Trump and Putin are about to have a call, market focuses on trade tariffs and Fed policy meetings, geopolitical tensions support gold prices

Basic news

On Tuesday (March 18, Beijing time), spot gold trading was around 3001.13, and gold prices rose on Monday, slightly below the historical high of $3004.82. The market focus was on trade tariffs and the Federal Reserve's policy meeting. U.S. crude oil traded around $67.13 per barrel, and oil prices rose slightly on Monday after the United States vowed to continue attacking the Houthis in Yemen until the Iran-aligned group ended its attack on the ship, and U.S. President Trump and Putin will talk to each other during the day.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 0.85% to 41,841.63 points on Monday; the S&P 500 closed up 0.64% to 5,675.12 points; and the Nasdaq rose 0.31% to 17,808.66 points.

Stock Market

U.S. stocks rose for the second straight day on Monday, with investors seeking low-buy buying after four consecutive weeks of declines in the Nasdaq and S&P 500, and assessing the latest economic data to measure the impact of Trump administration’s policies.

U.S. retail sales rebounded slightly in February, consumers shrank non-essential spending, and economic uncertainty intensified against the backdrop of tariffs and large-scale federal layoffs. Another report showed that New York State's manufacturing activity hit its biggest drop in nearly two years in March.

Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at AnnexWealth Management, said: "The only sign of spending rebounding from the downturn in January due to weather, and the stockpiling before tariffs take effect is online spending. Sentiment oftenIt is a bad indicator in predicting consumption, but the good atmosphere that supports consumption is now a distant memory. "

In addition, due to imports avatradescn.com Material tariffs raise construction costs, and U.S. residential builders sentiment fell to a seven-month low in March.

According to CME's FedWatch tool, the market generally expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged when it meets on Wednesday.

Fed officials will also release economic forecasts alongside policy statements, which will provide the most concrete evidence of how Fed officials view the possible impact of Trump administration policies that have cast a shadow on the previously solid economic outlook.

>The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta adjusted its forecast for first-quarter economic activity, downgrading to 2.1% from a forecast contraction of 1.6% on March 7.

In recent weeks, the S&P 500 fell more than 10% from its all-time high in February last week, a decline defined as entering the correction range. The market rebounded Friday as investors bought stocks that could perform better under Trump policy.

The blue-chip Dow is about 3% away from entering the correction range after rising in the past two trading days, while the Nasdaq confirmed it had entered the correction range on March 6.

Among the 11 major sectors of the S&P, real estate and energy led the gains, while Consumer discretionary products> is the only sector that has fallen.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Bescent warned in an interview last weekend that there is no guarantee that the U.S. will avoid a recession.

Tesla fell 4.79%, after brokerage Ruisui lowered the electric car maker’s target share price from $515 to $430. The stock has fallen 41% this year.

As artificial intelligence chip maker Nvidia holds its annual conference, quantum avatradescn.computing stocks such as D-WaveQuantum and QuantumCorp rose 10.15% and 40.09%, respectively. Intel rose 6.82%, after Reuters reported that new CEO Chen Liwu considered Major changes to its chip manufacturing methods and artificial intelligence strategy.

Golden market

Gold prices rose on Monday, slightly below the $3,000 mark that had been breached last week, with market focus on trade tariffs and the Federal Reserve's policy meeting. Spot gold was $2,998.14 per ounce, up 0.5%, and hit a record high of $3,004.82 last Friday. U.S. gold futures closed up 0.2% higher and settled at $3,006.10.

The Federal Reserve will release new economic forecasts this week, which will be the most direct evidence of how policymakers view President Trump's policies as likely impact, which has cast a dark over the previous solid economic outlookfilm.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Becent said on Sunday that there is no guarantee that the United States will not experience a recession, although there may be adjustments.

David Meger, head of metal trading at HighRidge Futures, said: "I expect some consolidation in gold prices, and now the market is in a 'waiting and watching' state before the Fed makes a decision." The market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, with the next rate cut in June.

U.S. retail sales rebounded slightly in February, consumers shrank non-essential spending, and economic uncertainty intensified against the backdrop of tariffs and large-scale federal layoffs.

Trump said he plans to speak with Russian President Putin on Tuesday to discuss the issue of ending the Ukrainian war.

Spot silver remained flat at $33.78 per ounce; palladium rose 0.2% to $967.01; platinum rose 0.9% to $1,002. Oil market

Oil prices rose slightly on Monday after the U.S. vowed to continue attacking the Houthis in Yemen until the Iran-alien group ended its attack on ships, while economic data from Asian powers boosted hopes of demand growth.

U.S. President Trump said on Monday that he would hold Iran responsible for any attacks launched by his backing Houthi militants in Yemen, and his administration is expanding the largest U.S. military operation in the Middle East since Trump returned to the White House. Brent crude oil closed up 0.7%, with a settlement price of $71.07 per barrel; U.S. crude oil futures rose 0.6%, with a settlement price of $67.58. Houthi-affiliated AlMasirah TV said that the Red Sea port city of Hodeida and the province of Jorv north of the capital Sanaa were targeted on Monday. Official data on Monday showed that China's crude oil processing volume in January and February rose 2.1% year-on-year, supported by new refineries and holiday tourism. Phil Flynn, senior analyst at PriceFutures Group, said: This morning, the avatradescn.combination of stimulus and Houthi's increased attacks has had a significant boost to oil.

As investors worry about the economic impact of Trump's trade protectionist policies, the dollar has fallen against a basket of currencies. The weakening of the dollar has reduced the cost of buying oil for overseas buyers, which has stimulated demand.

Trump said he will hold talks with Russian President Putin on Tuesday on the end of the Ukrainian war, with territorial concessions in Kiev and control of the Zaporo thermonuclear power plant likely to be the focus of the talks.

Foreign Market

The dollar hovered near a five-month low against the euro on Monday, and concerns over the economic consequences of U.S. President Trump's trade protectionist policy have kept investors cautious about the dollar.

The euro has risen in recent trading days, boosted by hopes of the German fiscal agreement. The euro was $1.092325 on Monday, up 0.4%, slightly lower than the 1 hit last weekThe highest since October 11, .0947.

The foreign exchange market has changed in recent months, with traders reassessing their initial expectations that Trump's economic policy will both support the dollar and cause other currencies to soften. This reassessment prompted the dollar to fall 6% against the euro since mid-January. "I think the market has found the judgment wrong, and they expect tax cuts and deregulation will promote economic growth, but also create a risk-averse sentiment," said Kyle Chapman, a foreign exchange market analyst at BallingerGroup. "In fact, protectionism is more concerned, which makes people dizzy."

Since taking office in January this year, Trump has announced that he would impose tariffs on several trading partners and announced a suspension of tariffs, which has made the market nervous. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bescent said in an interview on Sunday that although the possibility of a financial crisis was ruled out, he said "can't guarantee" that the United States will not experience an economic recession. Retail sales rebounded slightly in February, with a 1.2% decline in January reading, a report released by the U.S. Department of avatradescn.commerce on Monday.

There are meetings between several central banks this week, including the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England, and policymakers are generally expected to remain silent as policymakers try to clarify the current economic uncertainty.

The dollar rose 0.4% against the yen to 149.160 yen, not far from the five-month low of 146.52 yen that hit last week.

The Bank of Japan is expected to keep interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, but the conditions for another rate hike are already in place. Large Japanese avatradescn.companies have proposed a significant salary increase for the third consecutive year in wage negotiations with trade unions.

International News

Putin and Trump will call the Russian side on the 18th to reveal more preparations

On March 17, local time, Russian President’s Press Secretary Peskov said that the telephone conversation between Russian President Putin and US President Trump is preparing for the theme of the agenda, and the main topic is to mediate the Ukrainian issue. In answering reporters' questions about the duration of the call, Peskov said that preparations for similar telephone conversations could be avatradescn.completed in a short period of time. Earlier in the day Peskov said Putin and Trump would be on the phone on March 18. Trump also said on the evening of the 16th local time that he plans to talk to Putin on the 18th.

Canadian new Prime Minister Carney aims at Europe's diplomatic debut to try to win over Britain and France in response to the heavy pressure from the United States

Mark Carney proposed a closer alliance with European allies during his first international visit since taking office as Canadian Prime Minister. As relations with the United States become increasingly tense, Canada hopes to reduce its dependence on its northern neighbors. Carney told French President Macron in Paris that Canada must deepen trade and security relations with European democracies. “I want to make sure France and Europe as a whole work actively with Canada, the most European-specific non-European country,” he said. Carney, who was sworn in on Friday, added Canada remains "stable"The land belongs to North America" ​​and will seek to "maintain as positive relationship as possible with the United States."

Lebanon and Syria agree to a border ceasefire

Lebanon Minister of Defense spoke with the head of the Syrian defense department to discuss the latest developments in the border situation between Lebanon and Syria. The two sides agreed to a ceasefire, and the Lebanese intelligence department will continue to maintain avatradescn.communication to prevent the deterioration of the border situation between the two countries and to prevent the death of innocent civilians. On the same day, the Lebanese Foreign Minister held a meeting with the head of the Syrian diplomatic department. The two sides discussed the latest developments in the border between Lebanon and Syria and agreed to Keep avatradescn.communication to ensure both countries’ sovereignty and prevent further escalation of security situations.

Trump appointed Bowman as Fed’s vice chairman of regulation

U.S. President Trump chose Fed Governor Michelle Bowman as vice chairman of central bank regulation, which Wall Street banks and small lenders welcomed, who expect she will be more friendly to the industry. Trump said in a social media post on Monday: “Michelle has served on the Fed’s Council since 2018 and has extensive expertise in handling inflation, regulation and banking. ”

New York Fed Survey: American consumers see the risk of loan rejection rising

New York Fed data shows that more and more American consumers say they do not seek loans because they expect to be rejected in the context of tighter credit conditions. The latest New York Fed survey shows that those "discouraged borrowers" who have a need to borrow but do not apply because they do not expect approval. er) proportion rose to 8.5%. This is the highest level since the study began in 2013. The possibility of different forms of credit being rejected is seen as an upward trend, from bank cards to loans for homes and cars. About one-third of auto loan applicants are expected to be rejected, the highest percentage since the series of surveys began, and nearly half of respondents said in a February survey that it would be harder to obtain credit in a year.

U.S. military issued a statement to Yemen's Houthi forces A new round of air strikes

According to Yemen's Houthi armed forces, on the evening of the 17th local time, the US military air strikes the Salif and Badje areas of Hodeida Province controlled by the Houthi armed forces. The US Department of Defense stated on the same day that the first wave of air strikes on Yemen involved more than 30 targets, including the Houthi armed training base. A spokesperson for the US Department of Defense said that "this is not an endless offensive" and has nothing to do with the change of regime in the Middle East. The spokesperson said that the operation has a very clear end state. That is, the Houthi armed forces promise to stop attacking American ships and stop endangering American lives.

Germany car avatradescn.company Audi announced that it will lay off about 7,500 employees in Germany

On the 17th local time, the management of the well-known German automaker Audi and the avatradescn.company's union reached an agreement on a layoff plan, confirming that it will cut about 7,500 jobs in Germany by 2029 to reduce costs and improve avatradescn.competitiveness. At the same time, Audi announced that it will be in the next five yearsIntroverted to the German factory, a total of 8 billion euros were invested in technological innovation and production line upgrades. Models originally produced in other countries are expected to be produced at the Ingolstadt factory, and the plant will also add a brand new electric vehicle to further promote the electrification transformation. However, Audi's electric vehicle strategy is facing challenges. Market data shows that demand growth for electric vehicles did not meet expectations, causing Audi to adjust its original plan to eliminate fuel vehicles.

The spending reduction plan was opposed by colleagues. The British Chancellor promised to control government debt.

Faced with Labor colleagues who opposed cutting welfare and government spending, the British Chancellor Rachel Reeves defended his fiscal rules and promised to reduce government debt. “When we spend £100 billion ($130 billion) a year to pay government debt, I don’t think anyone will seriously say we don’t need to control government borrowing and government debt,” Reeves said in an interview on Monday. "It is important to have enough room to deal with the impact we face." Reeves made the statement ahead of her spring statement on March 26. By then she is expected to announce a multi-billion pound cut to ensure avatradescn.compliance with key fiscal regulations, that daily expenses are paid by tax revenue.

Ukraine discusses energy and transportation issues with EU and Hungarian officials

Ukrainian Energy Minister German Galushchenko discusses energy security and transit issues with Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto and EU Energy avatradescn.commissioner Dan Jorgensen. Ukraine's Ministry of Energy said Ukraine remains a reliable partner of the EU and that Ukraine is continuing to recover after the recent attack on energy and gas infrastructure. The two sides also discussed oil and gas supply and electricity import and export.

Domestic News

Consumption quality and expansion open up new spaces Listed avatradescn.companies have multi-dimensional innovation and cultivate growth poles

The General Office of the CPC Central avatradescn.committee and the State Council issued the "Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption" on March 16. The "Plan" proposes to vigorously boost consumption, expand domestic demand in all aspects, increase income and burden to improve consumption capacity, create effective demand with high-quality supply, optimize the consumption environment and enhance consumption willingness, and solve the prominent contradictions and problems that restrict consumption in a targeted manner. Policy dividends continue to be released, and the supply side of the consumer industry is accelerating changes. Interviews with many listed avatradescn.companies found that from the upgrade of intelligent manufacturing to the deepening of integration of digital and real, from the expansion of scenario innovation to the improvement of urban and rural networks, listed avatradescn.companies in the consumer industry chain promote the benign interaction between the supply side and the demand side through collaborative innovation of technology, business formats and channels. Industry insiders believe that driven by the dual wheels of policy and market, the consumer industry is shifting from scale expansion to quality leap, and innovative supply capacity, omni-channel penetration efficiency and sinking market response speed will become important avatradescn.competitiveness for listed avatradescn.companies to seize the opportunities of a new round of consumer recovery.

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