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Hello everyone, today Avatrade Aihua Foreign Exchange will bring you "[Avatradescn": US dollar crisis? Historic bearishness and potential rebound struggle". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
Asian Market Review
On Tuesday, the US dollar index rebounded slightly and returned to above the 100 mark. As of now, the US dollar is quoted at 99.48.
Trump: The suspension of tariffs is because this is a transition period, out of the need for flexibility; all necessary licenses will be accelerated to Nvidia.
The United States initiates an investigation into the national security risks posed by key minerals and their derivatives that rely on imported processing.
U.S. Vice President Vance: The United States and Britain are likely to reach a "great agreement" on trade.
White House: There are currently more than 15 trade agreements under active consideration.
Countries respond to the US tariff policy:
Mori Ishiba stated: Japan is not ready to make major concessions to the United States and is not in a hurry to reach an agreement with the United States.
According to media reports, the EU does not expect the United States to withdraw most tariffs against the EU, and the two sides have made little progress in negotiations at present.
Canada will suspend tariffs on some US goods for 6 months, and will conditionally exempt some countermeasures against imported cars against the United States.
Mexico has stepped up its scrutiny, and fuel imports from the U.S. Texas border have stalled.
New York State's manufacturing industry shrank for the second consecutive month, with tariffs shrouding, and order expectations plummeted to the worst level after 9/11.
Trump will consider banning members of Congress from trading (stocks).
Bank of America Survey: Globalavatradescn.com投资者以创纪录的速度抛售美国股票。
The Israeli side did not promise to withdraw its troops, and Hamas refused to propose a ceasefire.
Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei: China and the United States are "very pessimistic" in the US-Iran talks.
Israeli Media: The Trump administration has informed Israel that it will start phased withdrawal from Syria within two months.
Summary of institutional views
Analyst David Scutt: Retail data may be a "false boom", but the "window of opportunity" of the dollar short squeeze has arrived
Almost everyone expects the end of the US economic exceptionalism, which poses danger to investors who have been looking forward to it, because once new information appears to question the mainstream view, the market will be in trouble. Tonight's U.S. retail sales data may bring this result, because before Trump announced the increase in tariffs on April 2, the market will temporarily boost sales. While this may be short-lived, it is enough to temporarily ease market concerns about a recession, thereby increasing the risk of short squeezes from the dollar.
Total sales are expected to grow by 1.3% as automobile-related spending is expected to accelerate. More important to U.S. GDP, the control group is expected to grow by 0.6%, while the figure has risen sharply by 1% in February. Once trade-related import anomalies are eliminated, the forecast results of the Atlanta Fed GDPNowcast model are likely to turn the U.S. first-quarter GDP forecast to positive. Even if the momentum of a surge in spending surge in April reversed sharply, strong March data would be enough to shake some of the more pessimistic views on the outlook for the U.S. economy.
In addition, while Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will also speak in the early hours of Thursday, given the great uncertainty of U.S. trade policy, it is difficult for his views to deviate from his speech earlier this month. Powell may assure the market that the Fed is ready to take action when economic or market risks arise, but like other investors, he is waiting for solid evidence that the increased uncertainty is affecting actual levels of activity, not just findings.
Morgan Stanley: Retail sales growth is supported by labor income
We predict that retail core sales in March will increase by 0.7% month-on-month, which is supported by the continued steady growth of labor income. The trading data for March also performed strongly, and seasonal factors also supported it. We expect total retail sales to grow by 1.2% month-on-month, with auto sales driven by strong demand before tariffs. Warm weather helped sales of building materials, and catering sales rebounded after weaker in February.
Goldman Sachs
We estimate core retail sales in March to increase by 0.5% month-on-month (excluding automobiles and gasolineand building materials), reflecting the continued growth in credit card consumption and the rebound after cold weather in January and February. We expect total retail sales to grow by 1.2%, a growth that is mainly due to a sharp rise in automobile sales, but the decline in gasoline prices has also had an impact.
Dutch International Bank: Bond losses are attributed to the deleveraging process, and the risk balance of the US dollar is still tilting downward
Yesterday, US Treasury Secretary Bescent denied the possibility of foreign sell-offs.他将债券损失归因于去杠杆化进程，同时强调财政部拥有多种市场维稳工具，但当前远未到动用这些工具的地步。
We believe that despite the widespread stabilization of the Treasury bond market, the risk balance of the US dollar is still tilting downward. Today's data will release the New York Fed Manufacturing Index, which is expected to rebound but is still in a negative range. Yesterday's data showed that the New York Fed's one-year inflation expectations rose by 0.4%, but the survey data was collected three weeks ago. A more immediate University of Michigan survey showed inflation expectations soaring to 6.7%, but the sample size is small and there may be political bias.
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