Oil prices fall below $60 per barrel to four-year lows, tariff war intensifies market collapse, investors sell gold to make up for losses

Basic news

On Monday (April 7, Beijing time), spot gold fell, once falling below the 3000 mark to 2991.19, a new low since March 17. As the intensified trade war triggered concerns about a global economic recession, investors sold gold to make up for their losses in the wider market collapse; U.S. crude oil fell nearly 3.5%, falling below the $60/barrel mark to $59.55/barrel, a new low since the end of April 2021. The global trade war escalated sharply, and investors were worried about the recession.

Stock Market

U.S. stocks closed down for the second consecutive day last Friday, with the Nasdaq confirmed to be in a bear market, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average confirmed to be in a revised region. The escalation of the global trade war triggered the largest sell-off since the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Dow Jones Industrial Index, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Index both hit the biggest two-day drop since the COVID-19 pandemic caused global panic during US President Trump's first term. Last Thursday and Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 9.3%, the S&P 500 fell 10.5%, and the Nasdaq fell 11.4%.

The impact of Trump's avatradescn.comprehensive tariffs has exacerbated concerns about a global recession, with U.S. avatradescn.companies evaporating trillions of dollars in market value. Investor panic is growing, with the CBOE volatility index closing at its highest level since April 2020.

Investors have sold stocks since Trump raised tariff barriers to their highest levels in more than a century late last Wednesday, fearing that U.S. trading partners may retaliate by raising their own trade barriers.

NaThe Stark Index fell 5.82% to 15,587.79 last Friday, confirming that the index is in a bear market avatradescn.compared to the closing record high of 20173.89 points set on December 16. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 5.avatradescn.com50% to 38,314.86 points, confirming that it is in the correction zone avatradescn.compared with the record closing high of 45,014.04 points set on December 4.

The S&P 500 fell 5.97% to close at 5074.08 points, the lowest closing level in 11 months.

Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, said: "How bad is now depends on the government's avatradescn.commitment to this series of policies, and it is obvious that the market has voted against them."

Many governments around the world began responding to Trump's tariff statements last Friday, which further hits investors' confidence in avoiding a global recession. JPMorgan said it expects the chances of the global economy to fall into recession by the end of the year to be 60%, higher than the previous 40%.

Federal Chairman Powell made his first public speech since Trump announced the increase in tariffs. He said the scale of the new tariffs was "larger than expected" and that the economic impact, including rising inflation and slowing growth, could also be greater, and warned that it was too early to know what the Fed should take to respond correctly.

The decline in U.S. Treasury yields dragged down further U.S. bank stocks. The sector is under pressure worldwide, with the prospect of interest rate cuts by central banks in many countries and the blow to economic growth from tariffs that will weaken British Airways profitability. The S&P Bank sector fell 7.3%.

The 11 sectors of the S&P Index all fell more than 4.5%, with the energy sector leading the decline for the second consecutive day, down 8.7%, and U.S. crude oil prices fell 7.3%.

Golden market

Gold fell more than 3% last Friday, erasing gains earlier last week as a heightened trade war sparked concerns about a global recession, and investors sold gold to avatradescn.compensate for their losses in the wider market collapse. Spot gold was $3030.66 per ounce, down 2.6%, hitting an intraday low of $3016.49 earlier. It hit a record high of $3,167.57 last Thursday. US gold futures were $3,049.20, down 2.3%. Technically, the spot gold price successfully stood above the 21-day moving average of US$3023.

Suki Cooper, an analyst at Standard Chartered Bank, said: "We tend to see gold as a liquid asset that meets margin requirements elsewhere, so it is not uncommon for gold to sell out after a risk event, given its role in the portfolio. ItsPerformance is in line with historical trends. "

Burned by strong central bank purchases and its overall appeal as a security hedge for economic and geopolitical uncertainty, gold is still up about 15.6% this year.

Traders also evaluated better-than-expected U.S. jobs data. "I think (non-farm jobs data) will help the Fed continue to postpone interest rate cuts," said Alex Ebkarian, chief operating officer of Allegiance Gold. 2%, to $29.59 per ounce, the worst performance since September 2020 last week. Platinum fell 3.6% to $918.35; palladium fell 1.9% to $910.94, both recording weekly declines. Oil prices plummeted 7% last Friday, the lowest closing level in more than three years, with a sharp escalating global trade war and investors fearing a recession. Trump raised tariff barriers to more than a century After the highest level, many countries are ready for revenge.

avatradescn.commodities including gas, soybeans and gold fell sharply, and global stock markets fell sharply. Investment bank JPMorgan said it currently believes that the possibility of a global recession by the end of the year rose from 40% to 60%.

Brent crude oil futures fell 6.5%, with a settlement price of $65.58 per barrel; U.S. crude oil futures fell 7.4%, with a settlement price of $61.99. Earlier in the session, the Rent crude oil futures once fell to $64.03, while U.S. crude oil futures fell to $60.45, both of which were four-year lows. By percentage, Brent crude oil hit its biggest weekly decline in a year and a half, with the largest weekly decline in U.S. crude oil in two years.

UnitedICAP energy expert Scott Shelton said: "I think it may be close to the fair value of crude oil until we see some signs that demand has actually decreased. ”

He warned, “My opinion is that U.S. crude oil may be very volatile in the short term and will rise to the mid-to-high end of the $50 range,” and warned that demand will be affected in the current market environment.

Feder Chairman Powell said last Friday that the scale of President Trump’s new tariffs is “larger than expected”, and that the economic impact, including rising inflation and slowing growth, may also be greater. He also warned that it is too early to know what the Fed should take to respond. /p>

OPEC+ Oil-producing countries' alliance decided to advance production increases, further putting pressure on oil prices. The alliance's current goal is to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in May, avatradescn.compared with the previous planned scale of 135,000 barrels per day. Goldman Sachs analysts sharply lowered Brent and U.S. crude oil targets in December 2025 to $5 to $66 and $62.

Forex market

The dollar rebounded against major currencies such as the euro and the yen last Friday, after Fed Chairman Powell concededIt believes that the impact of the US imposition of tariffs is greater than expected, and it also releases a cautious tone for future easing policies. Powell said tariffs increase the risk of rising inflation and slowing growth, highlighting the difficulties Fed policymakers face. The Australian dollar hit a five-year low against the dollar.

Peter Vassallo, Forex Portfolio Manager at BNP Paribass. "This is a more hawkish reaction, he is concerned about the impact of tariffs on inflation. The U.S. economy has been coping with higher inflation, which may have a greater impact on the U.S. since the U.S. imposes tariffs and will apply to all imported goods, which may have a greater impact on the U.S. "The concerns about inflation are real, and it makes sense considering that inflation has been above the target for five years."

Powell's speech came after data released earlier showed that non-farm jobs increased by 228,000 in March, well above the expected 135,000, and a revised 117,000 in February. The unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%. A highly-watched inflation indicator this week will show how much impact the prices of goods and services have on consumers.

The euro fell 0.95% against the US dollar at the end of the trading day to $1.10,947. Last Thursday, the euro jumped 1.8%, the largest single-day gain since November 2022, and once hit a high of $1.1147 since September 30. The euro's weekly gains were the largest since March 3.

The market predicts that the Fed will cut interest rates four times for the remainder of the year. The market has also fully digested the ECB's expectation that the ECB would cut interest rates three times before December, at 25 basis points each time. The U.S. dollar index rose 0.98% to 103, and fell sharply by 1.9% last Thursday, its worst performance since November 2022.

The Swiss franc rose 0.6% against the euro and hit a six-month high against the dollar. The pound fell 1.61% to $1.2889, and it had surged to $1.3207 the day before, the first time since October 3. The pound hit its biggest weekly decline since February 24.

The Australian dollar fell to its lowest level since early April 2020, with New York falling 4.42% at $0.60490 at the end of the trading day. The New York dollar fell 3.42% to $0.55,960. The Australian dollar hit its biggest weekly decline since March 2020. The Canadian dollar fell 0.81% against the US dollar to 1.4208 Canadian dollars. The dollar recovered lost ground against the yen, up 0.58% to 146.92 yen. On the previous trading day, the dollar fell 2.2% against the yen, once falling to its lowest since October 2, of 145.19 yen. Last week, the dollar fell the biggest since early February.

International News

The British Prime Minister responded to the additional tariffs imposed by the United States: the world we know no longer exists

On April 6, local time, British Prime Minister Stamer said that with the so-called "reciprocal tariffs" in the United States, "the world we know no longer exists." He will continue to push for an economic agreement with the United States to avoid some tariffs. also, he also said that the British government is "ready to use industrial policies to help British businesses protect themselves from storms". Starmer said the UK will work hard to strengthen alliances with other countries and reduce trade barriers and reduce the impact of "global market shocks" on the UK.

U.S. policy is uncertain. Germany is considering withdrawing 1,200 tons of gold reserves in the US

For decades, Germany has stored more than 1,200 tons of gold reserves in the US Federal Reserve Bank vault, with a total value of over 100 billion euros at the current price. According to recent reports from media in Western countries such as Germany and the United Kingdom, due to the uncertain economic policies of this US government, Germany is considering withdrawing its gold reserves from the United States.

Iran responded to Trump's letter: Direct negotiations will not be conducted, but indirect negotiations will not be opposed.

Iran's chief of staff of the Iranian armed forces revealed that Iran's response to Trump's letter emphasized the pursuit of regional peace and tranquility. On the nuclear issue, Iran has no intention of manufacturing nuclear weapons, just to meet the nuclear energy needs of its own people. Iran will not engage in direct negotiations, but does not oppose indirect negotiations, because Iran will not block the road and will reserve space for sincere dialogue. In addition, Iran responded to Trump's letter and stated that the United States was the most untrustworthy and unreliable party in the past negotiations, so Iran had no trust in the United States. Iran is not a warlike country, but it will never succumb to hegemony and power and will resolutely fight. Iran will make a heavy and irreparable fight back to any violation of Iran's sovereignty and interests.

Bill Ackerman: Trump may suspend tariffs on April 7

Bill Ackerman, billionaire investor and founder of Pershing Square Capital Management, is considering the possibility that Trump may suspend its controversial tariff proposal on April 7. "People think that President Trump's phone kept ringing (before the tariffs came into effect). The reality is that he did not have enough time to reach an agreement before the tariff plan took effect. Therefore, I would not be surprised if Trump announced the postponement of the implementation of tariffs on Monday morning so that there would be time to reach an agreement."

News said that the OPEC+ ministerial meeting kept the oil policy unchanged

Some media quoted two sources as saying that the OPEC+ ministerial meeting held on Saturday kept the oil production policy unchanged and was discussing avatradescn.compliance with the production cut targets and plans for some member states to avatradescn.compensate for production exceeding quotas.

The US meteorological agencies may affect disaster warning due to shortage of staffing in layoffs

The strong storm system has swept across the Midwest and southern U.S. in recent days, with severe weather killing many people. According to data obtained by the Associated Press on the 4th, due to the significant layoffs of the US federal government, 8 of the 122 weather stations of the National Weather Service currently have a job vacancy rate of more than 35%, many of which are located in Arkansas, which was affected by severe weather earlier this week; 55 weather stations have a job vacancy rate of 20%, which constitutes a "serious staff shortage." Meteorological experts worry that it is currently in the US weatherWhen disasters occur frequently, the shortage of personnel in the meteorological department may have an impact on disaster warning and post-disaster loss assessment work.

French Prime Minister says Trump's tariff policy may reduce France's GDP growth rate by 0.5 percentage points

French Prime Minister François? Beiru said in an interview on Saturday that it was because of U.S. President Donald? Trump's tariff policy, France's GDP growth rate may drop by 0.5 percentage points. "The imposition of these outrageous tariffs will trigger a global crisis. The risk of unemployment is high, and so is the risk of an economic slowdown," he said. According to the plan announced by Trump, France will face a universal tariff of 20%, just like other EU countries.

Musk hopes the United States and Europe will move towards a zero-tariff free trade zone

Eron? Musk told participants at a Coalition event in Italy that he hopes to establish a "zero tariff" system between the United States and Europe, thereby effectively creating a "free trade zone" between Europe and North America. Musk faces Italian Deputy Prime Minister Matteo on Saturday? Salvini said: "In my opinion, the ideal situation is that both Europe and the United States should develop in the direction of zero tariffs. This is what I hope to see."

Zelensky: The key points of the draft mineral agreement will be heard this week

According to the Ukrainian National News Agency on the 4th local time, Ukrainian President Zelensky said at a press conference that day that Ukraine has selected a law firm, which will represent Ukraine to negotiate on the mineral agreement with the United States. Zelensky said he will hold a meeting with the Ukrainian team early next week to listen to the key points of the draft agreement, which will meet Ukrainian needs and reflect the "fairness" of the agreement. After this, the Ukrainian technical team will prepare to go to the United States to start a dialogue with US personnel. Zelensky said that Ukraine is currently negotiating through a technical team and he will not go to the United States for the time being.

Analysts: The development of artificial intelligence in the United States may be backfired by tariff policies

Since US President Trump took office, he has been promoting the development of artificial intelligence in the United States. However, analysts said on the 3rd that in the face of the so-called "reciprocal tariff" policy that the United States is about to implement, the artificial intelligence infrastructure projects built by technology giants in the United States may be backfired. According to Reuters citing data from the US Census Bureau on the 3rd, electronic products were the second largest category of imported goods in the United States last year, including smartphones, personal avatradescn.computers and data center devices, with a total market value of nearly US$486 billion. Analysts at Bernstein Research in the United States estimated that the import of data processing equipment in the United States was about $200 billion last year. Several analysts believe that the new tariff policy will pose a threat to cloud service providers such as Microsoft, Amazon, and Google's parent avatradescn.company Alphabet.

Domestic News

my country's consumer market was full of spring in the first quarter, my country's offline consumer market accelerated to heat up

The latest high-frequency data released by the National Information Center shows that in the first quarter of this year,Driven by the accelerated effects of various consumption-promoting policies and the effect of the Spring Festival holiday, my country's consumer market has accelerated and shown a positive momentum. The rapid recovery of offline consumption has become a highlight of the consumer market in the first quarter. The National Information Center's offline consumption hottest index increased by 14.2% year-on-year in the first quarter of this year, up 9.1 percentage points from the previous quarter; of which March increased by 20.0% year-on-year, 4.7 percentage points higher than the previous two months, and the growth rate continued to rise. The enthusiasm for traveling during the Qingming Festival and spring is high. The National Information Center monitors the popularity of Internet searches, which shows that the search popularity of multiple keywords related to Qingming Festival travel and outings has increased by more than 4 times recently.

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