The latest remarks of the US Department of Energy may suppress oil prices, and gold prices may open the market above 3220. Tariff policy "180-degree turn"

Basic news

On Monday (April 14, Beijing time), spot gold trading was around 3220.22. The gold price broke through the $3200 mark last Friday to a record high of $3245.26. Investors flocked to gold to risk aversion due to the weakening of the dollar and the escalation of the trade war. U.S. crude oil traded around $61.25 per barrel, oil prices rose last Friday after U.S. Energy Secretary Wright said that the U.S. could block Iran's oil exports as part of President Trump's plan to put pressure on Tehran's nuclear project, but the U.S. Department of Energy said on Sunday that under the administration of President Trump, average oil prices will fall in the next four years.

Stock Market

U.S. Wall Street stocks closed sharply higher last Friday, with large banks kicking off the first quarter's earnings season, and investors ending a week of drastic fluctuations due to US President Trump's multi-line trade war.

The three major U.S. stock indexes all closed sharply after Boston Fed Chairman Collins ensured that the Fed was ready to maintain the normal operation of financial markets if necessary.

The three major stock indexes rose weekly. The stock market was violently warped last week, hit by the suspension of European avatradescn.commodity tariffs and the escalation of the trade war. One sign of volatility: The gap between the S&P 500's high and low points this week was the largest since the end of March 2020, when it was mostly globalThe district is under lockdown on the new crown epidemic.

The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit their biggest weekly percentage gains since November 2023, while the Nasdaq hit its biggest weekly percentage gains since November 2022.

AXSInvestments CEO Greg Bassuk said: "Investors are looking for some positive signs in this tug-of-war, hoping that the uncertainty that really plagued the market will fade. Uncertainty and volatility are new arguments for investors," he added. "More volatility will avatradescn.come in the future, and last week's roller coaster market may be just a sign of future trends.

The trade war caused sharp intraday fluctuations in the market. Data showed that U.S. consumers' recent inflation expectations rose to the highest since 1981. The first quarter earnings season started a solid start. JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo all had better-than-expected profits, but the three major banks warned of the trade dispute that could lead to a slowdown, curbing market enthusiasm for the banking industry.

Analysts, according to data from the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG), The S&P 500 index avatradescn.component avatradescn.companies were expected to grow 8.0% in the first three months of the year, with a forecast of 12.2% forecast for the initial quarter.

Economic data further proves that inflation continues to cool down, with the U.S. Department of Labor reporting that the March Producer Price Index (PPI) unexpectedly fell by 0.4% month-on-month. However, another report showed that consumer confidence was further deteriorating. One year inflation expectations rose to 6.7% the highest since 1981.

New York Fed President Williams said the U.S. economy has not entered high inflation and low During the period of growth, and the Federal Reserve will take action to curb "stagflation".

The 11 major sectors of the S&P 500 closed higher, with the materials and technology sectors rising the most.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.56% to 40212.71 points; the S&P 500 rose 1.81% to 5363.36 points; the Nasdaq rose 2.06% to 16724.46 points.

Gold market

Gold prices broke through the $3,200 mark on Friday. Investors flocked to gold to hedge their recession as the weakening dollar and the escalation of the trade war sparked concerns about a recession.

Spot gold rose nearly 2%, hitting a record high of $3,245.26 earlier in the session. Gold prices rose more than 6% last week. U.S. gold futures rose 2.1% to close at $3,244.6.

Nitesh Shah, avatradescn.commodity strategist at WisdomTree, said, "In this world stirred by the Trump trade war, gold is clearly seen as the most popular safe-haven asset." The dollar has depreciated and U.S. Treasury bonds have been sold off sharply as confidence in the United States as a reliable trading partner has weakened. "

The central bank buying, Fed rate cut expectations, geopolitical instability and surge in investor inflows into gold ETFs also supported goldThis year's uptrend.

U.S. monthly producer prices fell unexpectedly by 0.4% in March, but import tariffs are expected to drive inflation higher in the avatradescn.coming months.

Traders are now betting that the Fed will resume rate cuts in June and see a rate cut of about 90 basis points by the end of 2025.

Spot silver rose 3.2% to $32.18 per ounce; platinum fell 0.2% to $936.36. Palladium rose 0.7% to $914.87.

Oil market

Brent crude and U.S. crude climbed more than $1 last Friday after U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the United States could block Iran's oil exports as part of President Trump's plan to put pressure on the Tehran nuclear project.

Brent crude oil futures closed at $64.76 per barrel, up 2.26%. U.S. crude oil closed at $61.50 a barrel, up 2.38%. "Strict enforcement of restrictions on Iran's crude oil exports will reduce global supply," said Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates. "The avatradescn.comments from Wright provided a boost to oil prices after volatility this week as U.S. President Trump's new tariff regime forced traders to reassess the geopolitical risks facing the crude oil market.

Trump suspended heavy tariffs on dozens of other trading partners last week, but a long-term dispute between the world's two largest economies could reduce global trade volume and disrupt trade routes, dragging global economic growth and reducing demand for oil.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) cut its global economic growth forecast last Thursday and warned that tariffs could deal a heavy blow to oil prices. It lowered its oil demand forecasts for the U.S. and globally this year and next year.

The U.S. Department of Energy said on Sunday that under the administration of US President Trump, average oil prices will fall in the next four years. The United States and Saudi Arabia are expected to achieve long-term cooperation in Saudi Arabia's development of civil nuclear industry, and will release more details on nuclear cooperation (with Saudi Arabia) later this year.

Foreign exchange market

The dollar weakened against major currencies last Friday because of repeated repeated swaying investors' confidence in the dollar as a safe haven. The dollar fell to its lowest level in a decade against the Swiss franc and the dollar against the euro hit a three-year low.

Elevated trade tensions have exacerbated the sharp drop in global stock markets and even hit safe-haven U.S. Treasury bonds, with the benchmark 10-year bond yield hitting its biggest weekly gain since 2001.

On Wall Street, the indicators S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq rose after falling early in the session, with the global trade war last week ups and downs.

Brad Bechtel, global head of foreign exchange at Jefferies, said the US dollarPart of the weakness is due to the perception that the particularity of the U.S. economy is waning -- the possibility of a recession is imminent, and the shift from the dollar as a safe-haven asset to the Japanese yen and Swiss francs. Data on Friday showed U.S. consumer confidence deteriorated sharply in April due to uneasiness about trade tensions, while 12-month inflation expectations soared to their highest levels since 1981.

The dollar fell 0.71% against the Swiss franc to 0.81795, expanding the decline in the previous trading day when the dollar fell to its lowest level since January 2015. The dollar is expected to hit its biggest weekly decline since November 2022.

The US dollar fell 0.24% against the yen to 144.05 yen, which had previously hit its lowest level since September 2024. Gold soared, breaking through $3,200 per ounce, a new high, partly supported by weakness in the U.S. dollar.

ECB President Lagarde said last Friday that the ECB is ready to deploy its tools to maintain financial stability and has a good track record of developing tools to deal with turmoil if necessary.

The euro rose 0.85% to $1.12,970, after hitting its highest level since February 2022. The euro is expected to record its biggest weekly gain since the beginning of last month.

The euro also rose 0.27% against the pound, while the pound rose 0.67% against the US dollar, to $1.30,540.

The dollar index, which measures the dollar's exchange rate against a basket of currencies, fell more than 1% to 99.01 last Friday, the lowest point since April 2022. The index hit its biggest weekly decline since the beginning of last month.

International News

The US exempts "reciprocal tariffs" for some goods Analysts: Tariff policy "turned 180 degrees"

The US Customs and Border Protection announced on the evening of the 11th that the federal government has agreed to exempt the so-called "reciprocal tariffs" for smartphones, avatradescn.computers, chips and other electronic products. Documents released by the Customs and Border Protection show that the products are excluded from the so-called "reciprocal tariffs" imposed by the government on trading partners. The documents show that the exempted products are applicable to electronic products entering the United States after April 5, and "peer-to-peer tariffs" that have been paid can be sought. Bloomberg reported that the measure may alleviate the price increase pressure faced by American consumers to a certain extent, while benefiting electronics giants including Apple and Samsung Electronics. Financial analyst Hussein Kubessi pointed out that this marks a "180-degree turn" in the US government in tariff policies.

The important Japanese Liberal Democratic Party official said Japan does not intend to sell U.S. bonds to resist tariffs

Onori Onodera, the head of the Liberal Democratic Party policy leader who leads Japan's ruling coalition, said on Sunday that in negotiations scheduled by the Japanese and American governments on April 17, Japan does not intend to use its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds as a negotiation tool to avatradescn.combat U.S. tariffs. Onodera Gonori said on Sunday: "As allies, we will not deliberately pick up U.S. Treasury bonds.Taking action and causing market chaos is definitely not a good idea. "Last week's pullback in U.S. bonds soared longer-term Treasury yields to the highest level since the pandemic in 2020, deepening losses on U.S. bonds that should be a haven for financial turmoil. Some investors speculate that global reserve regulators may be reassessing their positions in U.S. bonds given the impact of Trump's trade policy. Onode says Japan should raise U.S. tariff issues with the World Trade Organization.

The British government takes urgent action to take over British Steel

The British government decides to take over British Steel and keep its steel blast furnaces running. It is reported that once the steel furnace at the British Steel avatradescn.company's Skenthorpe plant is shut down, the UK will become the only one in the G7 that cannot utilize iron ore, coke and other raw materials. Countries that produce native steel. According to the BBC, the Steel Industry (Special Measures) Act was passed on the 12th, and it took about six and a half hours in total. British steel avatradescn.companies were nationalized and would become the largest government bailout since several banks were taken over by the government in 2008. Under the bill, steel avatradescn.companies or managers who do not avatradescn.comply with government orders will be fined or two years in prison. Maintaining the UK's steel industry has become a strategic focus of the government, and the government has allocated £2.5 billion to support the industry.

Some sanctions against Russia will be extended by one year

According to the US Federal Register website on April 12, local time, US President Trump has signed a The executive order stated that "in accordance with the National Emergency Act, the national emergency declared by Executive Order No. 14024 for one year will be implemented. This is equivalent to extending a series of sanctions against Russia introduced by former President Biden for one year. It is understood that on April 15, 2021, then President Biden signed Executive Order No. 14024 in accordance with the US International Emergency Economic Powers Act to declare a national emergency to deal with the so-called "abnormal and special threats posed by the Russian Federation government's 'specific harmful foreign activities' to the US national security, foreign policy and economy" and announced relevant sanctions. On March 8, 2022, Biden issued Executive Order No. 14066 to expand the national emergency declared by Executive Order No. 14024 The scope of application is to add sanctions on the Russian energy industry. On August 20, 2021, March 11, 2022, April 6, 2022 and December 22, 2023, Biden also issued Executive Orders No. 14039, 14068, 14071 and 14114, taking additional measures to the national emergency declared by Executive Order No. 14024, and further adding and refined sanctions measures.

German Chancellor Candidate: U.S. policy increases the risk of financial crisis avatradescn.coming ahead of schedule

According to the German Business Daily on the 12th local time, German Union Chancellor candidate Mertz believes that the financial crisis will definitely happen, but the specific time and inducement are not clear.US President Trump's policies increase the risk of the next financial crisis avatradescn.coming early. In this regard, Europe must make feasible response plans.

The White House said that the United States and Iran agreed to meet again on the 19th

On the 12th local time, the White House said that the direct avatradescn.communication between U.S. Special Envoy for the Middle East issue of Witkov and Iran on the same day was a "step toward achieving mutually beneficial results", and the two sides agreed to meet again on the 19th. Witkov stressed to Iranian Foreign Minister Aragic that he had received instructions from Trump to resolve the differences between the two countries through dialogue and diplomacy as much as possible. The White House said the discussion with Iran was very positive and constructive.

Domestic News

People's Bank of China: RMB deposits increased by 12.99 trillion yuan in the first quarter

The People's Bank of China released the March 2025 financial statistics report. At the end of March, the balance of deposits in domestic and foreign currencies was 322.11 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.9% year-on-year. The balance of RMB deposits at the end of the month was 315.22 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.7% year-on-year. RMB deposits increased by 12.99 trillion yuan in the first quarter. Among them, household deposits increased by 9.22 trillion yuan, non-financial enterprises increased by 1.74 trillion yuan, fiscal deposits increased by 819 billion yuan, and non-banking financial institutions increased by 309 billion yuan. At the end of March, the balance of foreign currency deposits was US$959.8 billion, an increase of 15.3% year-on-year. Foreign currency deposits increased by US$106.9 billion in the first quarter.

The People's Bank of China: RMB loans increased by 9.78 trillion yuan in the first quarter

The People's Bank of China: RMB loans increased by 9.78 trillion yuan in the first quarter. By department, household loans increased by 1.04 trillion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 160.3 billion yuan, medium- and long-term loans increased by 883.2 billion yuan; loans to enterprises (institutions) institutions increased by 8.66 trillion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 3.51 trillion yuan, medium- and long-term loans increased by 5.58 trillion yuan, bill financing decreased by 544.2 billion yuan; loans to non-banking financial institutions decreased by 86.6 billion yuan.

The People's Bank of China: The cumulative increase in social financing scale in the first quarter was 15.18 trillion yuan, 2.37 trillion yuan more than the same period last year

The data released by the central bank showed that preliminary statistics showed that the cumulative increase in social financing scale in the first quarter of 2025 was 15.18 trillion yuan, 2.37 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. Among them, RMB loans issued to the real economy increased by 9.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 586.2 billion yuan year-on-year; foreign currency loans issued to the real economy decreased by 96.7 billion yuan, an increase of 249 billion yuan year-on-year; entrusted loans increased by 5.5 billion yuan, an increase of 105 billion yuan year-on-year; trust loans increased by 53.1 billion yuan, an increase of 145.2 billion yuan year-on-year; undiscounted bank acceptance bills increased by 530 billion yuan, an increase of 20.2 billion yuan year-on-year; corporate bonds net financing of 525.1 billion yuan, an increase of 472.9 billion yuan year-on-year; government bonds net financing of 3.87 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.52 trillion yuan year-on-year; non-financial enterprises domestic stock financing of 96.2 billion yuan, an increase of 19 years-on-year;900 million yuan.

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