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Hello everyone, today Avatrade Aihua Foreign Exchange will bring you "[Aihua Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: Trump's plan to promote automobile import tariffs, and short-term trend analysis of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on March 27." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
Global Market Review
1. European and American market trends
The three major stock index futures rose, with Dow futures mainly blue-chip stocks rising by 0.23%; S&P 500 futures rose by 0.11%; and Nasdaq 100 futures mainly technology stocks rose by 0.01%. European stock markets fell, with the German DAX index falling 0.64%; the French CAC40 index falling 0.26%; and the UK FTSE 100 index falling 0.55%.
2. Market news interpretation
Trump pushes auto import tariff plan European auto stocks plummeted
After U.S. President Trump announced the latest auto import tariff plan, the Stoke Europe 600 Automobile and Parts Index fell 3%, falling to its lowest level since early December. At the same time, a U.S. official said the tariffs will also cover auto parts. Among European stock indexes, the German DAX index performed the worst because of the high proportion of automakers, down 0.9%. Johen, an analyst at Interactive Brokers? "The new tariffs will significantly worsen the situation for German automakers, whose profits have been hit hard," said Stantzl. Among European automakers, Porsche fell 4.1%, Strantis fell 3.9%, and Mercedes-Benz fell 3.6%.
Norwegian Central Bank's position adjusts with Norwegian Krone
①Norwegian Central Bank's latest policy statements present a hawkish tone, pushing the Norwegian Krone to rise against the euro, but the euro is oversold against the Norwegian Krone (EUR/NOK) and the adjustment risk is still high. ② Norwegian benchmark interest rate remains at 4.5%,The central bank hinted at its January meeting that it could cut interest rates. Domestic inflation jumped from 2.8% in January to 3.4%, far exceeding the central bank's 2.0% target. ③At Thursday's meeting, the Norwegian central bank said it could still cut interest rates this year, but analysts tend to believe interest rates may remain unchanged this year and 2026. ④EUR/NOK fell nearly 5% from its high of 11.8350 on March 5, and fell to 11.2920 on March 25, and appeared a bullish hammer-shaped candlestick chart. The relative strength indicator has fallen below the key 30 level and is still in the oversold range despite rebounding to 11.3940 on Thursday. ⑤ Although the hawkish stance of the Norwegian Central Bank is beneficial to the Norwegian Krone, EUR/NOK needs to be adjusted to maintain the health of the overall downward trend. The minimum adjustment for March declines was 11.4201, while the 50% Fibonacci pullback from 11.8350 to 11.2920 declines was 11.5635.
The Trump administration pushes for new policy consensus in the oil and biofuel industry
① The Trump administration requires oil giants and biofuel producers in the agricultural zone to reach agreements on new biofuel policies to avoid political conflicts similar to their first term. ②The two sides have held at least two meetings and have initially agreed to increase biomass diesel production, but other key issues are still under discussion. ③The core topics discussed include future mandatory mixing of biofuels, exemptions from small refineries, and biofuel tax policies. ④The parties have differences on the mandatory mixing of renewable diesel and biodiesel, with the discussion ranging from 4.75 billion to 5.5 billion gallons. ⑤The upper limit of ethanol mixing is 15 billion gallons, and due to the stable demand for gasoline, there is limited room for growth. ⑥ The issue of exemption from small refineries remains the focus of controversy and involves conflicts of interest from all parties. ⑦ The new tax credit policy (45Z) formulated by the Biden administration for biomass diesel is also under discussion, but no consensus has been reached.
South African producer inflation rate was lower than expected
①In February 2025, South African producer price inflation rate fell to 1%, lower than 1.1% in January and 1.3% in market expectations. ② The price increase of food, beverage and tobacco products fell from 4.4% in January to 4.2%; the price increase of metal, machinery, equipment and avatradescn.computer equipment fell from 1.4% to 1.2%; the price of non-metallic mineral products fell from 1.7% to -1.6%; the price of electrical machinery, avatradescn.communications and metrology equipment fell from 5.1% to 3.7%. ③In addition, the prices of paper and printing products fell by 2.8% (3.1% in January), while the prices of coke, petroleum, chemical, rubber and plastic products fell by 1.8% (1.8% in January). ④ Monthly data showed that producer prices rose by 0.4% in February, lower than 0.5% in January and 0.7% expected by market expectations.
The Norwegian Central Bank maintained interest rates stable, suggesting that interest rate cuts may be made in 2025
①In March 2025, the Norwegian Central Bank maintained the interest rate of key policy unchanged at 4.5% for the tenth consecutive time, in line with market expectations. ② Policy makers point out that inflationThe rate rose sharply, far higher than expected, with Norway's annual inflation rate rising to 3.6% in February 2025, up from 2.3% in January, the highest level since April 2024. ③ The central bank warned that premature rate cuts may further drive price increases. Nonetheless, officials said the current outlook suggests a rate cut could be expected later in 2025, but uncertainty about future economic development remains. ④ The central bank's policy interest rate forecast shows that interest rates may drop to 4% by the end of this year and gradually decline in the next few years.
UK Treasury yields remained stable after the spring budget
① After the spring budget was released on Wednesday, UK government bond yields remained stable after an earlier decline. ② The budget announced a reduction in spending and a lower-than-expected government bond issuance scale. UK Treasury bond issuance tends to be short-term bonds, and the share of long-term bond issuance has dropped significantly. ③SamCartwright of Societe Generale said the budget announcement "may not have a substantial impact on the decision-making process because there are very little changes." ④Tradeweb data shows that the yield on the 10-year UK government bonds has almost no change, at 4.723%, and the yield on the 30-year UK government bonds is stable at 5.295%.
Spain's retail sales accelerated in February, non-food consumption rebounded significantly
①The latest data from the Spanish National Bureau of Statistics showed that retail sales increased by 3.6% year-on-year in February 2025, a significant increase from 2.3% after the previous value was revised upward. Seasonally adjusted, it increased by 1.3% month-on-month (the previous value decreased by 1.2%), indicating that consumption momentum continues to increase.
② Highlights of consumption structure:
Non-food categories rebounded strongly: avatradescn.comA year-on-year increase of 4.8% (the previous value is 2.2%), reflecting the improvement of the demand for optional consumption; stable consumption of essential consumption: food, beverage and tobacco maintained a stable growth of 2.9% (the previous value is 3%); positive month-on-month: ending two consecutive months of seasonal contraction and returning to the expansion range.
The public fiscal deterioration in France last year was lower than expected
The public fiscal deterioration in France was a small highlight for the French government, which is working to maintain business and family confidence in amid political, economic and fiscal storms. French statistical agency said on Thursday that French government spending nearly 170 billion euros more than revenue in 2024, equivalent to 5.8% of GDP. The French government has previously warned that the deficit this year could reach more than 6% of GDP. The deficit is expected to ease slightly by 2025, but will still be above 5%, far higher than the 3% upper limit set by European authorities. However, as Europe prepares to invest more in military and infrastructure this year and in the avatradescn.coming years, fiscal rules are expected to be relaxed.
3. Trends of major currency pairs before the New York Stock Exchange
Euro/USD: As of 20:20 Beijing time, the euro/USD rose, now at 1.0794, an increase of 0.37%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the EUR/USD was active in recent intraday trading, trying to regain some recent lost ground while venting oversold saturation in the stochastic indicators. Price tests downward correction of the trend line in the short term and rebounding downward again.
GBP/USD: As of 20:20 Beijing time, GBP/USD has risen, now at 1.2943, an increase of 0.42%. Before New York, the GBP/USD price fell slightly in recent intraday trading, continuing the downward correction trend as it trades within the short-term price channel, due to trading below 50 candle SMA, plus negative signals from the stochastic indicators, despite reaching oversold levels.
Spot gold: As of 20:20 Beijing time, spot gold rose, now at 3051.93, an increase of 1.10%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, gold prices rose in recent intraday trading, with the main upward trend dominated, and gold prices were actively supported as trading was above the 50-candle SMA, coupled with the positive signal from the stochastic indicators.
Spot silver: As of 20:20 Beijing time, spot silver rose, now at 34.060, an increase of 1.34%. Before New York, silver prices rose in recent intraday trading, while gathering positive momentum after support from SMAs that rely on 50 candles, dominating the main uptrend in the short term as prices move along the trend line.
Crude oil market: As of 20:20 Beijing time, U.S. oil fell, now at 69.560, a drop of 0.11%. U.S. crude oil prices fell in the latest intraday trading ahead of New York after key resistance of $70.00 remained unchanged, while prices sought bottoms to help them build momentum and get back on their feet, especially when negative signals appear at the stochastic indicators.
4. Institutional Perspective
Citi: Singapore's economy may be affected by global trade uncertainty
Citi analysts wrote in a report that Singapore's macroeconomic outlook may remain fragile because an open economy makes the country easierAffected by global trade. They said that while Singapore can avoid direct tariffs, a slowdown in global trade may drag down its overall growth momentum. Analysts pointed out that Singapore's trade volume with major U.S. trading partners affected by tariffs such as Mexico and Canada remains large. They said Singapore could be negatively affected if trade between these partners and the United States slowed.
Deutsche Bank: The US dollar is expected to benefit from the end of the month, especially against the Norwegian krone;
Deutsche Bank said the US dollar is expected to benefit from the end of the month, especially against the Norwegian krone. Deutsche Bank believes any weakness in the US dollar/Norwegian kroner will fade before the end of the month, as position flows could lead to large fluctuations in the pair. They pointed out that the strong performance of the Norwegian OBX index, as well as the very strong seasonal factors of the end-of-month trading day itself, are two key factors in the buying of the US dollar against the Norwegian krone. In addition, Deutsche Bank also said its 10-year seasonal factors indicate that demand for the U.S. dollar against the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar is the same on the end of the month trading day.
The above content is all about "[Aihua Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: Trump promotes automobile import tariff plan, and short-term trend analysis of spot gold, silver, crude oil, and foreign exchange on March 27". It is carefully avatradescn.compiled and edited by Aihua Avatrade Foreign Exchange Editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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