ECB cut interest rates by 25 basis points as scheduled, Trump continues to clamor for removal of Powell

On April 18, early trading in the Asian market on Thursday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 99.36. On Thursday, the US dollar index stabilized and fluctuated above the 99 mark, eventually closing up 0.18% to 99.44. U.S. Treasury yields rebounded, with the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields closed at 4.330%; and the two-year U.S. Treasury yields, which are more sensitive to monetary policy, closed at 3.809%. Perhaps because some investors locked in profits before the long holiday, spot gold fell below the $3,300 mark during the session, but then quickly recovered some of the lost ground and finally closed down 0.44% to 3327.55avatradescn.comUSD/oz. Spot silver closed down 0.64% at $32.53 per ounce. Thanks to the possibility of a trade agreement between the United States and the EU, and the new sanctions imposed by the United States to curb Iran's oil exports continue to intensify supply concerns, the two oils continued to rise, WTI crude oil rose more than 2% during the day, and once rushed to $64 during the US session, finally closing up 2.43% to $63.68/barrel; Brent crude oil closed up 2.47% to $66.93/barrel.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovers around 99.36. As the United States frequently changes its tariff policies, the market has shaken its economic stability and growth expectations, and the US dollar fell against major currencies for the fourth consecutive week. Swiss franc, euro and JapanThe dollar average rose by more than 5% against the US dollar, and the Swiss franc rose by 8% in just 10 days, setting a new ten-year high. Although the Fed has not yet sent out a signal of interest rate cuts, funds are accelerating "de-Americanization", and institutions warn that this trend may continue to suppress the performance of the dollar. Technically, if the U.S. dollar index successfully returns above the 99.50 level, it will move towards the nearest resistance range of 100.20–100.40.

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovers around 1.1373. Concerns about the impact of tariff economy continue to drag the dollar down against the euro. Traders will closely monitor progress in U.S. trade talks. Due to Good Friday, trading volumes may be reduced. The European Central Bank cut interest rates for the third time on Thursday, lowering major interest rates to 2.25% in response to slowing economic growth and tariffs from U.S. President Donald Trump. European Central Bank President Christina Lagarde said at a press conference that U.S. tariffs on EU goods have risen from an average of 3% to 13%, which has hurt the European economic outlook. Technically, if the EUR/USD successfully closes below the 1.1350 level, it will move towards the next support level 1.1275–1.1290.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3283. UK economic data shows growth is increasing and wages remain strong. Meanwhile, inflation data suggests that the Bank of England (BoE) may reduce borrowing costs. With light trading volume, GBP/USD may continue to fluctuate trading. The UK market is closed on Friday and Monday to extend the Easter holiday. Technically, breaking through the 1.3250 level opens the way to test the nearest resistance level, which is within the range of 1.3300–1.3320.

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

On Friday, gold trading around 3327.55. The dollar weakened as tensions between China and the United States increased, gold prices continued a record-breaking gain for the third time this week. These tensions have increased the appeal to safe-haven assets such as gold. The escalation of the trade war has turned market sentiment to pessimism, and US President Trump ordered an investigation into rare earth imports to impose tariffs to further escalate the dispute with China.

Technical: The upward trend of gold prices still exists, buyHome focuses on the $3350 level. Breaking through this level will expose the $3400 target, followed by key psychological levels such as $3450 and $3500. Conversely, if gold/USD falls below $3300, the first support will be the April 16 low of $3229, followed by the $3200 level.

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

On Friday, crude oil trading was around 63.68. International oil prices have surged sharply by more than $1 as U.S. energy secretary Chris Wright said the U.S. could cut off Iran's crude oil exports across the board to force Iran to concessions on its nuclear program. On Friday, China announced a 125% tariff on U.S. products starting Saturday, far higher than the previously announced 84%. The decision avatradescn.comes after Trump raised tariffs on China to 145% on Thursday.

Technical: If WTI crude oil successfully closes above $65.00, it will move towards the next resistance level $67.00 – $67.50.

Forex market trading reminder on April 18, 2025

To be determined, the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting was held

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