Trump unexpectedly joins negotiations, focus turns to the ECB

Early Thursday, April 17, market sentiment showed a positive shift, with U.S. stock index futures rising about 1% at the opening of the European session. The European Central Bank (ECB) will announce the monetary policy decision later that day, and ECB President Christine Lagarde will speak on the prospects and answer questions at a press conference. The U.S. Economic Calendar will release the number of first-time unemployment claims and new home starts in March.

The major Wall Street stock indexes suffered huge losses on Wednesday as concerns over deepening Sino-US trade conflicts intensified. During the early trading session of the Asian session on Thursday, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said in a statement that if the United States continues to play the "tariff number game", they will ignore it. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump said that negotiators made "significant progress" after Washington and Japanese representatives met on tariffs.

After late Wednesday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated in a speech at the Chicago Economic Club that the Fed is ready to wait for clearer news before considering a change in policy stance. “Our obligation is to maintain a good anchor for long-term inflation expectations,” Powell noted. The U.S. dollar (USD) index began to rebound after falling about 0.8% on Wednesday, and remained in a positive area above 99.50 on Thursday.

Basic foreign exchange market trends:

Euro/USD rose more than 1% on Wednesday, setting a record high of 1.1400 in a single-day closing price since February 2022. The pair corrected lower in early trading on Thursday, tradingPrice is slightly higher than 1.1350. The market generally expects the ECB to lower key interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) after its April policy meeting. Given the uncertainty of the inflation and growth prospects of the new U.S. trade regime, investors will carefully review the language of the statement and President Lagarde's avatradescn.comments.

The US dollar/Canada dollar faced bearish pressure on Wednesday and closed in the negative territory on the day. As widely expected, the Bank of Canada (BoC) announced that it would keep the policy interest rate unchanged at 2.75. In its policy statement, the Bank of Canada did not provide forward-looking guidance, citing the impact of U.S. tariffs led to increased uncertainty. The pair held its position on Thursday and rebounded to 1.3900.

Data from Australia earlier in the day showed that the unemployment rate rose slightly from 4% in February to 4.1% in March. During this period, employment changes were +32.2, significantly higher than the previous record decline in 57.5K but lower than the market expectations of +40K growth. The Australian dollar/dollar rose for the sixth straight day on Wednesday, but reversed its direction during Thursday's Asian trading session. As of press time, the pair fell 0.5% to 0.6340 on the day.

The pound/dollar closed slightly higher on Wednesday as weaker than expected inflation data in the UK limited its strength. The pair moved lower during Thursday's European session but successfully remained above 1.3200.

The US dollar/JPY fell about 1%, falling below the lowest level since September of 142.00. The pair gained traction on Thursday and traded above 142.50. Japanese Economic Secretary Ryosei Akazawa said officials agreed to hold a second meeting with the United States this month for the next round of trade negotiations. Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated on Thursday that the central bank would raise policy interest rates if the economic outlook is realized.

Basic market basichttps://avatradescn.comFactor:

Gold benefited from safe-haven demand on Wednesday and rose by more than 3.5% on Wednesday. Gold/USD entered a consolidation phase and fell back to the $3,330 area after hitting an all-time high of more than $3,350 during the Asian session on Thursday.

Analysis of major currency trends:

Euro: The intraday bias of the euro/dollar remains neutral at present. Consolidation starting from 1.1472 is still in progress, and a deeper decline cannot be ruled out. But the downside space should be turned into support by the 1.1145 resistance level to bring another rebound. On the plus side, breaking through 1.1472 will target the 161.8% forecast of 1.0358 to 1.0953, from 1.0731 to 1.1694.

GBP: After GBP/USD failed to break through the recent channel resistance and fell back, a temporary top was formed at 1.3291. First, some consolidation will be seen, but as long as 55 4-hour EMA (now at 1.3078) remain, a further rebound is expected. Above 1.3291 will recover from 1.2099 to 1.2099 to 1.3206 forecast, from 1.2706 to 1.3390, and may further rise to a high of 1.3433. However, a continuous breakthrough of 554HEMA will turn bias back downwards to achieve a deeper pullback.

Yen: The intraday bias of the US dollar/yen has declined again, breaking through the temporary low of 142.05. The current decline from 158.86 should expand to 139.57 support. On the positive side, the small resistance above 144.07 will turn into intraday bias neutrality again. But as long as the 151.20 resistance holds, the overall outlook will remain bearish.

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