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Hello everyone, today Avatrade Aihua Foreign Exchange will bring you "[Aihua Ava Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: The global market has fallen again, and gold is unstoppable and breaking through 3300". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
April 16, the European market was intraday during Wednesday, after a slight rebound on Tuesday, the US dollar (USD) faced new selling pressure on Wednesday as markets evaluated the latest news about the trade war. March retail sales and industrial production data will appear in the U.S. Economic Calendar. In addition, the Bank of Canada (BoC) will announce monetary policy decisions. Finally, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will give a speech later in the United States.
Bloomberg reported Tuesday evening that U.S. President Donald Trump launched an investigation into the need to impose tariffs on key minerals, the latest move to escalate the trade war in key sectors of the global economy. Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal quoted people familiar with the matter as saying that the Trump administration plans to use ongoing tariff negotiations to put pressure on U.S. trading partners to limit deals with China. After these developments, the market seems to have taken a cautious stance. As of press time, U.S. stock index futures fell 0.6% to 2%, while the U.S. dollar index fell more than 0.5% to 99.55 on the day.
Basic Forex Market:
The Office for National Statistics reported earlier on Wednesday that the annual inflation rate measured by changes in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell slightly from 2.8% in February to 2.6% in March. During the same period, the core CPI rose by 3.4%, in line with expectations. The GBP/USD largely ignores these figures, with the last trading above the highest level since October 1.3250.
In the Statistics Canada report, the annual CPI rate in MarchUp 2.3%, while market expectations were 2.6%, the USD/Canada rose about 0.6% on Tuesday. Later in the day, the Bank of Canada is expected to keep its policy interest rate unchanged at 2.75%. Before the Bank of Canada incident, the USD/CAD traded in a negative area of just below 1.3950.
Euro/USD reversed its direction during Wednesday's Asian trading session and rose above 1.1350 after falling more than 0.5% on Tuesday. The European Statistics Office will release a final correction to the March inflation data, and the European Central Bank will announce a policy decision on Thursday.
BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said earlier on Wednesday that the central bank may need to take policy action if U.S. tariffs damage the economy. The U.S. dollar/yen fell sharply in the mid-week, with trading approaching a month-long low of 142.05 hit last week.
Data from China earlier in the day showed that GDP grew at an annual growth rate of 5.4% in the first quarter. The reading was on par with the previous quarter's growth rate, higher than market expectations of 5.1%. After a fifth consecutive day of closing gains, the AUD/USD remained near 0.6350 on Wednesday, in a consolidation phase. During Thursday's Asian session, market participants will closely monitor Australia's employment data.
Bulle market fundamentals:
Crude oil prices fell on Wednesday. Brent crude oil fell 1.1% to $63.99 a barrel; U.S. WTI crude oil also fell 1.1% to $60.65 a barrel.
Under multiple uncertainties, gold was unstoppable, with spot gold rising 2%, setting a new record of $3,317. ANZ raised its year-end target price of gold to $3,600 on Wednesday, believing that safe-haven buying in the market has not really started yet and gold still has room for upward.
Analysis of major currency trends:
Euro: The intraday bias of the euro/dollar remains neutral at present. More consolidation may be seen below 1.1472, and deeper callbacks cannot be ruled out. But the downside space should be turned into support by the 1.1145 resistance level to bring another rebound. On the plus side, breaking through 1.1472 will target the 161.8% forecast of 1.0358 to 1.0953, from 1.0731 to 1.1694.
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