U.S. retail data in February boosts gold to return to $3,000, Trump appoints Bowman as vice chairman of Fed regulation

On March 18, early trading in the Asian market on Tuesday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 103.46. On Monday, the U.S. retail sales data fell below expectations, and the U.S. dollar index plunged in the session and finally closed down 0.288% to 103.4. U.S. Treasury yields rose and fell, with the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields closed at 4.306%; and the two-year U.S. Treasury yields, which are more sensitive to monetary policy, closed at 4.057%. Spot gold consolidated near historical highs, rebounded strongly after the release of retail sales data, and finally closed up 0.52% at $3,001.49 per ounce. Spot silver failed to successfully recover the 34 mark and finally closed up 0.19% to $33.84 per ounce. International oil prices continued to rise as the United States hit the Houthi forces hard and China's economic data boosted demand expectations. WTI crude oil once hit the 68 mark and finally closed up 0.48% to $67.24 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed up 0.64% to $70.65 per barrel.

Analysis of major currencies trends

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovers around 103.46. The dollar remained under pressure early this week, and the dollar fell as investors digested weaker-than-expected retail sales data and prepared for key political developments. President Donald Trump will be with Russian President Vladimir Putin on TuesdayVladimir Putin) discusses the Ukrainian issue. Meanwhile, bond yields have no direction as traders await policy updates from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, a key event that will affect market sentiment. Technically, the U.S. dollar index is trying to close below support level 103.20–103.40. If this attempt is successful, the U.S. dollar index will move towards the next support level 102.00-102.20.

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovers around 1.0915. The escalation of the trade war puts pressure on the euro (EUR) as U.S. President Donald Trump further tariffs on EU goods. However, a weaker dollar (USD) could limit downside space for major currency pairs due to concerns about a slowdown in the U.S. economy and hopes for a German fiscal deal. Technically, the successful test of resistance level 1.0920–1.0935 will push the EUR/USD toward the next resistance level 1.1030–1.1050.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.2983. Investors are paying attention to important monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of England (BoE). The Bank of England will meet on Thursday and is expected to keep interest rates unchanged. Still, interest rate futures traders expect to cut interest rates by 50 basis points by the end of 2025. After that, traders will follow Treasury Secretary Rachel Reeves’ update on public finance next week. Technically, if GBP/USD successfully climbs above the 1.3000 level, it will move towards the next resistance level 1.3050–1.3070.

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

On Tuesday, gold trading around 3001.5. U.S. stocks reflected an improvement in risk appetite, and traders were dismissive of the weak U.S. February retail sales report. In addition, the New York Fed Empire Manufacturing Index plummeted, raising concerns that the economy may fall into a recession. Therefore, money market futures are priced at 64 basis points (bps) of the Federal Reserve's easing policy by the end of the year.

Technical: The price of gold is still close to its historical high, but it has not risen sharply because the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has exited the overbought area, opening the door for the pullback. It should be said that gold reaches higher prices, and RSI fails to hitNew highs, negative divergence. Still, if gold breaks through the previous all-time high of $3,004, the next resistance will be $3,050 and $3,100. Conversely, if the daily closing price is below $3,000, it may retrace to the February 20 high of $2,954, followed by the $2,900 mark.

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

On Tuesday, crude oil trading around 67.23. The rise in international oil prices is mainly boosted by the improvement in the economic outlook of the United States and China, the two largest crude oil consumers in the world. At the same time, the US military strike against the Houthi armed forces in Yemen has exacerbated market concerns about the further escalation of the situation in the Middle East. Previously, retail sales data released by the United States showed that consumption only slowed slightly, not as sharply as some market participants expected. Meanwhile, the Chinese government plans to take measures to stabilize the stock market and real estate market, raise wages and encourage fertility rates, Xinhua News Agency reported.

Technical: As traders pay attention to the development of events in the Middle East, prices have risen. The U.S. attack on Houthi forces to stop shipping attacks has raised concerns about the safety of oil supply routes in the region. If WTI oil prices successfully close above the $67.00-$67.50 support level, it will move towards the $70.00 level.

Forex market trading reminder on March 18, 2025

①Updated US President Trump talks with Russian President Putin

②18:00 Germany March ZEW Economic Prosperity Index

③18:00 Eurozone March ZEW Economic Prosperity Index

④18:00 Eurozone January seasonal adjustment trade account

⑤20:30 Canada February CPI monthly rate

⑥20:30 US February new home starts annualized

⑦20:30 US February construction permits

⑧ 20:30 US import price index monthly rate in February

⑨21:15 US industrial output monthly rate in February

⑩NVIDIA CEO Huang Renxun delivered a keynote speech

? The next day 04:30 US to March 14 API crude oil inventories

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