Industry Association, said at a press conference, "For us, it is natural to avoid tariffs, but if it is difficult to achieve due to timing, we hope to start discussing what measures can be taken by the public and private sectors to deal with this situation. This is our next plan, and we are discussing this issue";
② The Japan Automobile Association has been lobbying the Japanese government about Trump's tariff threats. In the end, Japanese Minister of Economic and Industry, Ryoji Muto failed to obtain any guarantees from Washington about Japan's exemption from tariffs. Katayama Masaru said that any adjustments made by manufacturers to their production plans may vary from avatradescn.company to product due to U.S. tariffs, but he did not elaborate on it. Katayama's remarks are the latest signs of challenges Japanese automakers and suppliers face in adapting to the new tariffs that the U.S. may impose. In response, Honda has decided to make the next-generation Civic hybrid in Indiana, not Mexico, to avoid tariffs that one of its best-selling models may face, people familiar with the matter said earlier this month.
3. Trends of major currency pairs in the New York Stock Exchange before the New York Stock Exchange
Euro/USD: As of 20:20 Beijing time, the euro/USD fell and is now at 1.0915, a drop of 0.27%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, under the influence of multiple factors such as economic data, monetary policy, geopolitics and trade, the exchange rate may remain volatile in the short term. If new economic data are released in the future and perform well, or new trends in the central bank's monetary policy and changes in the geopolitical situation, the euro-USD exchange rate may have a directional breakthrough. Investors need to pay close attention to the release of various economic data, central bank policy trends and changes in geopolitical situations, and timely adjust their judgments on the exchange rate trend of the euro against the US dollar.
GBP/USD: As of 20:20 Beijing time, GBP/USD fell, now at 1.2979, a drop of 0.17%. New York City MarketPreviously, under the influence of multiple factors such as economic data, monetary policy, geopolitics and trade, the exchange rate may remain volatile in the short term. If new economic data are released in the future and perform well, or new trends in the central bank's monetary policy and changes in the geopolitical situation, the pound sterling exchange rate against the US dollar may have a directional breakthrough. Investors need to pay close attention to the release of various economic data, central bank policy trends and changes in geopolitical situations, and timely adjust their judgments on the exchange rate trend of the pound against the US dollar.
Spot gold: As of 20:20 Beijing time, spot gold rose, now at 3038.15, an increase of 0.14%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the gold market continued to rise strongly on March 19, 2025, driven by multiple factors, but investors need to avatradescn.comprehensively consider technical indicators, Fed policy trends, and market sentiment, carefully judge the gold price trend, and reasonably adjust their investment strategies.
Spot silver: As of 20:20 Beijing time, spot silver fell, now at 33.826, a drop of 0.49%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, silver prices are expected to benefit from factors such as global green energy transformation and technological progress. As an important direction for future energy development, the photovoltaic industry will continue to grow. At the same time, with the adjustment of the global monetary system, the status of silver as a value-preserving asset may further be highlighted. However, long-term price trends also face some uncertainties, such as the emergence of new technologies that may replace the application of silver in certain fields, or major structural changes in the global economy. When investors invest in silver for a long time, they need to avatradescn.comprehensively consider various factors such as macroeconomics, industry development and technological innovation to reasonably allocate assets.
Crude oil market: As of 20:20 Beijing time, U.S. oil fell, now at 66.600, a drop of 0.21%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, judging from the current market situation, international crude oil prices may continue to have a weak fluctuation pattern in the short term. The dual pressures of expectations of oversupply and slowing global economic growth have put oil prices in a big way. However, geopolitical risks and the uncertainty of OPEC+ production cut policy have added variables to the trend of oil prices. Oil prices may rebound if geopolitical tensions intensify or OPEC+ adjusts its production cut strategy.
4. Institutional View
Institutional: The Federal Reserve may have one or two interest rate cuts this year
FederatedHermDeborah Cunningham, chief investment officer for global liquidity markets, said in a report that the Fed is expected to cut interest rates one or two times by the end of this year. Cunningham said the next rate cut in the Federal Reserve could be in May, and a second rate cut will be made near the end of the year if necessary. "This is avatradescn.completely different from what happened after the meeting last September," she said. "It reflects ongoing inflation and consumer resilience."
Institution: The US PC market will achieve moderate growth of 2% in 2025, and trade policy fluctuations bring challenges. Data shows that thanks to the strong push of the avatradescn.commercial market, in the fourth quarter of 2024, US PC (excluding tablets) shipments increased by 6% year-on-year to 17.7 million units. Looking ahead, the U.S. PC market is expected to maintain moderate growth, but faces challenges brought about by trade policy fluctuations, which may lead to higher prices in consumer and avatradescn.commercial markets. It is expected that the increase in total U.S. PC shipments will be slightly less than 2% in 2025 and 2026, with shipments between 70 and 72 million units.
The above content is about "[Ava Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: Many financial institutions in the United States lay off employees, and the short-term trend analysis of spot gold, silver, crude oil, and foreign exchange on March 19" was carefully avatradescn.compiled and edited by the Avatrade Foreign Exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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