The Bay Area bond issuance plan is progressing steadily, and the short-term trend analysis of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on April 21

Global Market Review

1. European and American market conditions

The three major stock index futures fell, with Dow futures mainly blue-chip stocks falling 0.91%; S&P 500 futures falling 1.02%; and Nasdaq 100 futures mainly technology stocks falling 1.10%. The German DAX index fell 0.49%, the UK FTSE 100 index rose slightly, the French CAC40 index fell 0.60%, and the European Stoke 50 index fell 0.63%.

2. Market news interpretation

Gulf bond issuance plans are progressing steadily

1. According to sources, Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund (PIF) plans to raise $1.5 billion to $2 billion through issuance of Islamic bonds (sukuk) in the next few weeks. Although the market fluctuates due to Trump's tariff remarks, the fund still plans to promote bond issuance.

2. Dubai Ports (ADPorts) also plans to raise $2 billion in the next few weeks, while renewable energy avatradescn.company Masdar plans to raise $1 billion by issuing green bonds, but the relevant plans have not been finalized.

3. State-owned enterprises in Saudi Arabia and the UAE have provided funding for overseas acquisitions through bond issuance in recent years to diversify their economy. However, recent turmoil in the bond market has led to higher borrowing costs in issuance.

4. Despite the market fluctuations, the market still has a certain demand for bond issuance. Zeina Rizk, co-head of fixed income at Amwar Capital Partners, saidThe bond issuance plan can still be promoted if the market remains relatively stable.

5. Saudi Arabia Bank has played an important role in financing large projects such as NEOM, Qiddiya and Red Sea projects, which require hundreds of billions of dollars in funding. Fitch expects Saudi banks to grow credit in 2025 from 12% to 14%, and loan growth will continue to outperform deposit growth.

The Russian Ministry of Economic Affairs lowered its forecast for Brent crude oil in 2025 by nearly 17%

Russian International Telecommunications News Agency reported on April 2https://avatradescn.comEarly on the 1st, the Russian Ministry of Economic Affairs had lowered its forecast for Brent crude oil in 2025 by nearly 17% avatradescn.compared with September last year, from US$81.7 per barrel to US$68 per barrel. The Russian Ministry of Economic Affairs also predicts that the price of Ural crude oil produced by Russia will fall to US$56 per barrel this year, far lower than the Russian government's expected price of US$69.7 per barrel as the basis of the 2025 fiscal budget. "We think this is a pretty conservative estimate." International News Agency quoted an official from the Russian Ministry of Economic Affairs as saying. According to Reuters, Ural crude oil prices are crucial to Russia's fiscal budget, as oil and gas revenue accounts for one-third of Russia's budget revenue.

The Japanese Prime Minister expressed concerns about the inconsistency in the U.S. trade policy

1. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said that Japan has no plan to abolish the trade agreement reached with the United States in 2019, but is concerned about the inconsistency between the content of the agreement and Trump's recent actions.

2. Shigeru Ishiba emphasized that Japan will not return to the origin or abandon the agreement, but it is necessary to point out the problems between the 2019 trade agreement and Trump's tariff policy.

3. The agreement signed in 2019 canceled or lowered tariffs on some products, including reducing Japan's tariffs on American agricultural products, but did not explicitly protect Japanese automakers.

4. At that time, Trump and Shinzo Abe reached a consensus not to impose additional tariffs on Japanese cars and promised measures to avoid violations of the spirit of the agreement in a joint statement.

5. Japanese Minister for Economic Regeneration Ryo Akazawa visited Washington last week and asked the United States to revisit tariff policies, including imposing 25% tariffs on foreign cars.

6. The two countries plan to hold another trade talks by the end of this month to resolve related issues.

Iran said negotiations need to be "extremely cautious" how the United States and Iran will bridge many differences next

On the afternoon of April 19 local time, the United States and Iran ended a four-hour second round of indirect negotiations on the Iran nuclear issue in Rome, the Italian capital. Iranian Foreign Minister Aragic called the negotiations "constructive". The Associated Press quoted a senior U.S. official as saying that negotiations have made "very good progress"", however, the United States has not released official news about the negotiations. It is reported that both sides agreed to hold the third round of indirect talks on the 26th. It was followed by the first round of indirect talks between the United States and Iran on April 12 in Muscat, the capital of Oman. This is the first formal negotiations between the United States and Iran since the United States unilaterally withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal in May 2018. So far, neither side has disclosed much information about the two rounds of negotiations.

Japanese ultra-long-term government bonds attract record overseas capital inflows boosted by demand for safe-haven.

As US tariff measures stimulate demand for safe-haven, Japan's ultra-long-term government bonds recorded a record net inflow of foreign funds last month, highlighting its attractiveness as a safe-haven asset. According to the latest data released by the Japan Securities Association on Monday, global investors bought 2.18 trillion yen in March (approximately US$15.5 billion) Japan's 10-year Treasury bonds hit a record high. The total net purchase of all-term Treasury bonds reached 6.03 trillion yen, the second highest level since record in 2004.

3. Major currency pairs before the New York Stock Exchange

Euro/USD: As of 20:22 Beijing time, the Euro/USD rose and is now at 1.1548, an increase of 1.40%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, in recent trading, the Euro-USD price continued its bullish track at the intraday level, and stabilized above the resistance of 1.1470 under the leadership of the short-term major bullish trend, and traded along the secondary trend line on a short-term basis. It was noted that after reaching the overbought level, negative overlap signals began to appear on (RSI), which may reduce its upcoming returns.

GBP/USD: As of 20:22 Beijing time, GBP/USD rose, now at 1.3396, an increase of 0.80%. Before the New York market, the price of GBPUSD rose significantly in recent intraday trading, breaking through the current resistance of 1.3290, consolidating its gains in major bullish trends and small and large short-term fluctuations.

Spot gold: As of 20:22 Beijing time, spot gold rose, now at 3402.71, up 2.27%. Before the New York Time, gold prices continued to rise in recent intraday trading, breaking through $3,375, with a dominant bullish trend. In the short term, accompanied by a sharp and slightly bullish trend, supported by (RSI) positive signals, although it reached the overbought zone.

Spot silver: As of 20:22 Beijing time, spot silver rose, now at 32.933, up 1.29%. Before the New York Time, silver pricesOn the last trading day, attacking key resistance at $32.90, bullish correction trend dominated on a short-term basis, but we noticed that (RSI) began to show negative overlap conditions after reaching extreme overbought levels, which could be a barrier to temporary breaking through resistance.

Crude oil market: As of 20:22 Beijing time, U.S. oil fell, now at 62.470, a drop of 2.39%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, crude oil prices stayed in the downside in the last trade at the intraday level, trying to obtain positive momentum that could help it recover and rise again to reach a bullish correction bias line on a short-term basis, except (RSI) reaching an oversold level avatradescn.compared to the price action, as a signal to start forming a positive divergence, which may support the positive scenario.

4. Institutional view

Institutional: US policy may intensify global "de-dollarization" Investors turn to European and Asian assets

Analysts believe that the previous decline of the US dollar index is mainly driven by the decline in the US economic growth rate and the possibility of an economic recession. The sharp decline of the index recently was further affected by investors' confidence in the US dollar and the outflow of funds from the United States. Some media published an article saying that the US trade policy has changed repeatedly and the world has begun to question the role of the US dollar as the world's reserve currency. Deutsche Bank recently warned that the US government's policy decisions may lead to intensification of global "de-dollarization" and market participants are reevaluating the attractiveness of the US dollar as the world's reserve currency. TD Securities said that as the U.S. growth advantage over the rest of the world disappears, more and more investors are turning to assets in some markets in Europe and Asia.

The above content is about "[Ihua Forex]: The bond issuance plan in the Bay Area is progressing steadily. Analysis of the short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on April 21" is carefully avatradescn.compiled and edited by the Avatrade Forex editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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