The US dollar index broke through the weekly line and was in a desperate situation! "Desperate" strengthens the severity of breaking

Asian Market Review

The US Index has broken the market at the weekly level, and failing to recover here will maintain a decline. As of now, the US dollar is priced at 98.18.

U.S. President Trump said on social platforms, "The golden rule of negotiation and success: those who own gold make rules." Spot gold opened high after hearing this and set a record high again.

Trump: Businessmen who criticize tariffs are not good at business, but what they really are not good at is politics;

Trump listed eight non-tariff "cheating" methods and named Japan and the EU.

The Trump administration has begun discussions to set up a working group to urgently deal with the crisis of imposing tariffs on China. Trump does not want tariffs to continue to be raised, and said he would reach an agreement with China within one month;

US media: Trump can no longer sit still and secretly hopes that the US Supreme Court will stop the tariff war. ⑤ US media said more than 700 protests broke out across the United States, opposing the US government's policies on mass firing federal employees, laying off institutions, and deporting immigration.

Director of the National Economic avatradescn.commission: Trump is studying whether firing Powell is an option. Republican lawmakers in the United States "reverse" bombarded Trump: the president has no right to fire the Federal Reserve Chairman.

Japanese media: Japan considers increasing U.S. rice and soybean imports to Trump.

Putin announced a 30-hour truce on Easter. Zelensky: Not enough, it is recommended to extend the ceasefire to 30 days. Russia and UkraineThey accused the other party of violating the ceasefire avatradescn.commitment. The ceasefire ended at 0:00 on April 21, Moscow time, but Peskov said there was no extension plan. Trump had previously warned that the United States may withdraw if there is no progress in negotiations.

The second round of indirect negotiations on nuclear issues between Iraq and the United States has ended. Foreign Minister Iraq: The talks are constructive and the next round of negotiations will be held on the 26th.

Source said that White House national security adviser Walz and Secretary of State Rubio agreed to launch a strike on Iran's nuclear capabilities.

ECB Management avatradescn.committee Villeroy: The inflation risks brought by trade tensions appear to be weak and may even decline.

The first large Japanese life insurance avatradescn.company announced its annual investment plan: increase its holdings of Japanese ultra-long-term government bonds and consider reducing foreign debt.

Summary of institutional views

Analyst David Scutt: Selling at highs in the United States and Japan is still the preferred strategy, focusing on the gains and losses

The yen still plays the role of safe-haven assets, rather than the trading target of the interest rate spread of the United States and Japan. The agenda of speeches by central bank officials this week was full, but given the high uncertainty, the impact of these speeches on the dollar against the yen is questionable. There are no important economic data released in the United States this week, and Japan's data agenda has become outdated. The focus of the next week should be on news related to U.S. trade policy and U.S. Treasury auction results. Good news for trade policy is expected to boost the US dollar, while negative news is the opposite. Usually the results of U.S. Treasury bond auctions are secondary factors, but this round of two-year, five-year and seven-year bond auctions will reveal foreign demand for U.S. Treasury bonds. Since the tariff "liberation day" in early April, the market has significantly reduced its holdings of US dollar assets, so the auction results are more important, especially the performance of indirect bidders deserves close attention.

In addition to the above incidents, speeches by central bank officials and economic data this week are less important. Recent upheavals in the macro environment have made economic data appear outdated and may not matter. The market response triggered by PMI data may fade away soon, especially the market is concerned that the data may not be true. The market is currently eager for "hard data", but apart from durable goods orders, most of the data this week are only secondary data.

Selling at highs in the U.S. and Japan this week is still the preferred strategy, as the price and momentum signals are still clearly bearish. After avatradescn.completely breaking the 141.65 support level, 139.6 will be the next target. On the upside, 144 is the resistance level, but the price has encountered selling pressure above 143 last week. In addition, investors should also pay attention to the gains and losses of the downward trend line support formed by the United States and Japan in February. Prices rebounded here many times, forming a pattern of slow down rather than drastic adjustments. If the trend line is broken, the bearish trend may accelerate.

Reuters market analyst: Liquidity scarcity will not change the process of de-dollarization, focus on the euro's target...

Australia, New Zealand and Europe are resurrected todayThe market is closed during the holidays, and the Asian market trade is light. But the euro continued to rise sharply against the US dollar this morning, piercing 1.15 at one point. If it can continue to break through 1.15, it is expected to test the November 2021 high of 1.1616. The monthly chart shows that the bottom support level is currently at the flat 100-month moving average at 1.1201. Today's support is at the hourly level at the one-shot equalization conversion line 1.1438, followed by the baseline below 1.1422.

Before new negotiations, the focus is temporarily shifted from U.S. tariffs. As investors continue to shun American assets, more focus turns to the dollar. It is worth noting that there will be 1 billion euros at 11450 tomorrow and 1.2 billion euros at 11390-114 tomorrow. Whether this can constitute support remains to be seen. But this morning, the yen buying was basically the same as the euro.

Facefield: The ECB will continue to cut interest rates in June and July

The ECB cut interest rates by 25 basis points as scheduled and deleted the statement that "the restriction of monetary policy has significantly weakened." By highlighting that “there is no better time for data dependency than now” and suggesting a balance of short-term inflation risk, we believe the ECB is fighting for wait-and-see time. The future policy direction will depend on economic data, market trends and a new round of staff forecasts, which will determine whether another rate cut is possible in June.

The recent economic situation shows slight signs of deflation, and we expect the overall inflation rate to fall below 2% from May and to 1.6% by the end of the year. Based on this, we still believe that the ECB will continue to cut interest rates in June and July, but remain cautious about further easing. Current policy stance shows that while ensuring inflation is under control, the central bank is closely monitoring the risks of economic downturn and challenges brought about by changes in the external environment.

Goldman Sachs: The ECB will continue to gradually cut interest rates at a 25 basis point level

In the euro zone, we expect real GDP to grow year-on-year in 2025 to be 0.7%. This forecast reflects the uncertainty brought by the US's imposition of high tariffs and the uncertainty brought by the euro zone, as well as the continued resistance faced by the manufacturing industry in the euro zone. However, as Europe expands its defense spending, Germany increases infrastructure investment, and some of the negative impacts from trade uncertainty gradually fade, we expect subsequent economic growth to improve.

We expect core inflation to drop to 1.9% by the end of 2025, mainly due to further cooling of inflation in the service industry and weakening demand, but higher tariffs may bring slight upward pressure. We expect the ECB to continue to gradually cut interest rates at a 25 basis point rate until it lowers the policy interest rate to 1.5% in September 2025.

The above content is all about "[Ava Avatrade Forex Official Website]: The US index broke the weekly line and fell into a desperate situation! "Sleeping in a desperate situation" strengthens the severity of the breaking level". It was carefully avatradescn.compiled and edited by the Avatrade Forex editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

After doing something, there will always be experience and lessons. To facilitate future work,Analyze, study, summarize, concentrate the experience and lessons of past work, and raise them to the theoretical level to understand.