Tension in the Middle East boosts oil prices, multiple positive factors help gold prices continue to maintain bullish prospects

Basic news

On Friday (March 21, Beijing time), spot gold traded around 3045, and gold prices hit a historical high of $3057.28 on Thursday. Driven by the Federal Reserve's suggestion that a possible interest rate cut and continued geopolitical and economic uncertainty, gold still maintains a bullish outlook; U.S. crude oil rose, trading around $68.51 per barrel, the United States announced new Iran-related sanctions, and the situation in the Middle East was once again tense, overshadowing the impact of the strong US dollar.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 0.03% on Thursday to 41,953.32 points; the S&P 500 fell 0.22% to 5,662.89 points; and the Nasdaq fell 0.33% to 17,691.63 points.

Focus on this day

Feder Williams delivered a speech.

Stock Market

U.S. stocks closed down slightly on Thursday, fluctuating between rising and falling during the session as investors assessed the latest economic data and the Fed's policy statement amid the backdrop of tariff concerns.

In recent weeks, as the Trump administration imposed reciprocal trade tariffs, a range of economic indicators suggest that economic and consumer confidence may be cooling, and pressure on stock markets has intensified.

But in three of the previous four trading days, the index S&P index rose more than 1% on Wednesday, after the Fed kept interest rates unchanged as expected and said it could cut interest rates twice later this year, at 25 basis points each. The Fed also said it expects economic growth to slow down and inflation rises at least temporarily.

San Francisco Wedbus"The situation is very unstable. The news is very uncertain, and the market is very concerned about it, largely depending on the development of certain news events in the avatradescn.coming weeks. We are bottoming out here, but when I look at recent news, I don't have much hope that we will suddenly get rid of it."

Data released Thursday showed that the number of initial jobless claims increased slightly last week, but factors such as government spending cuts, interest rate levels and policy uncertainty may make the outlook bleak. The World Enterprise Research Report said that the indicators for future economic activity fell by 0.2% in January and fell by another 0.3% in February.

According to data from the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG), market participants expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 63 basis points this year, with a 71% chance of cutting interest rates by at least 25 basis points at the June meeting.

Tech stocks were the weakest of the 11 major industries and the biggest drag, while energy stocks rose as crude oil prices rose by nearly 2%, after the U.S. issued new Iranian sanctions.

The avatradescn.company's profit outlook has recently become bleak due to uncertain tariff outlook, but Darden Restaurants rose 5.77% after the OliveGarden-owned avatradescn.company gave a positive outlook on the impact of tariffs on its business.

Gold market

Gold prices fell after hitting record highs earlier on Thursday, but gold remained bullish as the Federal Reserve suggested a possible rate cut and continued geopolitical and economic uncertainty.

Spot gold fell 0.3% to $3,038.79 per ounce due to profit-taking. It hit an all-time high of $3057.21 earlier.

U.S. gold futures rose 0.1% to $3,043.80 per ounce. "Speculators are trying to take advantage of the market to make profits...I think there is some resistance whenever gold hits a new high. Gold hasn't even become a safe haven asset for retail investors because technically, we're not yet in a recession. We're seeing a slowdown, which is likely to bring more uncertainty and increase the desire for safe haven assets." Fed Chairman Powell said Wednesday that Trump's preliminary policies, including the imposition of high import tariffs, could slow U.S. economic growth and intensify inflation. Meanwhile, Trump criticized the Fed's decision to keep interest rates unchanged, although the Fed expects to cut interest rates twice by the end of the year, at 25 basis points each, due to slowing economic growth and rising inflation.

The London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) data shows that traders expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 69 basis points this year — at least twice, 25 basis points each, with the possibility of a July cut that has been fully digested.

Analysts at Citigroup said in a report:We are optimistic that gold prices will reach $3,500 per ounce by the end of the year due to concerns about hard landing/stagflation in the United States and the demand for hedging/investment increases significantly. "

Spot silver fell 1.2% to $33.41 per ounce; platinum fell 1.1% to $982.0; palladium fell 1.3% to $946.5.

Oil market

Oil prices rose Thursday after the U.S. announced new Iran-related sanctions and the situation in the Middle East was once again tense, overshadowing the strong impact of the dollar.

Brent crude oil futures rose 1.22, or 1.72%, with a settlement price of $72 per barrel. April U.S. crude oil futures expired on Thursday, with a settlement price of $1.22. .64% at $68.26. U.S. crude futures, which are more active in trading, rose 1.73% to settle at $68.07.

The U.S. announced sanctions related to Iran on Thursday, targeting China's "tea pot" refineries (independent refineries) and vessels supplying crude oil to such processing plants for the first time.

Phil Flynn, senior analyst at PriceFuturesGroup, said, "We are always looking for some kind of catalyst to drive growth, and that's what drives us back to highs." ”

OPEC+ released a new arrangement on Thursday requiring seven member states to further cut oil production to make up for the portion beyond the deal, which will exceed the monthly increase that the organization plans to start next month.

According to a table on the OPEC website, the monthly cuts involved in the arrangement range from 189,000 barrels per day to 435,000 barrels per day. The arrangement will last until June 2026.

The dollar has curbed the rise in crude oil prices. The dollar rose slightly after the Federal Reserve said on Wednesday that it would not rush to further cuts this year due to uncertainty in U.S. tariffs.

The dollar rose slightly after the U.S. foreign exchange market

The dollar rose on Thursday, a day after the Federal Reserve said it would not rush to further cuts this year due to uncertainties in U.S. tariffs.

Switzerland The central bank lowered policy interest rates to 0.25%, and the Swiss franc fell in response; the Swedish central bank kept interest rates unchanged, and the Swedish Krona fell subsequently.

The euro fell 0.46% against the dollar to $1.0852, with U.S. policymakers kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday and suggested a rate cut would be cut twice later this year, 25 basis points each, as predicted three months ago. "We won't be anxious to take action," Fed Chairman Powell said.

Powell's speech and the Fed's statement highlighted the challenges policymakers face in dealing with President Trump's plan to impose tariffs on U.S. trading partners' products and its impact on the economy. Thursday's data showed a slight increase in the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. last week, suggesting that the labor market remained stable in March. Jayati Bharadwaj, global foreign exchange strategist at TD Securities, said recent U.S. data eased peopleThe dollar has fallen 7% against the euro since mid-January.

She said: "A lot of the bad news has been digested, but no hard data has collapsed as the market fears, and even the Fed has not said they are eager to cut interest rates again. All of these factors have led the market to reevaluate the bearishness they have digested against the dollar," Bharadwaj expects the dollar to strengthen in the near term.

Trades expect the Fed to cut interest rates by about 63 basis points this year, according to data from the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG).

The general strength of the US dollar puts pressure on the pound, but the decline narrowed after the Bank of England's decision was announced. The Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged at 4.5%, warning that due to serious uncertainty in the UK and the world economy, it should not assume that interest rates will be cut in the next few meetings.

The pound rose to a high of $1.3015 against the US dollar in Asia for a period of more than four months before falling back, with New York falling 0.3% at $1.29665 at the end of the trading day.

The Swiss franc fell 0.5% against the dollar after the Swiss National Bank lowered its main interest rate to slightly above zero, noting that there is greater uncertainty about the impact of Trump's trade policy on the world.

The Swedish central bank kept the policy interest rate unchanged at 2.25%, pushing the Swedish krona to fall 0.2% against the US dollar.

The yen fell slightly against the dollar to 148.79 yen, a day after the Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged and warned of increased uncertainty in the global economy, suggesting that the timing of further interest rate hikes will depend on the impact of U.S. tariffs.

The Australian dollar fell 0.9% to $0.6303 after an unexpected decline in Australia's employment data in February ended a strong growth trend, and the labor market overheating has eased despite the stable unemployment rate.

The New Zealand dollar fell 0.9% to $0.5758, and the basic data remained weak despite data showing that New Zealand's economy has emerged from recession, with a growth rate of 0.7% in the last quarter exceeding expectations.

International News

Two months after taking office, Trump officially signed an executive order to streamline the U.S. Department of Education

On the afternoon of March 20, Eastern Time, US President Trump signed an executive order to streamline the Ministry of Education. This was exactly two months after he officially took office as US President. Since Trump officially took office as U.S. president on January 20 this year, he has advocated streamlining government institutions, and the field of education may be the focus of his latest reforms.

Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Summers: The Federal Reserve's decision to sharply slow down the balance sheet has sounded the alarm.

Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Summers said that the Federal Reserve's decision to significantly slow down the pace of balance sheet shrinking has sent a worrying signal to the market's demand for long-term federal debt. Summers "This should attract attention, and it is a vigilant trend." He said the move shows that Fed policymakers believe that "the market is for long-term bonds"limited absorption capacity.” Fed officials said Wednesday he avatradescn.comThey will cut the limit on the number of U.S. bonds that will not reinvest after maturity from $25 billion to $5 billion. Although Fed Chairman Powell said policymakers’ discussions on the issue were related to the federal debt ceiling, the decision also reflects a broader discussion of the appropriate pace of quantitative austerity plans.

Ecuadorian Energy Minister blamed the country’s oil spill on “man-made damage”

On March 19 local time, Ecuadorian Energy Minister Ines Manzano said the country’s northwestern part of the country The oil spill in Esmeraldas, the Hai Province was man-made damage. Manzano said that after investigation, it was found that the cause of the oil spill in Esmeraldas was not a landslide, but a man-made damage incident, with several local rivers polluted and 500,000 people without drinking water. Manzano said the government is currently pursuing the mastermind behind the scenes. Preliminary statistics show that a total of 3,800 barrels of crude oil leaked in the accident. The National Emergency Action avatradescn.commission has declared an environmental emergency in Esmeraldas.

Zelensky adheres to the control of nuclear power plants but is open to U.S. investment

According to Reuters, after speaking with U.S. President Trump, Ukrainian President Zelensky denied that he would give up control of nuclear power plants, but said that he would invest in the U.S. Some facilities are open. Zelensky said he did not discuss ownership of the country's 15 nuclear power units with Trump and said control of these units is equivalent to "safety guarantees" for Ukraine.

The United States and Israel will hold high-level consultations on the Iranian nuclear issue next week

According to Reuters, two Israeli officials and a U.S. official said that the Israeli high delegation is expected to visit the White House early next week to conduct strategic consultations on the Iranian nuclear issue. Trump gave Iran two months to reach a new nuclear deal and proposed a threat to launch a military strike against Iran's nuclear program if it cannot be reached. One of the Israeli officials said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his team believe that the agreement was reached. The possibility is very low. If the situation escalates into a military operation, they hope to reach an agreement on a joint action plan. This will be the first meeting of the US-Israeli strategic consultation group since Trump took office. More than 24 million people in the United States are on fire warnings

According to Reuters, on March 20 local time, strong winds posed a risk of spread to existing fires in many states in the United States on the same day, and the strong storm is moving northeast, and more than 24 million Americans are under fire warnings. It is reported that a wildfire occurred in Sam Houston National Forest in San Jacinto County, Texas on the evening of the 19th. As of the morning of the 20th, the fire had spread to 2,000 acres (about 8.1 square kilometers), the fire was only controlled 10%, and it may be due to strong windsFurther deterioration.

The Canadian Prime Minister may dissolve the parliament on the 23rd and announce the early election

Stock news shows that Canadian Prime Minister Carney may request the Governor to dissolve the parliament on the 23rd and announce the election. March 23 is the day before the 24th day of the resumption of the Canadian Parliament. The campaign is expected to last between 36 and 50 days. Election Day is yet to be determined, but sources said voters are expected to vote on April 28 or May 5. Carney is reportedly making the decision amid the context of polls showing the Liberal Party leading the way in the upcoming campaign.

The United States imposes sanctions on Iranian tankers and Asian independent refineries

According to Reuters, the United States issued new sanctions related to Iran on Thursday, targeting an independent Asian refinery and vessels supplying crude oil to those refineries. Since Donald? President Trump said in February that he would re-exert "maximum pressure" on Iran, including efforts to lower Iran's exports to zero, which is the fourth round of sanctions imposed by the United States on Iran's oil sales. Trump's goal is to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons and funding militant groups. The U.S. Treasury Department imposed sanctions on 12 entities and listed eight ships as frozen property, saying the ships were responsible for transporting millions of barrels of Iranian oil. These ships are just part of Iran's "Shadow Fleet" tankers, supplying private refineries.

The Turkish central bank raised the overnight lending rate to 46% at non-routine meeting

The Turkish central bank raised the overnight lending rate from 44% to 46% at non-routine meeting on Thursday. The policy interest rate and the central bank's overnight lending interest rate remained at 42.5% and 41% respectively. The bank said that "the central bank has taken measures to support a tighter monetary policy stance in assessing the risks these developments may pose to the inflation outlook." In a statement, the central bank said that "in order to maintain the healthy functioning of financial markets, more actions will be taken if necessary." At 5:40 pm Istanbul time, the lira stopped falling and rebounded, rising 0.1% to 1 US dollar against 37.92 lira. Turkish assets plummeted on Wednesday, with the lira under heavy selling pressure after Turkish President Erdogan's opponent, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu.

Domestic News

Train tickets for the first day of the Qingming Festival will be released today

According to the 15-day pre-sale period, train tickets for April 4, which is the first day of the Qingming Festival will be released today. This year's Qingming Festival holiday will be from April 4 to April 6. According to the 15-day pre-sale period of train tickets, train tickets on the first day of the holiday will start to be sold on March 21; train tickets on April 6 will start to be sold on March 23. Passengers who purchase tickets through 12306 can log in to the web page in advance to pre-filling the information. The 12306 system will start at 5 a.m. After passengers pre-filling the information, they can pay attention to the departure time of stations in various places at any time and submit ticket purchase information in a timely manner.

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