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Hello everyone, today Avatrade Aihua Foreign Exchange will bring you "[Aihua Foreign Exchange Official Website]: Collection of positive and negative news that affects the foreign exchange market". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
Global macroeconomic trends: Economic differentiation intensifies market volatility
Good news
U.S. employment data exceeds expectations: The U.S. Department of Labor released its April non-farm employment report on the same day, with 286,000 new jobs, far exceeding the expected 200,000, and the unemployment rate remained at a low of 3.8%. Data strengthened the Fed's position to maintain high interest rates, and the US dollar index rose 0.8% in the short term, approaching the 106 mark.
Eurozone inflation cooled: Germany's CPI rose 2.4% year-on-year in April, hitting a new low since May 2023, alleviating the pressure on the ECB to raise interest rates. The euro/dollar exchange rate rebounded to 1.0850 at one point, but the gains were restrained by Italian political turmoil.
Bank of Japan reduces bond purchases: The Bank of Japan announced that it would reduce the monthly Treasury bond purchase volume from 6 trillion yen to 5.5 trillion yen, suggesting that exiting the easing policy may be advanced, the yen strengthens rapidly, and the US dollar/yen falls below 150.
Bold news
China's economic data was weak: China's GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year in the first quarter. Although it was in line with expectations, the manufacturing PMI fell to 49.2 in April, returning to the contraction range, and the offshore RMB fell to the 7.25 mark against the US dollar.
UK retail sales plummeted: UK retail sales fell 1.8% month-on-month in March, the biggest drop since October 2023, with the pound/dollar losing 1.26 support.
Canada's trade deficit widened: Canada's trade deficit reached 11.4 billion Canadian dollars in March, far exceeding expectations, and the Canadian dollar fell to 1.3850 against the US dollar, a new low this year.
Political trends of the central bank: Eagle and pigeon game dominates the exchange rate trend
The Federal Reserve's "eagle voice" has reappeared
Feder Vice Chairman Brainard emphasized in his speech that "we need to be wary of the risk of inflation rebound". The market's bet on a 25 basis point rate hike in June rose to 35%, and the US dollar index benefited and strengthened.
Badministrative emerging market currencies: offshore RMB, Indian rupee, etc. are under pressure, and the Korean won fell below the 1400 psychological mark against the US dollar.
Disaster internal to the European Central Bank
Bernard Nagel advocates continuing interest rate hikes, while Spanish Bank President De Kos called for "suspended interest rate hikes to observe economic data." Eurozone money market pricing shows that the rate cut may expand to 100 basis points this year, and the euro is under pressure in the medium term.
Bank of Japan's intervention expectations have heated up
Japanese Ministry of Finance officials have hinted that "we are ready to deal with excessive fluctuations in the yen". If the US dollar/yen breaks through 155, it may trigger a new round of foreign exchange intervention. However, the market believes that the probability of intervention in the short term is low, and the yen arbitrage trading is active.
Geopolitical and market risks: Risk aversion sentiment pushes up the US dollar
The situation in the Middle East escalates: Iran-backed Houthi forces attack Saudi oil transfer facilities in eastern Saudi Arabia, Brent crude oil jumped 4%, safe-haven buying poured into the US dollar, and high-risk currencies such as the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar fell.
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict is stalemate: NATO announced an additional 20 billion euros of military aid to Ukraine, the ruble fell to the 102 mark against the US dollar, and the Russian Central Bank urgently raised interest rates by 50 basis points to stabilize the exchange rate.
U.S. election primary disturbance: Republican candidate Trump's poll support rate rose, and his remarks on "increasing tariffs on China" triggered expectations of RMB depreciation, and offshore RMB volatility soared to a high this year.
Technical and capital flow: US dollar bulls have the upper hand
United States dollar index: daily line stands firm at 105.5 key support, MACD golden cross continues, with the upper target of 107.5 (2024 high).
Euro/USD: Fall below the 1.08 key level. If it effectively breaks below 1.0750, it may open up the space to fall to 1.06.
U.S./JPY: Blocked by 150.5 resistance, but https://avatradescn.com If the breakthrough is made, it will accelerate to reach the 152-153 range.
Fund flow: According to CFTC data, net long positions in the US dollar increased to US$28 billion in the week ended April 11, a record high since November 2023.
avatradescn.comprehensive Outlook and Operational Suggestions
Short-term positive factors: US economic resilience, Federal Reserve hawkish stance, and geopolitical safe-haven demand support the US dollar; the Bank of Japan's reduction in bond purchases is positive that the yen will rebound in a phased phase.
Short-term negative factors: China's weak economic recovery, European political risks, and pressure to sell currencies in emerging markets.
Institutional Views:
Goldman Sachs maintains the US dollar's "tactical long" rating and recommends increasing holdings of US dollar/JPY at low prices.
Morgan Stanley warned that “the risk of recession in the euro zone is underestimated” and bearish on the euro/dollar to 1.05.
Operation strategy:
Short-term traders can pay attention to the chance of chasing long after the US dollar/yen breaks through 150.5, and the stop loss is set at 149.8.
Europe bulls need to wait for the stabilization signal below 1.07, and mid-term investors can place short positions in euros at highs.
The RMB exchange rate fluctuations are intensifying, and enterprises need to strengthen exchange rate hedging to avoid unilateral bets.
The above content is all about "【Aihua Foreign Exchange Official Website】: Collection of Positive and Negative News that Influence the Foreign Exchange Market". It was carefully avatradescn.compiled and edited by Aihua Avatrade Foreign Exchange Editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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