US CPI inflation cooled down in February, and the Fed's expectation of interest rate cuts decreased instead of increasing!

On March 13, early trading in the Asian market on Thursday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 103.57. On Wednesday, the US dollar index fluctuated sideways and remained hovering at a five-month low, finally closing up 0.184% to 103.58. The yield on the US Treasury fell in the short term after the release of CPI data, and then rose rapidly. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield closed at 4.315%; the two-year US Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to monetary policy, hit the 4% mark during the session and finally closed at 3.991%. Boosted by tariff uncertainty and cooling of inflation reports, spot gold continued to rise in the US session, touching the $2,940 mark for a time, and finally closed up 0.59% to $2,933.29 per ounce. Spot silver closed up 0.64% to $33.15 per ounce. International oil prices continued to rebound as U.S. government data showed oil and gas inventories were tighter than expected. WTI crude oil hit a high of $67.56 per barrel, finally closing up 1.66% to $67.41 per barrel; Brent crude oil recovered the 70 mark and finally closed up 1.55% to $70.72 per barrel.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovers around 103.56. The latest CPI report shows inflation slowed in February, with monthly and annual data lower than expected. The overall monthly inflation rate is 0avatradescn.com.2%, down from 0.5% in January, and the core inflation rate dropped to 0.2%, lower than expected0.3%. Technically, the US dollar index continues to try to close below support level 103.20–103.40. If the U.S. dollar index successfully closes below the 103.20 level, it will gain additional downward momentum and move towards the next support level 102.00–102.20.

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovers around 1.0886. EUR/USD buys relaxed the throttle on Wednesday, sending Fiber back about a third of 1% and pushing bids back below the main 1.0900 price mark. Even though the euro/dollar rebounded sharply in the past few weeks, buyers are falling after re-adjusting Fiber over 5% in less than two weeks. European economic data have hardly appeared this week due to concerns about the trade war and U.S. inflation data dominated. On Wednesday, the U.S. imposed 25% global tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports, marking a significant escalation in President Donald Trump's goal of launching a trade war with all the country's allies. Technically, successful testing of resistance level 1.0920–1.0935 will push the EUR/USD to the next resistance level 1.1030–1.1050.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.2963. The pound/dollar cycled around the recent high on Wednesday, building a foundation near the key 1.3000 mark as the market needed a moment after U.S. consumer price index (CPI) inflation cooled more than expected in February. The market is now awaiting Thursday's U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI), with key consumer sentiment and consumer inflation expectations set to be announced on Friday. Technically, if GBP/USD remains above the 1.2950 level, it will move towards the next resistance level in the range of 1.3050–1.3070.

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

On Thursday, gold trading was close to 2938.26. Gold prices rose late in the North American session and were not affected by high U.S. Treasury yields and stronger U.S. dollar on Wednesday. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed that the U.S. (US) consumer inflation fell slightly in February. Still, investors remain skeptical of the improvement, as aggressive tariffs on U.S. imports could trigger a second round of inflation. February data increased the likelihood of the Federal Reserve's three rate cuts in 2025. Nevertheless, the Federal Reserve, led by Chairman Jerome PowellOfficials said they would not focus on data for only one month.

Technical: Gold prices have exceeded the top of the trading range of $2880-$2930 and hit a two-week high of $2940. Buyers regard $2950 as the next key resistance level, and then break through the all-time high of $2954. Once surpassed, gold will be ready to challenge $3,000. Conversely, if gold falls below $2900, the next support will be $2850, higher than the February 28 low of $2832. Next is $2,800.

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

On Thursday, crude oil trading around 67.32. WTI prices continued to rise amid tight oil intakes. However, due to growing concerns about a slowdown in the U.S. economy and the impact of tariffs on global economic growth, WTI prices may have limited upside potential. Nevertheless, U.S. President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariffs on imported goods are expected to raise corporate prices, push up inflation and undermine consumer confidence, thus hitting economic growth. This, in turn, could drag down WTI prices. The White House confirmed on Tuesday that a new 25% tariff on all imported steel and aluminum will still take effect on Wednesday, including targeting allies and major U.S. suppliers Canada and Mexico.

Technical: Pay attention to the EIA report, which shows that gasoline inventory has decreased by 5.7 million barrels avatradescn.compared with the previous week, so it has risen. If WTI crude successfully closes above $67.50, it will move towards an important psychological level of $70.00.

Forex market trading reminder on March 13, 2025

①15:00 The Ministry of avatradescn.commerce held its first regular press conference in March

②17:00 IEA released its monthly crude oil market report

③18:00 Eurozone January industrial output monthly rate

④20:30 US February PPI annual rate

⑤20:30 US February PPI monthly rate< /p>

⑥20:30 Number of initial unemployment claims for the week from the United States to March 8

⑦22:30 EIA natural gas inventories in the week from the United States to March 7

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