US banking regulation may tighten, analysis of short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on March 24

Global Market Review

1. European and American market trends

The three major stock index futures rose, with Dow futures mainly blue-chip stocks rising by 0.85%; S&P 500 futures rose by 1.08%; and Nasdaq 100 futures mainly technology stocks rose by 1.29%. European stock markets rose, with the German DAX index rising 0.52%; the French CAC40 index rising 0.21%; and the UK FTSE 100 index rising 0.22%.

2. Market news interpretation

The US banking industry may be tightened, and the Federal Reserve has become the focus

① According to foreign media reports, US Treasury Secretary Bescent plans to strengthen control over US banking regulators, including the Federal Reserve. ② People familiar with the matter revealed that the Ministry of Finance began to draft suggestions to streamline these regulatory agencies after it determined that there was no hope of merger between the Monetary Supervision Agency and the Federal Deposit Insurance avatradescn.company. avatradescn.com③Bester has said that he will require more control over the rules set by the banking regulators to reduce rule restrictions, which may involve the Fed's rulemaking. ④ Although Trump has said he will not remove Fed Chairman Powell, the president's pressure on Fed interest rate decisions is well known.

Wildfires ravages South Korea's government announced three special disaster areas

On the 24th local time, the South Korean Ministry of Administration and Security announced that Ulsan Guangdi City Uttarakus and Gyeongsangbuk-do YishouThe three areas of the county and Hadong-gun, Gyeongsang-do are particularly disaster areas. The South Korean government announced that Sancheong-gun, Gyeongsang-do was a particularly disaster area on the 22nd of this month. After being declared a special disaster area, all government departments will provide avatradescn.comprehensive support to the affected areas and victims in accordance with relevant laws. On the 24th, a large wildfire in Yisheng-jung, Gyeongsang-bet dou had been burning for three days. On that day, due to strong winds, the fire had spread to the neighboring city of Andong. As of 12:00 local time on the 24th, the area affected by wildfires has expanded to 7,516 hectares, and the fire line is 133.9 kilometers long. According to the Korean Forestry Department, as of now, the overburning area of ​​several large wildfire areas such as Sancheong County, Gyeongsang-do, Yishou County, Ulsan-Juju County, etc., has exceeded 8,700 hectares, and more than 2,700 residents have been evacuated.

European Central Bank officials declined to avatradescn.comment on the April rate cut

① On March 24, 2025, European Central Bank (ECB) official Makhloof said he would not avatradescn.comment on the April rate cut. ② He pointed out that things are currently moving in the right direction and deflation policy is working. ③Makhlouf said that he is currently in an extremely uncertain period and is not very worried about the specific time to achieve the 2% inflation target. ④ He also said he was still cautious about the change from the current policy stance.

Greece's current account surplus narrowed in January

①In January 2025, Greece's current account surplus fell from 1.8 billion euros in the same period last year to 1.02 billion euros. ② The deficit in goods expanded from 2.66 billion euros to 2.91 billion euros, with imports increasing by 4.8%, exceeding the growth rate of 1.8%. ③ The surplus of service trade fell from 453 million euros to 252 million euros, mainly due to the deterioration of other service projects, and tourism revenue and expenditure also fell slightly. ④ The initial income surplus dropped from 464 million euros to 400 million euros, reflecting a decrease in net interest, dividends and profit income. ⑤ The secondary income surplus fell from 3.54 billion euros to 3.27 billion euros, as the government showed net payments rather than net income, and other economic sectors (excluding government) also decreased.

The growth of UK business activity hit a six-month high

① In March 2025, the UK's avatradescn.comprehensive purchasing managers index (PMI) rose to 52.0 from 50.5 in February, exceeding market expectations of 50.3. ②This data shows that overall private sector activity has only achieved moderate growth, but has reached its highest level since September 2024. ③This growth is mainly due to the strongest expansion of the service industry since August 2024. ④In contrast, manufacturing output has declined for the fifth consecutive month, and the decline has been the largest since October 2023.

The Kremlin responds to Trump's remarks and the Russian-Ukrainian issue

① On March 24, 2025, the Kremlin stated that Russia and the United States have a avatradescn.common will in promoting a peaceful settlement in Ukraine, and Russia hopes to move towards reconciliation. ② The Kremlin also said that there are still many details to discuss the solution to the Russian-Ukrainian problem.Discussion is still in a avatradescn.complicated stage. ③In the US-Russian negotiations held in Saudi Arabia, the Black Sea Initiative is one of the important agendas, which aims to ensure the safety of Black Sea shipping. ④ The Kremlin pointed out that most of the Black Sea Initiative has not been implemented yet, which is also one of the key points of the negotiations on March 24.

Eurozone's corporate activity accelerated in March

①Reuters March 24th news, the growth rate of corporate activity in the euro zone in March was the fastest in seven months, and the long-term downturn in manufacturing has eased, but the growth of the service industry has slowed down. ② The initial value of the S&P Global HCOB avatradescn.comprehensive Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in the euro zone rose to 50.4 from 50.2 in February, the highest since August, but is still lower than the 50.8 forecast in Reuters survey. ③ The service industry PMI fell from 50.6 last month to 50.4, lower than the 51.0 forecast in the Reuters survey; the manufacturing industry PMI index rose from 47.6 in February to 48.7, a record high of more than two years, higher than the 48.2 forecast in the Reuters survey. ④ The sub-index measuring factory output jumped from 48.9 to 50.7, a record high since May 2022. ⑤Cyrus dela Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg avatradescn.commercial Bank, said that with the arrival of spring, the manufacturing industry may see the first resurgence.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore may relax its policy due to weak core CPI

① Jester Koh, assistant economist at UOB, said that Singapore's core CPI data was weak in February and the Monetary Authority of Singapore may relax its monetary policy next month. ②Koh pointed out that year-on-year data of multiple key CPI categories, including miscellaneous goods and services, fell in February, and a slowdown in inflation is a avatradescn.common phenomenon. ③UABN expects that the Monetary Authority of Singapore may reduce the slope of the SGD nominal effective exchange rate policy range. ④ However, the Monetary Authority of Singapore may also choose to maintain the nominal effective exchange rate of the SGD and let it fall within the existing range parameters, which may be driven by the market's expectations for further relaxation of policy.

The avatradescn.commercial activities of the German private sector accelerated.

① On March 24, Reuters reported that the growth rate of avatradescn.commercial activities of the German private sector in March hit the fastest in ten months, and manufacturing production achieved its first growth in the past two years. ② The initial value of HCOB, avatradescn.compiled by S&P Global, in March, rose to 50.9 from 50.4 in February, higher than the dividing line of 50.0, and Reuters estimates it to 51.0. ③Cyrus dela Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg avatradescn.commercial Bank, said that economic growth was optimistic in the first quarter, avatradescn.comprehensive PMI continued to expand, and fiscal stimulus may start a more sustainable recovery. ④ The initial value of the manufacturing PMI rose from 46.5 to 48.3, exceeding the expected 47.0, and the initial value of the service PMI fell from 51.1 to 50.2, which is still in the growth range. ⑤ Surveys show that inflationary pressures eased, and the growth rate of input costs and output prices was the slowest since October last year.

U.S. Treasury yield fluctuations and stagflation risks

①United Bank of Belgium pointed out that the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds are in EuropeThe trading session in the continent rose slightly in the early trading session, consistent with the euro zone bond yield trend. ②Tradeweb data shows that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 3.5 basis points, with the latest 4.288%. ③Early, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell tried to send a reassuring message about the impact of tariffs, but U.S. Treasury yields rebounded quickly after a mid-term correction last week. ④ Analysts in Belgium United Bank said the key question is whether this kind of goodwill neglect can reassure bond investors, and market concerns about the risk of stagflation still exist.

Iranian Foreign Minister says that the U.S. changes its policy as a prerequisite for negotiations. The United States threatens to "completely dismantle" the Iranian nuclear program.

U.S. President Trump recently wrote a letter to Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei to propose negotiations, but Khamenei has publicly expressed his refusal to negotiate with the United States because the United States "is intended to deceive Iran." The Iranian Foreign Minister said on the 23rd that the change of the US policy is the prerequisite for negotiations. Iranian Foreign Minister Aragic said on March 23 local time that Iran's refusal to negotiate with the United States is based on history, experience and precedent, not because of stubbornness. Aragzi stressed that under the current circumstances, it is no longer possible for Iran to negotiate with the United States unless "something changes." Aragic further explained that the form and text of the avatradescn.comprehensive agreement on Iran's nuclear issue cannot be restored at present, and Iran's nuclear situation has made great progress, so it cannot return to the framework stipulated in the Iran nuclear agreement. However, the agreement can still become the basis and model of negotiations.

3. Trends of major currency pairs in the New York Stock Exchange before the New York Stock Exchange

Euro/USD: As of 20:20 Beijing time, the euro/USD rose, and is now at 1.0825, an increase of 0.11%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, after retesting the resistance of $1.0860, the EUR/USD price fell slightly during the session, rebounding and cutting some of its early gains, while releasing oversold saturation in the stochastic indicators as the downward correction wave dominates in the short-term.

GBP/USD: As of 20:20 Beijing time, GBP/USD rose, now at 1.2946, an increase of 0.24%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the GBP/USD price fell at the intraday level, but was hurt by the rising wedge pattern in the short term. Negative pressure continued as trading below the 50 candlestick.

Spot gold: As of 20:20 Beijing time, spot gold rose, now at 3025.29, an increase of 0.07%. Before New York, gold prices rose slightly in recent intraday trading, while moving along the second uptrend line in the short term as prices are supported by trades above the 50 candlestick, but selling pressure remains strong and limited.

Spot silver: As of 20:20 Beijing time, spot silver rose, now at 33.143, an increase of 0.43%. Before New York, silver prices rose at the recent intraday level as it attempted to regain some of its recent losses, while also venting oversold saturation in the stochastic indicators, with positive signals appearing.

Crude oil market: As of 20:20 Beijing time, U.S. oil rose, now at 68.75, an increase of 0.69%. Before New York, U.S. crude oil prices expanded their gains in the latest intraday trading and confirmed a breakthrough of $68.00 key resistance as prices traded along the trend line, with upward correction trends dominant in the short term and continued to be supported as the trade is above the 50-candle SMA.

4. Institutional view

Dutch International: The budget becomes the "trigger for fate" of the pound, which will cause the pound to fall

Dutch International Group analyst Francesco? Pesolle said in a report that the pound faces a risk of falling if the UK's budget released on Wednesday disappoints the market. He noted that the expected spending cuts should be sufficient to meet UK fiscal rules. However, in the case of "extremely limited fiscal operational space", any mistake that leads to a negative reaction to the UK Treasury bond, or a sharp decline in UK economic growth expectations, may impact the pound.

Morgan Stanley: Increased the expected supply of British bonds, which is expected to account for nearly 40% of short-term bonds

Morgan Stanley analyst Fabio? In a report, Barsanin said the UK Debt Management Office is expected to announce in a spring statement on Wednesday that bond supply will increase to about £305 billion ($394 billion) in fiscal 2025/2026. Basaning said the focus will be on whether supply is biased towards long-term or short-term bond maturity. Morgan Stanley is expected to be biased towards short-term bonds, with short-term issuances accounting for 36.1% of the total supply and medium-term bond issuances accounting for 32.8% of the total supply. Basaning said that long-term bond supply may account for 14.4%.

The above content is all about "[Ava Ava Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: US banking supervision may be tightened, and the short-term trend analysis of spot gold, silver, crude oil, and foreign exchange on March 24" was carefully avatradescn.compiled and edited by the Avatrade Foreign Exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

Share, it is as simple as a gust of wind that can bring refreshment, and as pure as a flower that can bring fragrance. The dusty heart gradually opens, I understandI got to share, sharing is actually so simple.